MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[RTM]

Who did they sell them to?
Other investors? Owner occupiers?

Sorry, don’t know. I will check over Xmas and let you know.
Good question.

[dln]

Thanks.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out on the larger scale.
Does this mean more houses becoming available to potential occupiers (albeit, with affordability still an issue) or are there just bigger players hoovering them up as more rentals for their fleet.

[limmy]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+23+Dec+2019
North of $7 being talked about. I'd be very surprised if they hadn't got price agreement already as if they hadn't we wouldn't be in a trading halt.
Puts a rocket under the rest of the sector.

Thanks Mr. Beagle, I think your posts must have helped a lot of people see the value of MET, getting in before the halt.

[Beagle]

You're most welcome Its been "quite a ride" since the low $4's in October.

[Beagle]

I reckon a takeover target - like it better now Beagle?

Under NTA. Brilliant locations and plenty of brownfield potential. Redevelop sites to include continuum of care and sit back and watch the money roll

From early October 2019.
Thankyou very much. I want to acknowledge that you are the one that started me thinking really, really hard about this one.

[dabsman]

Sweet as mate. You help a lot of people focus on particular shares so I'm glad I helped you in a small way

All I'm worried about at present is the black caps and hoping I didnt miss christmas with the family for them to not turn up!

Seriously I've pored money into retirement shares for 3 years. I just couldnt get over that they have stock levels that gets bigger and bigger each year and each individual item of stock goes up and up in value and the real kicker is they get to sell the same item again and again and again. Imagine that!

MET was simply looked at thru the lens of water-tightness and if they had factored it in then why still the deep discount to NTA. Not really anything more than that. I bought quite a bit at $4.38 so it's been good to me. In fact the last 3 months have been massive with ARV, SUM and RYM and even OCA moving along strongly on top of this one. A few more quarters like this and I can sell up and retire somewhere tropical!

[limmy]

From early October 2019.
Thankyou very much. I want to acknowledge that you are the one that started me thinking really, really hard about this one.

Yes, thanks to you Mr. Beagle and Mr. Dabsman many of us have a merrier Christmas this year.
It is very nice of you to share the opportunity, with the rest of us.

[Yoda]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...a-premium.html
the opportunity was fortold 9months ago ...

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...a-premium.html
the opportunity was fortold 9months ago ...

A good article but to be honest they had been saying that for quite some time.

https://www.marketscreener.com/METLI...401/consensus/
If you scroll down to the timeline of consensus recommendations you'll see that analysts were almost universally very positive about MET from as far back as 2018, (and indeed, not showing on the attached link, for all of 2017 as well), when it was ~ $6.50 and if you followed their recommendations blindly without a thought for technical analysis or an understanding of what the market was really concerned about, (Auckland real estate prices and the need for MET to change their business model towards a more continuum of care), you would have badly underperformed the market and this sector.

The free lesson and reminder here is technical analysis is very, very valuable. I waited for a confirmed 3 month base in the share price in the low $4's which occurred over winter 2019 and early spring and by the time there was a clear break out from that baseline share price support anecdotal evidence was beginning to mount that the Auckland market was also breaking out of its fairly lengthy price malaise.

TA was then firing off some compelling BUY signals and added to the very strong fundamental analysis such that a compelling investment case clearly existed. My nose for a feed then started screaming at me to buy even though in my head I didn't really want to go there. I simply couldn't ignore the way loud TA signals lined up with compelling value any longer and had to start buying in October. This is a very good example that great money can be made after (and not before), strong technical analysis signals confirm deep value fundamental analysis. When strong TA and FA line up that's when one should really sit up and take serious notice.

If we look at TA now for the rest of the sector its perhaps worth noting that ARV, RYM and SUM are at or about fresh all time high's with nothing but blue sky's ahead of them. OCA on the other hand is struggling to clearly make a break out from its historical high some time back of $1.23. I don't see a compelling FA case for RYM at the current level, (forward PE of 32) so in my opinion money released from this takeover is probably best directed to SUM or ARV. (trader Jackson will probably be pleased to see me say that).

Anyway...bring on tomorrow and hopefully $7.25 or maybe, really make my day and make it a little bit more

[winner69]

No need to bother with TA or consensus targets or any of that stuff - the BIGGEST BUY SIGNAL for MET was when the price drifted to about 33% of RYM’s share price ...in August around the $4.20 / $4.30 mark