MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[winner69]

I think we are in for an interesting time ahead with this one. Looking at where the rest of the sector was priced, (even before the first noises of a takeover of MET), nobody can make the case that $7 is a compelling price given the better prospects for Auckland real estate and the companies own enhanced development pipeline. Really, it is the absolute minimum possible price anyone could recommend, with a straight face.

Lets not forget that there are three interested parties and there could well be a competitive bidding situation.

I think Glen Sowry could have done a lot better to appraise the market of the prospects for 2020 to keep the market better informed and I for one will be looking for a very clear report on the current state of the business before making any decision to sell my shares.

Agree - slack Board and management. Board in particular just resting on their ‘laurels’

No wonder NZ Super Fund get pissed off and forced all this

And beagle me old mate ..it will be decided for us to sell our shares (if still holding) ..our say won’t count for much except as a token protest.

[Beagle]

Agree - slack Board and management. Board in particular just resting on their ‘laurels’

No wonder NZ Super Fund get pissed off and forced all this

And beagle me old mate ..it will be decided for us to sell our shares (if still holding) ..our say won’t count for much except as a token protest.

Unless I am out of date with the takeovers regulations, (which is quite possible), lets not forget buddy that they can't force a takeover unless they get to 90% and acquire the rest through compulsory acquisition.
When was the last time there was a takeover with acknowledgement from the board that there are three interested parties ? Doesn't the board have an obligation to try and get the best price from those three ? Maybe major shareholders have signed a deal to sell at $7 that includes the usual caveat of unless there's a superior offer forthcoming as is quite commonly the case ?

I'm not so sure as you and others this is a completely done deal at $7. Another higher bid wouldn't surprise me at all.

Consider this too. How well has staying on the register as a minority shareholder worked out for RBD shareholders !
With the rest of the sector priced where it is and with an already very fulsome load of SUM shares in my portfolio I certainly think staying on as a minority shareholder is on the cards for me. Incoming board and management are highly likely to be a LOT more motivated than the current lot !

MET occupy a very interesting space in the Auckland market with a lot of their smaller units under half the average price of an Auckland home. I'm in no hurry to sell.

[winner69]

Lets not forget buddy that they can't force a takeover unless they get to 90% and acquire the rest through compulsory acquisition.
When was the last time there was a takeover with acknowledgement from the board that there are three interested parties ?
I'm not so sure as you and others this is a completely done deal at $7.

Consider this too. How well has staying on the register as a minority shareholder worked out for RBD shareholders !
With the rest of the sector priced where it is and with an already very fulsome load of SUM shares in my portfolio I certainly think staying on as a minority shareholder is on the cards for me. Incoming board and management are highly likely to be a LOT more motivated than the current lot !

MET occupy a very interesting space in the Auckland market with a lot of their smaller units under half the average price of an Auckland home.

Agree announcements have been rather obtuse so anything could happen

But in saying that if things are still up in the air and nowhere being finalised then the announcements so far have bordered on the irresponsible.

It reads as a Scheme of Arrangement with a yes vote recommended by the Directors .....hopefully with the rider ‘unless a better offer is forthcoming’ ....that way only requires 75% voting YES at the shareholders meeting.

[Beagle]

Irresponsible ?...maybe. Perhaps they should just lock this whole thing down in an extended trading halt until all 3 interested parties have had time to do thorough due diligence and the most interested has presented their best offer. If that's a few weeks then so be it. Who cares, its the holiday's anyway.

My hope is that on Monday they extend the trading halt again to give all parties extra time with the hope shareholders get a better result. $7.00 is pretty miserable for a company that has grown underlying earnings at an average of 15% per annum for the last 5 years, (average across the property cycle). Probably only a FY20 PE of 14 times earnings. Heck, a couple of years ago it was $6.50 and the whole sector has moved (in percentage terms), a lot further north than 8% in that time !!

[limmy]

Irresponsible ?...maybe. Perhaps they should just lock this whole thing down in an extended trading halt until all 3 interested parties have had time to do thorough due diligence and the most interested has presented their best offer. If that's a few weeks then so be it. Who cares, its the holiday's anyway.

My hope is that on Monday they extend the trading halt again to give all parties extra time with the hope shareholders get a better result. $7.00 is pretty miserable for a company that has grown underlying earnings at an average of 15% per annum for the last 5 years, (average across the property cycle). Probably only a FY20 PE of 14 times earnings. Heck, a couple of years ago it was $6.50 and the whole sector has moved (in percentage terms), a lot further north than 8% in that time !!

I agree, the $7 bid which is essentially paying for the NTA only, doesn't recognise the full value of the company, its Brand its Goodwill and its recent years' good performance. They might have a pleasant surprise announcement on Monday at noon time ?

[Beagle]

I agree, the $7 bid which is essentially paying for the NTA only, doesn't recognise the full value of the company, its Brand its Goodwill and its recent years' good performance. They might have a pleasant surprise announcement on Monday at noon time ?

Tomorrow will be interesting alright.

I think there's a pretty good chance one of the other two interested parties will be prepared to pay more than $7 because the 5 year compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 15% per annum includes 3 tough years for the Auckland property market. (This is better than RYM's CAGR over the last 5 years)

One party will most likely put a stake in the ground at $7 tomorrow but I would not be surprised if another party is prepared to trump that in due course.

Hopefully one of the other interested parties is prepared to pay at least some modest premium to NTA because of MET's commendable track record of growth. I would like to think that shareholders would at least get something for the intangible assets / goodwill, time will tell.

I don't see any reason to rush to sell when the trading halt is lifted, that's for sure !

[Bjauck]

Tomorrow will be interesting alright.

I think there's a pretty good chance one of the other two interested parties will be prepared to pay more than $7 because the 5 year compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 15% per annum includes 3 tough years for the Auckland property market. (This is better than RYM's CAGR over the last 5 years)..

Cagr/5yrs= 15%pa

From Sharesight, I see the MET annual return (SP increase+dividend) is about 8% pa over the past 5 years. (RYM’s is 16% pa)

Infratil’s exit and The leaky buildings issue has been overly dampening market Expectations? Three potential suitors see a good deal in their sights?

[Beagle]

Agreed. I am trying to remember the last time a company was in play and there were three suitors ? Another case doesn't spring readily to mind.
$7 looks too cheap to me...I think there's at least a 50% chance of a more competitive bid in the near future.

[King1212]

Article on NBR said MET has accepted conditional $7 a share....

[Snow Leopard]

We will see what tomorrow (or the day after, or the next trading day after that, or etc) brings, but a offer at $7 is pretty good.
People can huff & puff all they want but this is a company with issues.

Having said that, like every other full or partial takeover of an NZX company I am opposed to it.