MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

$1 a share less is $213m less so they are still saying that the assets of MET have gone down by more than $200m. What limited real estate data there is since we emerged from lockdown does not support this contention relative to real estate prices as at 31 December 2019. (Recall medium prices in N.Z. went up 4.9% in the first quarter in N.Z.)

The Chairman's statement that prices have fallen about 15% is probably the most misguided and wimpiest thing I have ever heard a Chairman say.
Has he simply not had time to read anything at all in the press about real estate prices or is this him simply caving in under pressure and waving the white flag or both ?
No wonder the arbitrage funds want him gone, he is completely tone deaf in trying to read the market. I'm extremely disappointed with that (assuming his comments were reported correctly and I hope they weren't).

Really, anything less than $6.35 and MET shareholders have been totally shafted here.

[Balance]

Superfund is not going to have the final say in this. Needs 75% support and there's a bunch of arbitrage funds holding plenty that have a much higher average cost than $6.
How much pain if any they are prepared to accept and how much higher EQT are prepared to go will determine the outcome of this.
It took quite a long time for EQT to come up from $6.50 to $7 originally so I expect negotiations to take a while...and then it has to be framed up into an amended scheme implementation agreement.

I agree Balance. Excellent chance that $6 will be raised to around the mid point of the most current independent valuation. My guess remains $6.35 or very close to that.

Will send you a bottle of French Champagne (minimum $100, Beagle, if your guess is correct but you send me two bottles of said Champagne if I am correct that the final bid is > $6.35.

How does that sound? 😁

[Beagle]

Will send you a bottle of French Champagne (minimum $100, Beagle, if your guess is correct but you send me two bottles of said Champagne if I am correct that the final bid is > $6.35.

How does that sound? ��

LOL - Chances of $6.50 are too good as is your track record with this one

[Balance]

LOL - Chances of $6.50 are too good as is your track record with this one

Haha - you caught me out, Beagle.

A few bottles of champagne are already on their way to me courtesy of several very happy holders - I thought I may be able to extract another couple from a stockmarket war veteran like you. 😁

[Balance]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/metl...0200706-p559he

AFR Street Talk : "The Metlifecare investors out for chairman Kim Ellis' head would have welcomed the company's willingness to engage on a revise takeover offer from EQT Infrastructure on Monday, but that doesn't mean they're easing the pressure just yet."

See the hidden hands of APVG at play?

[winner69]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/metl...0200706-p559he

AFR Street Talk : "The Metlifecare investors out for chairman Kim Ellis' head would have welcomed the company's willingness to engage on a revise takeover offer from EQT Infrastructure on Monday, but that doesn't mean they're easing the pressure just yet."

See the hidden hands of APVG at play?

Be in NBR soon eh

Pressure on the stubborn one who doesn’t listen

[Balance]

Be in NBR soon eh

Pressure on the stubborn one who doesn’t listen

He wants $7, given that it could be worth $8 under various scenarios.

Not necessarily a bad thing for the rest of us to have him fight the good fight.

Remember there were those who thought that taking APVG to court was a dumb move by him?

[RGR367]

Gut feel is that it will be more than 6 bucks but just cannot bet on an exact amount.
Accumulated at lock down so I will be of course more than happy to have it from $6 upwards. Happy too to have this go on court but we all know this will not happen at all.
GL to us all!

[bottomfeeder]

Maybe the takeover bid is genuine. Maybe they are running scared, maybe they may renegotiate up to $6.35/$6.50. But we should also spare a thought for another scenario. There is a legal term called mitigation of damages. APVG, has now put a line in the sand whereby Metlifecare has a choice to make. If they dont accept, the damages claim may be severely reduced, which could make their legal claim inefficient to pursue. I have a feeling one scenario is either accept the $6.00 or stop all legal proceedings and walk away. Therefore it may be that there is not much negotiating room after all. Sorry to put a damper on the exuberance, but you have to look at all scenarios.

[Beagle]

Another school of thought is that in APVG's notice of termination, (back when the prospect of Covid becoming rampant in N.Z. was very real) they stated they believed the net assets of MET had gone down by a material amount, as much as $200m or potentially more.
There's 213m shares on issue so perhaps the revised non binding indicative offer is simply an opportunistic attempt to get good assets on a cheap on the basis that their original assessment was correct.
What real estate evidence there has been to date suggests there hasn't been much change since pre-covid prices which were in fact up 4.9% on 31/12/19 prices.
Now that Covid is contained at the border and hopefully stays that way, I would say if I were EQT, absolutely I would try and buy the company at an opportunistic price.
Whether arbitrage investors who paid an average of nearly $6.90 let them get away with it is another matter.

I think the chances of this fiasco going full circle back to the very first offer price of $6.50 (or very close) are very good.