MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Aaron]

So buyback to start next week. The $30m ‘buys’ them about 2.7% of the company

A admission of failure from a Board that lacks drive and ambition

But if it gives instos and other shareholders the warm fuzzies it must be good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...124/311607.pdf

Were share buy backs even legal in NZ prior to the Companies Act 1993? Weren't buybacks recognised as a tool for share price manipulation in the good old days. Unfortunately too young to know. 1980s onwards would have seen buybacks as legitimate along with targeted inflation and trickle down economics but we might soon come back round to the old ways of thinking.

Sorry not Metlifecare specific so feel free to ignore.

[winner69]

Were share buy backs even legal in NZ prior to the Companies Act 1993? Weren't buybacks recognised as a tool for share price manipulation in the good old days. Unfortunately too young to know. 1980s onwards would have seen buybacks as legitimate along with targeted inflation and trickle down economics but we might soon come back round to the old ways of thinking.

Sorry not Metlifecare specific so feel free to ignore.

Buybacks a bit of a rort really. In Us last 15 years $7 trillion of buy backs and companybdebt is up $7 trillion ...hmmm

But while number of shares on issue (supply) has dwindled about 1% annually the passive money (index funds etc) have had to put their money somewhere (demand) so US markets keep going up....even though per share fundamentals aren’t that great....hmmmm

Aaron - you’ll get your big opportunity one day

[winner69]

Way share price is going no doubt all these free shares will be ‘vested’

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...321/311876.pdf

[Beagle]

There are a lot of checks and balances surrounding buybacks. Can't be over 5% of issued capital in any one year and has to be executed in a manner that doesn't influence the share price. As I understand it (and I am certainly not putting myself out as an expert on the subject), they cannot be a market maker, (set new share price high's).

I don't have any issues with it and in this case its clearly going to be eps accretive as the share price is still trading at a substantial discount to NTA and the forward PE is very cheap. This is ostensibly a property company trading at a very deep discount to a relatively easy measure of value to objectively quantify, (its net tangible asset backing that's valued every year by independent valuers).

Where buy-backs for some other companies get a bit murky is where the value of a company is not so easily and objectively quantifiable, i.e. where the majority of the value is made up of intangible assets.

Anyway...back to real estate...looks like the sleeping giant that is Auckland real estate is waking up which is great for MET as they have most of their villages there
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...+November+2019

[winner69]

Beagle, you know that in the long run this buyback won’t make one iota of difference to MET’s fundamentals

But in the short term the directors saying its good, share price doesn’t recognise the value in the company, it’s eps accretive blah blah blah the market get excited

Good stuff for short to medium term punters who’ll take a punt ..and hope for the best.

I can’t see you being a long term holder of MET so good on you having a go to make a buck while verybody is so excited ...but watch that chart

[allfromacell]

There are a lot of checks and balances surrounding buybacks. Can't be over 5% of issued capital in any one year and has to be executed in a manner that doesn't influence the share price. As I understand it (and I am certainly not putting myself out as an expert on the subject), they cannot be a market maker, (set new share price high's).

I don't have any issues with it and in this case its clearly going to be eps accretive as the share price is still trading at a substantial discount to NTA and the forward PE is very cheap. This is ostensibly a property company trading at a very deep discount to a relatively easy measure of value to objectively quantify, (its net tangible asset backing that's valued every year by independent valuers).

Where buy-backs for some other companies get a bit murky is where the value of a company is not so easily and objectively quantifiable, i.e. where the majority of the value is made up of intangible assets.

Anyway...back to real estate...looks like the sleeping giant that is Auckland real estate is waking up which is great for MET as they have most of their villages there
https://www.landlords.co.nz/article/...+November+2019

Hi Beagle,

I know you prefer the medium which is looking positive and that's great but I think it's worth pointing out the HPI chart still looks very flat for Auckland, prices in the city have only increased 6.7% over the past 5 years. Rest of the country marching on relentlessly though.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...growth-last-12

[winner69]

Hi Beagle,

I know you prefer the medium which is looking positive and that's great but I think it's worth pointing out the HPI chart still looks very flat for Auckland, prices in the city have only increased 6.7% over the past 5 years. Rest of the country marching on relentlessly though.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...growth-last-12

The 6.7% is compounding growth rate ...ie 6.7% per year ...not too shabby

[allfromacell]

The 6.7% is compounding growth rate ...ie 6.7% per year ...not too shabby

Yes that's actually still very good! Didn't see the *

[winner69]

Yes that's actually still very good! Didn't see the *

I think the author of the article didn’t notice it either

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,

I know you prefer the medium which is looking positive and that's great but I think it's worth pointing out the HPI chart still looks very flat for Auckland, prices in the city have only increased 6.7% over the past 5 years. Rest of the country marching on relentlessly though.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...growth-last-12

Worth noting that despite that underlying profit has basically doubled in the last 5 years from $46.0m to $90.5m, (average compound growth rate of 15% per annum), as to and embedded value at FY19 balance date is up to a whopping $281,000 per unit which gives a big clue as to future profit growth.