MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

N.Z. Govt's books are in extremely good shape. We started this thing with debt to GDP of only 20%. Thank you Bill English for your prudent approach.

[Oliver Mander]

N.Z. Govt's books are in extremely good shape. We started this thing with debt to GDP of only 20%. Thank you Bill English for your prudent approach.

hear hear.
I think its become an ingrained principles of any government though, thank heavens. Low debt lets us cushion our regular natural disasters (earthquakes) and definitely will help us now.

[Beagle]

Blobbles made mention somewhere NZ property market could go the way that Ireland went a few years ago ....with prices collapsing 50% to 60%

Suppose if that did happen here the MET share price being so low now we’d still be OK

I haven't seen the post but I don't share that view. If we can really flatten this thing out and with all the precautions villages are taking, many might see (including hundreds of thousands of Kiwi's still overseas), little old N.Z., an island nation at the bottom of the world as a safe place to come back too and in particular with MET's vast predominance of independent living units, a safe place to retire too.

[King1212]

Master Beagle..... labour tends to spend it and national will come n fix the balance sheet

[Bjauck]

......
Its all over. Fair value ? Take $4.20 in 2019, less the average decline in this sector since MET was $4.20...I have yet to crunch the numbers but it wouldn't surprise me if it was under $3. The fact that they have the lowest gearing in this sector might save them from the indignity of a 2 handle on the share price.
...

That was posted on 26th March. What has changed since then? If anything I would tend to think that MET's fair value would be lower than about three weeks ago. Some pretty gloomy real estate forecasts have come out.

[Beagle]

That was posted on 26th March. What has changed since then? If anything I would tend to think that MET's fair value would be lower than about three weeks ago. Some pretty gloomy real estate forecasts have come out.

I was right and they were saved from the indignity of a 2 handle, (just). They say a week is a long time in politics and it is then 19 days has been an eternity in this market. Go back and have a look where we were on the virus bell curve back then. Its clear there is genuine hope now, (at least in N.Z.), we can get on top of this virus.

Movements from late March at the depth's of this crisis, low point to now
SUM $3.36 to $5.95 up 77%
ARV $0.88 to $1.36 up 55%
OCA $0.38 to $0.85 up 124%
RYM $6.61 to $11.18 up 69%
MET $3.16 to $3.90 up just 25%

I'll let you figure out what the market is trying to tell you and why MET is the odd one out, (clue, its a lot to do with the takeover offer being pulled and arbitrage players selling down)

Opportunity knocks for MET buyers at under $4 ?...you folks be the judge

[bottomfeeder]

General real estate prices will suffer, mainly because of the unemployment rate, except for retirement villages. The older portion of our population have no alternatives to really consider. As they are generally risk averse, they haven't lost their life savings. As inflationary pressures increase I see MET taking off, and just waiting for a takeover.

[macduffy]

General real estate prices will suffer, mainly because of the unemployment rate, except for retirement villages. The older portion of our population have no alternatives to really consider. As they are generally risk averse, they haven't lost their life savings. As inflationary pressures increase I see MET taking off, and just waiting for a takeover.

I hope so! Remember though, that the sector price their units/apartments as a percentage of real estate prices in the locality. Lower housing prices will translate into lower prices for the retirement sector, IMO.

[King1212]

Let us shave off 30% off $7 NTA because of property down turn.....that still value MET at $4.90

[bottomfeeder]

Went up to $3.88, will accumulate more if the price goes down below $3.60. I was looking for a safe haven share to invest some term deposits coming up. Interest rates are just way too low, to even bother reinvesting.