MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[macduffy]

That sounds good, Beagle! Let's hope, though, that EQT don't come out with a SSN that shows that UBS, Morgan etc were buying as EQT's nominee. Sometimes, those SSN's take a few days to surface.

[freddagg]

Back room deal before the vote that would probably go something like this...Hey guys, I know you had some major shareholders who were wimpish enough to give their shares away at $7 because they had held forever and a day and were distressed long time holders so anything would do...but guess what, they've sold out on market and we're the new kids on the block and $7 simply won't cut the mustard any more. You know you're getting a bargain even at $7.40 so cough up the goods and lets be done with this.

I assume you are thinking that this deal would not be offered to the rest of the shareholders.

[Beagle]

I assume you are thinking that this deal would not be offered to the rest of the shareholders.

Above post is pure speculation on my part...that said any amended deal if it happens, would have to be offered to all shareholders.

[freddagg]

Above post is pure speculation on my part...that said any amended deal if it happens, would have to be offered to all shareholders.

Thank you for your thoughts Mr Beagle. Its all a bit complicated for my simple farmer brain, will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Snow Leopard]

HY out.

Not epic.

$7 it is then.

[Beagle]

Very "convenient" that NTA is exactly $7. Does anyone else think that's a "remarkable coincidence" ?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...968/317506.pdf
Chances of a competing superior offer in the current market environment are virtually NIL. Overall, this is another set of financial statements, just like SUM yesterday that really underwhelms.

[Beagle]

Another story of underwhelming new sales of just 54 vs new units delivered of 81. New sales flat/declining for years and new sales margin % halved over the last 4-5 years. No wonder they are waving the white flag at NTA.

And that after "delivering" (which we now all know is code speak for building but not selling), a huge increase in new units last year that remain unsold.
I think the market is totally saturated with supply and will be for the foreseeable future. Good times gone in this sector for a few years ?

[macduffy]

More evidence that the retirement village sector has got a bit ahead of current demand. Incidentally, though, a reliable source tells me that the Ryman Malvina Major village in Khandallah is at 100% occupancy.

[Beagle]

Good point. When the market is oversupplied you really see the benefit of having the best brand, product, service and reputation in the sector, i.e. Ryman. Even though Ryman’s new sales have also been not that strong, based on desirability, I would expect them to outperform competitors. More than priced in to share price though.

Agreed. Their 20% cap on ORA fees is more attractive than others and they pioneered the continuum of care. That said it doesn't appear to have helped their sales much and their shares are priced on very stretched metrics. Fact is from what I have heard, that most people want to buy a retirement unit pretty close to where they used to own their home.

[peat]

No divi either, I guess we knew that, but still.
I reckon the bidder will pull out if they have any possibility of doing so. They probably dont, but will certainly get an opinion on the matter. It would be worth the break fee esp if markets continue to re-rate downwards.