MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[peat]

looks like no one believes the take over will eventuate now.
I've closed out now at after making 80c per share. Probably go a lot further though given how it was priced before the t/o bid

[winner69]

looks like no one believes the take over will eventuate now.
I've closed out now at after making 80c per share. Probably go a lot further though given how it was priced before the t/o bid

Well done

I think you right in that it looks like the acquisition is dead in the water

[Beagle]

looks like no one believes the take over will eventuate now.
I've closed out now at after making 80c per share. Probably go a lot further though given how it was priced before the t/o bid

Nice gain, congrats. I suspect this will test its previous low of $4.20 last year when the takeover is withdrawn.

[Bjauck]

Well done

I think you right in that it looks like the acquisition is dead in the water

First week of March JP Morgan Chase were accumulating an extra 1.5% of the shares. Presumably they were thinking the takeover would still go ahead.

However if a week is a long time in politics it may be even longer with the stock market! I wonder what next week will bring...

Disc: I sold my holding in the first week of March. So maybe they bought them.

[Scrunch]

Nice gain, congrats. I suspect this will test its previous low of $4.20 last year when the takeover is withdrawn.

You are being unusually cautious on your price decline estimates. If we go back 6 months to 13 Sep 2019 we had the prices below. Today's close and the movements since then are also given.
MET 4.46. Today's close 5.90 (+32%)
SUM 6.35. Today's close 5.67 (-10.7%)
RYM 13.14. Today's close 11.70 (-11.0%)
OCA 1.02. Today's close 0.80 (-21.6%)

If MET was to to decline by what SUM/RYM have declined by over the last six months then your are looking at $3.98. If they fall by what OCA has fallen by, you are looking at $3.50.

Disc - sold out late Jan/Early Feb

[Beagle]

You are being unusually cautious on your price decline estimates. If we go back 6 months to 13 Sep 2019 we had the prices below. Today's close and the movements since then are also given.
MET 4.46. Today's close 5.90 (+32%)
SUM 6.35. Today's close 5.67 (-10.7%)
RYM 13.14. Today's close 11.70 (-11.0%)
OCA 1.02. Today's close 0.80 (-21.6%)

If MET was to to decline by what SUM/RYM have declined by over the last six months then your are looking at $3.98. If they fall by what OCA has fallen by, you are looking at $3.50.

Disc - sold out late Jan/Early Feb

Yes, as mentioned I suspect it will test it previous support line of $4.20. In another thread I have added this to my Christmas shopping list at $3.50. I wound need a discount of 50% to NTA to get interested because I think senior management are ostensibly, incompetent. At $3.50 hopefully somewhere down the track someone else will try and take them over again.

[trader_jackson]

You are being unusually cautious on your price decline estimates. If we go back 6 months to 13 Sep 2019 we had the prices below. Today's close and the movements since then are also given.
MET 4.46. Today's close 5.90 (+32%)
SUM 6.35. Today's close 5.67 (-10.7%)
RYM 13.14. Today's close 11.70 (-11.0%)
OCA 1.02. Today's close 0.80 (-21.6%)

If MET was to to decline by what SUM/RYM have declined by over the last six months then your are looking at $3.98. If they fall by what OCA has fallen by, you are looking at $3.50.

Disc - sold out late Jan/Early Feb

And ARV $1.43 to $1.31 (-8.4%)

Given what has gone on in the rest of the sector, as well as MET traditionally being 'cheap' compared to the other 4 listed, anything above $4 (should the takeover indeed fall through) would be surprising to me.

Sorry just thought I had to post given it looked like ARV was somehow missed out.

[Beagle]

I have ARV on my Christmas shopping list at $1. Just letting you know they're on my radar. The MET deal is almost certainly dead with serious flow on effects for the others. Also almost certain is that the virus will get into some retirement villages around the country and the effects will be devastating if it spreads within retirement communities. They will end up with lots of vacant units and the oversupply situation will become chronic as the attractiveness and relative safety of people staying in their own homes will be front and central in old folks minds for many years to come.

The market is already significantly over supplied in my view and this situation could be about to get much worse. SUM is probably the worst positioned to withstand a possible severe "storm" with its already strongly growing unsold stock level's and vast land bank with consequent very high debt level's. I am going to be extremely cautious with any possible reentry into SUM and would need to see a confirmed new uptrend based on improved sales results. That's not going to happen any time soon, in my view so although the share price has been savaged, its not enough...not anywhere near enough to get me SUMwhat interested.

I think the whole sector, (with the possible exception of RYM) could potentially end up trading at quite a significant discount to NTA.

[Bjauck]

I have ARV on my Christmas shopping list at $1. Just letting you know they're on my radar. The MET deal is almost certainly dead with serious flow on effects for the others. Also almost certain is that the virus will get into some retirement villages around the country and the effects will be devastating if it spreads within retirement communities....

Perhaps retirement villages are also best situated to be able to control entry and thus to try to allay infection. If there is compulsory community self isolation as in Italy or China, then Perhaps there could be better co-ordination of services than would be available for elderly spread out in the community and perhaps separated from family overseas in other parts of the country.

With respect to the rest homes in retirement villages, hopefully the elderly there will be better monitored than if they had remained in their home homes. Medical treatment is on hand and perhaps isolation more rapidly enforced. I am not convinced that risk of infection would be greater within a rest home with good hygiene practices, and even less convinced that elderly in retirement villages units would be more at risk than if they lived elsewhere.

[BlackPeter]

Perhaps retirement villages are also best situated to be able to control entry and thus to try to allay infection. If there is compulsory community self isolation as in Italy or China, then Perhaps there could be better co-ordination of services than would be available for elderly spread out in the community and perhaps separated from family overseas in other parts of the country.

With respect to the rest homes in retirement villages, hopefully the elderly there will be better monitored than if they had remained in their home homes. Medical treatment is on hand and perhaps isolation more rapidly enforced. I am not convinced that risk of infection would be greater within a rest home with good hygiene practices, and even less convinced that elderly in retirement villages units would be more at risk than if they lived elsewhere.

This makes a lot of sense, but don't destroy bulls / beagles nice ramp down story. Remember winner saying - its not about the numbers, but about the story ... and currently we are just in ramp down mode :