MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

**winner69** · 03-02-2020, 08:44 AM

The independent report probably won’t be out until after results announcement

They will be able to see what MET have managed to do to the numbers and readjust the valuation range accordingly

Be embarrassing for the Board if it’s a bonza of a result and NTA has gone up to $7.40 ...but then they might ensure it’s bad as report a loss.....and don’t forget they knew the result when they said YES YES please

Who knows but you never know what the money men get up to

**limmy** · 03-02-2020, 09:09 AM

Hopefully, we'll be pleansantly surprised on the announcement day. I think it's the 26th of this month. Only about just over 3 weeks away.

**Beagle** · 03-02-2020, 12:42 PM

Originally Posted by winner69

The independent report probably won’t be out until after results announcement

They will be able to see what MET have managed to do to the numbers and readjust the valuation range accordingly

Be embarrassing for the Board if it’s a bonza of a result and NTA has gone up to $7.40 ...but then they might ensure it’s bad as report a loss.....and don’t forget they knew the result when they said YES YES please

Who knows but you never know what the money men get up to

On the other hand there's plenty of time for this virus to grow into what could realistically be described as an "adverse event" and the deal could fall over.

**BlackPeter** · 03-02-2020, 02:07 PM

FWIW ... sold this morning out of MET. Not that I am too concerned about the takeover failing, but I see limited further up potential for the share price, but some down potential in case the takeover turns for some reason to custard (like lack of OIO approval or ongoing anti virus fear attacks).

Given the current viral fear mongering tsunami across social media it just might be better to have some more cash at hand to mop up various stock bargains after they have been hammered down rather than waiting for receiving 12 cents more for the share in May ...

Love thy scaremongers and shorters ... well, I don't.

**Beagle** · 03-02-2020, 02:28 PM

1. The longer we go on with no superior bid the less likely it is one will emerge. (likelihood of a superior offer is now lower than it was)
2. OIO approval is not a certainty by any means considering the deal involves ceding control over a substantial amount of land and housing to overseas control.
3. The virus is the new wild card and the fine print is quite vague on what constitutes an "adverse event"
4. Major institutional shareholders who had previously agreed to sell at $7 have sold significant parts of their holdings meaning its now less likely that the deal will get 75% shareholder approval
5. The markets are under the pump and I think its less likely a competing higher would be made in the current investment climate.
6. A 12 cent premium represents only an annual return of just over 5.3%, assuming the takeover proceeds are paid out on 31 May 2020.
7. If for any reason this deal falls over I see a potential downside of as low as $5.00

I have also carefully reconsidered the potential rewards and the not inconsiderable risks and decided its time to move on.

**flyer** · 03-02-2020, 03:50 PM

Yeah, I been thinking of doing that. If there is not going to be any higher offer or a greater premium than $7, it seems pointless holding for that period for a 12c gain. Maybe sell and use the cash to buy more ATM in a couple of weeks.

**winner69** · 07-02-2020, 08:52 AM

UBS still buying ...hmmm

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...080/316309.pdf

**JohnnyTheHorse** · 07-02-2020, 10:31 AM

Draft Scheme Booklet and Independent Adviser's Report would have been provided to EQT last Friday, with them providing feedback by today. Of course the offer price would have been within valuers range...

**Beagle** · 07-02-2020, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse

Draft Scheme Booklet and Independent Adviser's Report would have been provided to EQT last Friday, with them providing feedback by today. Of course the offer price would have been within valuers range...

"Independent" report lol...and BTW, how can you value a company that hasn't yet reported its current half year earnings inclusive of the current significant upswing in the (all important for MET) Auckland property market ? Right there the independence and currency of the so called independent current valuation report must by any objective thinking, be brought into question. That EQT has several days to comment on the draft report before its finalised tells you all you need to know about whether its truly independent or not. Guess who's paying for the preparation of that report folks ? One hint, its not MET.

Anecdotally, from my observations around here houses are selling like hot cakes at the moment in Auckland. Anything that is of sound construction, fairly priced and has a nice aspect to it is selling very quickly. None of that will be reflected in the so called current report.