MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Balance]

Its very early days. I remain hopeful of a more reasonable competing offer in the near future.

Given my intention to hold through until I accept the $7 offer, let's hope you are right - a nice bonus for 2020!

[couta1]

No breaking news overnight by the looks of it

Market resigned to getting the $7 it seems

Well 33% in 5 weeks (thanks to Couts Theorem) and another 15% in about 2 weeks is pretty cool,

Going to sell some ....but need to keep some as entrance fee to the Beagle Barking Show at the shareholders meeting

I'm nearly all out now winner, I like to put my gift horses in the stable and look to buy a gift elsewhere.

[Beagle]

I'm nearly all out now winner, I like to put my gift horses in the stable and look to buy a gift elsewhere.

Keep a ticket to the dog show, it'll be more entertaining than a Cruft's one https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...%26FORM%3DVDRE

[couta1]

Probably that EQT outfit stacking the buy side, mop as many up as they can to cement the deal.

[limmy]

Already been pretty fully discussed today. 20 cents extra represents an annualised rate of return of approx. 7.2% per annum for the five complete months to the end of May. Scheme implementation could be early May so not possible to give an exact return as it might be just over 4 months and thus as much as 700 / 680 = 2.94% gain in 4 months = 8.82% per annum.

No scheme implementation agreement is certain so its not risk free, needs overseas investment office approval for one thing.

I believe the price is so close as the market quite correctly assesses there is a realistic chance of a higher competing bid. (We know there are two other interested parties) Obviously there will be differences of opinion on this point so some are happy to take the money and run as the annualised return given the execution risk isn't really especially compelling on its own, so there are many sellers and buyers, hence the very high volume.

As stated earlier I am fundamentally opposed to the bid on the basis that :-
1. Nothing is being paid for the intangible assets of the company.
2. Nothing is being paid for earnings from 1 June 2019 to May 2020.
3. Nothing is being paid for the increase in the value of all assets from 30 June 2019 to May 2020.

I think the acquirers offer is opportunistic and below fair value and am not selling unless legally compelled to do so under the takeover in due course. Others will take a quick buck and move on. I never bought this company to make a quick buck, I bought it as a deep value growth stock because of its compound average growth rate of 15% and I don't see the current bid as being fair and reasonable and I will be making my viewpoint known very forcefully at the forthcoming shareholders meeting to vote on this proposal.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...608/314713.pdf

My hope is the valuation appraisal report really is independent and the expert appointed understands that MET's average underlying earnings per share growth rate over the last 5 years has actually exceeded the industry benchmark of Ryman. If that report has at the bottom of its range a figure higher than $7.00 then I would expect that the offer will need to be revised to at least the minimum of the valuation range so there is a chance a higher bid could be made to be forthcoming through this process. Whether such a report is truly independent is certainly debateable in my opinion. That or another party making a higher offer, either way $7.00 is the absolute minimum.

Thanks Mr. Beagle. You've given me an excellent response and I think you have a thorough understanding of the whole situation. I'm with you in the hope that the valuation range will exceed the $7 on offer, and/or a better bidder shows up in the new year.

[couta1]

1.1 mill odd shares on the bid side $6.80-$6.81, as if retail punters are going to sell them that many. Lol

[Beagle]

A whopping 4.5m shares done yesterday at that level and today so far, less than 40,000. I think its fair to say that the number of shareholders prepared to sell at ~ $6.80 is drying up quite fast

[Bjauck]

1.1 mill odd shares on the bid side $6.80-$6.81, as if retail punters are going to sell them that many. Lol

Unfortunately, to me, it seems some big holders think this is likely to be the only serious offer although MET is still in the play.

Consents notwithstanding, EQT seems set to add a chunk of NZ’s retirement residential real estate to its portfolio with an impressive performance record. Swedish pension funds will be the beneficiary from the outlays of NZ pensioners. I think it is a pity for NZ as a whole.

And yep to a previous poster. The times NZ companies do make overseas investments, they often seem to get dogs. Whereas overseas companies do seem to snaffle cheaply so many good NZ pedigrees.

[limmy]

1.1 mill odd shares on the bid side $6.80-$6.81, as if retail punters are going to sell them that many. Lol

I'm not selling them my shares. If they can see the value at this price range, that's good enough reason for me to hold. I've always thought of MET as one of the 3 main companies in the rest home sector that I should own. In a way, I'm a bit disappointed that I'll be losing one of my long term hold companies.

[couta1]

So if EQT are buying on market currently then the more shares they buy around current price the less they have to pay $7 for, very cunning.