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  1. #1761
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    Quote Originally Posted by crighton100 View Post
    I reside in one of their villages.No one has been tested at our village [no one leaves the village except for doctor appointments & staff do all the shopping]We have a team of nurses 24 hours a day,they phone every resident twice a week to see if they are fine,besides looking after any resident with any ailment.They do not use any masks etc & so far no problems.One of MET villages had a case [the person had been overseas] & all residents & staff were tested at that village & were negative according to our CEO Mr Sowry [who sends us regular updates on everything to do with Covid19 & any govt announcements].Just as a matter of interest all residents were given the current FLU vaccine just over 2 weeks ago,so they should now be active in us.Hope that helps you,good luck with investments.
    Thanks for the update. Underlines for me the fact that retirement villages are the best place for oldies to be at the moment. Most of my elderly relatives still reside independently in their own homes. I feel they would be in a more secure and safer environment in a retirement village.

    Disc: own shares in four retirement companies.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 18-04-2020 at 01:55 PM.

  2. #1762
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I've been counting beans for much longer than I'd like to admitt BUT one thing I have learned is that the best guide to the future is the most recent past, in this case the fact that there were 3 parties interested in taking this over, and FY19 performance of $90.5m underlying profit or 42.4 cps (historic underlying PE is just 9.5). The second best guide is the 3 or 4 years before that, which is why I usually look at a five year history. The third best guide, (note the order here which really does make me a hardened cynic about all management statements), is what the company tells you about its current trading and outlook. The forth best guide is what detailed analysis of the first three guides tells someone doing good analysis about the company. Looking back further than 5 years often with different management, a different balance sheet and / or completely different market dynamics is a very poor fifth best guide to the future in my opinion, so poor I often don't bother.

    In addition to the 3 potential suitors there's the companies own buy-back program to consider as well which could quite conceivably get a major increase in its scope if the share price lingers around this level.

    When I look at the other 4 listed operators in this sector, none presents as fair value to me considering the new normal we're likely to be in.
    I won't pay over the odds for any company in this new normal, I care nothing for reputations and stick to the hard numbers, underlying average eps growth of 15% per annum for the last five years and on a PE of just 9.5 and one is buying at 42% discount to NTA does it for me.

    Oh, by the way, I haven't noticed multiple other companies trying to take over any of the other listed retirement companies...maybe this dog's way of valuing companies does have a factual basis after all...
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-04-2020 at 02:12 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #1763
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    Agree with you Beagle

    There aren't an excessively huge number of shares issued either @ 213 Mil

    the recent Takeover Arbitrage Holders departing probably opens things up for the other interested parties
    Last edited by nztx; 18-04-2020 at 02:27 PM. Reason: add more

  4. #1764
    Senior Member pierre's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Oh, by the way, I haven't noticed multiple other companies trying to take over any of the other listed retirement companies...maybe this dog's way of valuing companies does have a factual basis after all...
    Appreciate your analysis Beagle.
    Can I ask, if you had $100k invested in OCA that's currently underwater, and you wanted to remain invested in the sector, how much of it would you move into MET? Asking for a friend.

    Discl. Also own RYM and SUM.
    Last edited by pierre; 18-04-2020 at 02:31 PM. Reason: Add discl.

  5. #1765
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    The last time there was a slump in the property market prices weren't greatly effected however volumes dipped quite a lot. MET mention in the late 2000's annual reports they experienced sales slumps due to retirees needing to sell their homes before making the move into a village and when they struggled they gave up and opted to wait for recovery and delay the move instead of meeting the market. This saw a drop off in sales and I suspect the same thing will likely occur this time too. This is obviously going to effect all companies in this sector however OCA being more care focused means their sales are more needs based + revenues are also more care focused which in my view makes them a good hold going into the upcoming property slump.

    I loaded up to the gills in OCA shares during the recent crash with an average buy price of $0.52 and have since sold a lot in the mid $0.80s to get into MET because even though I believe they will struggle to sell as many units going forward, their gearing is low, the NTA discount is high and takeover opportunity remains. The ratio I've chosen is around 50:50 and plan to hold the shares for many years.

  6. #1766
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    Wow...100k in OCA.....what a brave investment..it should be divided by 10 companies....

  7. #1767
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Wow...100k in OCA.....what a brave investment..it should be divided by 10 companies....
    King you can’t make that statement , maybe he has a portfolio worth $10 mio so it’s small change.Without all the info you are not commenting in an informed manner .

  8. #1768
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    Even $10m....I won't put all in the share market.....gosh... people think share market is a good place to play around.

  9. #1769
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    MET had a NTA of $6.93 as at June 2007. Its NTA is still around this level so the compounded growth from peak to peak is about zero percent (but there has also been a some dividends creating a positive return). So from a long-term perspective its been well deserving of its dog reputation.
    You need to compare like for like - MET today has a different capital structure than the MET which went into the GFC.

    There were placements of shares & SPP which raised:

    - $43.8m at $2.10 in 2011 - 20.9m shares

    - $80m at $3.10 in 2013 - 25.8m shares

    Then there was the merger with PLC & VSL in 2012 - $202m issued at $5.09 - 39.7m shares

    Adjusting the NTA for the above = $5.62 per share.

    Leave the ROI or ROE calculations to one of you mathematical genuises here - I barely passed my Maths in Uni.




    -
    Last edited by Balance; 18-04-2020 at 06:46 PM.

  10. #1770
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre View Post
    Appreciate your analysis Beagle.
    Can I ask, if you had $100k invested in OCA that's currently underwater, and you wanted to remain invested in the sector, how much of it would you move into MET? Asking for a friend.

    Discl. Also own RYM and SUM.
    Quote Originally Posted by stoploss View Post
    Without all the info you are not commenting in an informed manner .
    I don't want to give specific advice either for a number of reasons (including lack of a total picture), but its clear from my comments on here I think MET is very very cheap, OCA around about fair value at present, ARV is a good company but doesn't deserve a premium to NTA, SUM really has lost its way and RYM is heinously overpriced and trading on a reputation, (one that doesn't warrant the current price by any stretch of the imagination).

    I guess a lot depends on whether an investor wants to chase out-performance in the sector like I am or whether they're happy with a market performance. In the latter case, deciding how much of your portfolio you want in this sector and then splitting it 5 ways in equal measure makes good common sense.

    If one is chasing outperformance in the sector and is completely comfortable with the extra risk of a non diversified portfolio then I think having all one's retirement sector investment in MET is where the takeover action could be and very deep value, most definitely is. I am also happy long term as MET's growth rate outlook is not materially different to any other company in this sector, other than SUM who look like they are going to really struggle for at least the next 2 years.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-04-2020 at 07:51 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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