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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Size?

    Or a change to their business model?
    There is some efficiency with size but the answer to your question is the later. Their bigger size will give them more scope to do have a rethink about their business model.
    Free delivery worldwide with Book Depository http://www.bookdepository.co.uk

  2. #22
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Red face Much Modified Merger Moved after More Meddling

    So it was approved after yet another round of twiddling. [ Announcement ]


    best wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  3. #23
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    SparkyTheClown Out of Interest what was the offer TIA
    Possum The Cat

  4. #24
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    SparkyTheClown Thanks
    Possum The Cat

  5. #25
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    Up to $2.35 now

  6. #26
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    I took a few in the placement - scaled back a bit in fact. Seems to have been well received by the market which has them now at $2.35.

    Must admit that my logic for investing in them is a bit flawed in that I regard RYM as the superior company/investment but have been too mean to add to my current holding recently - waiting for the dips! With reasonable management all companies in this sector should prosper.

  7. #27
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    I like the sector, Sparky, so at this stage it's into my longterm portfolio. May look to "swap" it for some more RYM at some time in the future depending on the two companies' relative performances.

    Realistically, I'd expect the SP to come back a bit as the hot money takes its cut although it seems to be holding up well today on solid volume.

  8. #28
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    The share price has been on a fairly steady march upwards over the last month, rising from $2.35 to $2.75. That is despite a number of new shareholders being well 'in the money', having picked up shares from RVNZ for $2.20 just one month ago.

    I suspect profit taking will kick in shortly, which will halt the march upward. Once some of that selling has been absorbed you would hope that the price settles closer to the (post merger) NTA of $3.20, as both SUM and RYM trade well above their NTA. Of course, MET directors will need to provide some confidence to the market that they are doing a good job and that the merger has been successful.

  9. #29
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    Well less than one month on from my last post and the price has continued marching upwards to levels last seen in 2008. Of course the company's price isn't alone in this regard, especially when you compare it with the RYM and SUM charts.

    The positive for MET is that they are still trading below their post-merger NTA of $3.24. This compares with RYM and SUM, who both trade signficantly higher than their NTAs. The negative is that there is limited visibility on how the merger is faring - we'll probably get an update at the AGM in October.

  10. #30
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    ...seldom do I see ... no sellers....

    Giday sparky....can you release that doc from GSachs....and when you say MET is cheaper than RYM........surely the SP is no reflection on the value of a company ....like RYM could have another 5/1 in the near future (again)...if you get my drift....the company retains the same value....cheers
    Last edited by troyvdh; 24-10-2012 at 07:10 PM.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Goldman Sachs / JB Were have just released a research document saying Ryman is fully priced and Metlife is cheap. They base their report mostly on house price inflation comparisons. Their report is quite weak on healthcare analysis though, nowhere is the concept of dementia care mentioned, a real strength of Ryman over other RV operators.

    I agree MET is cheaper than RYM, but does that make it a better company to invest in long term?
    Sauce has always been right on the money with his Ryman valuations on the Ryman thread, and has shared his thoughts on both SUM and MET.
    Last edited by percy; 24-10-2012 at 06:27 PM.

  12. #32
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    Thanks for the trouble you have gone to Sparky.
    I can't comment on MET,however I think their view of Ryman is spot on.

  13. #33
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    Hi Sparky,

    Cheers for the article above - very useful.

    I never thought twice about MET as have preferred to hold RYM, but since the latest merger, sale and change in control I believe there is reduced risk and good potential for a turn around. Hence I bought a small holding.

    Obviously a good industry to be in and MET is cheap relative to NTA with management hopefully using the assets now to generate some profit. If there is a Div it would really egt thing moving in terms of share price.

    I still havn't invested in SUM as I increased my holding in RYM, and in my view it SUM similar but not as good as RYM.

    However I may buy some SUM if RYM keeps moving upwards. Will also be interesting to see how RYM goes in Aussie.

    Matt.T

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    The one thing that the Goldman Sachs report doesn't mention is the word "dementia".

    I note this because I know that Ryman consider it a huge advantage that they are building in their villages purpose built dementia care units with scale.

    The other operators are not building specialist dementia care, and only a couple are offering aged care. The Ryman management I've spoken with are convinced this is a major benefit to being in a Ryman unit - you never have to leave if your care needs change.

    I've had the chance to recently walk around two Ryman villages, the Evelyn Page village in Orewa, and the Diana Isaac Village in Shirley CHCH, andhave to say I was utterly blown away at the scale of the operations, including the attention to detail in the dementia care wings.

    I've also toured Metlife Villages (the Remuera St Vincents) and the Summerset Villages in Manukau and Warkworth, and have to say Ryman are superior complexes (though the others are not to be sneezed at as markedly inferior, just not the same level of complete facilities as the Ryman ones.)
    Word.
    Sauce

  15. #35
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  16. #36
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    Folks listen up. In the AFR 1/2/13 "The $553 million Retirement Village Group RVG is in breach of its loan covenants, triggering a dramatic recent jump in its borrowing costs...... RVG holds a 43% slice of Metlife Care NZ and its investors hope the sale of that stake may cover the outstanding debt......Financial sources argue RVG may have to stomach a deep discount on the Metlife share trade"

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    Yes . Icant cut and paste atm so selective v slow 2 fingered typing. Looking good for FKP(i hold from $1.40) and int re Metlife. Maybe a cheap entry coming up.

  18. #38
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    Cool Goldilocks and the 3 Bears

    So in addition to owning Ryman and Summerset I have now added Metlifecare to my portfolio.

    Currently still trading just under NTA and trading well under NTA+Resident Loans, if they can get their act together and up the rate at which they build, and more importantly, sell new units then I dare say the market in general will decide to push the price up.

    The accounts say to me that they could borrow a bit of money (that was recently paid back) to develop their build capability and kick start some decent growth.

    So then they would not be 'too cold' anymore.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    PS: 'too hot' and 'just right' ? try working them out.
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 04-04-2013 at 04:31 PM. Reason: sometimes there should their
    om mani peme hum

  19. #39
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    Hedging your bets? One of them is bound to let you buy a unit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Paper Tiger View Post
    So in addition to owning Ryman and Summerset I have now added Metlifecare to my portfolio.

    Currently still trading just under NTA and trading well under NTA+Resident Loans, if they can get their act together and up the rate at which they build, and more importantly, sell new units then I dare say the market in general will decide to push the price up.

    The accounts say to me that they could borrow a bit of money (that was recently paid back) to develop their build capability and kick start some decent growth.

    So then they would not be 'too cold' anymore.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    PS: 'too hot' and 'just right' ? try working them out.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Could the growth rate in earnings look more like 20% over five years, eg more heroic than Ryman?.
    I guess that's the question. In theory, RYM model is quite simple so why shouldn't it's growth rate increase. There is plenty of room in the market for all three to have high growth rates.

    So are MET's management up to it?

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