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  1. #1611
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    Nothing is cheap if a depression eventuate..... however depression or recession are not measured within weeks....it takes months and the market needs to see businesses start to fail.....

    Recent money injected from all the world will hold businesses first least 6 months...after that we will see....

    Let see who has a crystal ball.....shall we?

  2. #1612
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    all this gloomy and pssimistic talk of deep recessions and even depressions is a worry

    If adepression eventuates I wouldn’t think MET is ‘cheap’ at the moment
    Depression?

    Not with the tens of trillions of dollars being pumped into the global system imo.

    And universal income entitlement is ready to be unleashed if it is needed.

    Watch out what will happen to money in the bank instead. We have two generation of investors and general population who have no idea what out of control inflation is about - let's hope they do not have to find out!

  3. #1613
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12322288 Who knows what the future is...we're all really throwing darts !
    "We're all just throwing darts," says Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr when commenting on economists' forecast range of between negative 6 per cent to negative 9 per cent. (They are talking about the prognosis for the year ahead with real estate).

    Crunching the numbers:-
    If one assumes that their portfolio value of $3.6 billion was steaming ahead at close to full throttle for the first 2 1/2 months of 2020 and has perhaps risen 2.5% in that time followed by a 7.5% decline in the next 12 months (i.e. a net decline of 5% from 31 Dec 2019 values to projected value in April 2021) that would see a decline of $3.6 billion x 5% = $180m = ~ 84 cents a share for adjusted projected NTA as at April 2021 of $6.16

    Economists are then forecasting a strong rebound in property prices for 2021 and 2022. MET good value at $3.77 relative to the rest of the sector and the market ?
    Is the Pope a Catholic ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-04-2020 at 12:38 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #1614
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    Hope u put 99% of your cash in MET ...master Beagle!

  5. #1615
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    LOL Nothing like that but I am certainly taking a "dogged" approach
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #1616
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    LOL Nothing like that but I am certainly taking a "dogged" approach
    That which have been is now;

    And that which is to be hath already been;

    And God requireth which is past.

    Ecclesiastes 3.15

  7. #1617
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    Anything will do! That will create a good sentiment.....amen

  8. #1618
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That which have been is now;

    And that which is to be hath already been;

    And God requireth which is past.

    Ecclesiastes 3.15
    A more modern translation - Whatever is, has been long ago, and whatever is going to be has been before. God brings to pass again what was in the distant past and disappeared.

    I suppose you are referring to the chances of another great depression ? Who knows what the future holds, I certainly don't but its hard or near impossible to find better value in the market than this.
    I guess the risk averse will take an appropriately sized position and / or look to hedge their position somehow ?

    I think the market per se has got ahead of itself with the recent bounce but there is very deep value here for any scenario other than a protracted great depression.

    For me I think a long position in MET and an offsetting short position in RYM makes a whole lot of common sense. One trades at close to half NTA and the other at 2.5 times NTA. RYM are good but they're not magicians.
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-04-2020 at 01:05 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #1619
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    Dang Master Beagle....I don't know that u study a Bible? We should hang out to do a Bible study ....

  10. #1620
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Dang Master Beagle....I don't know that u study a Bible? We should hang out to do a Bible study ....
    Now that's a good idea. Here's a good place to start searching for some truth
    https://www.openbible.info/topics/wealth Plenty of food for thought in there !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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