MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[limmy]

I believe Mr. Beagle's school of thought makes most sense.

[Balance]

Another school of thought is that in APVG's notice of termination, (back when the prospect of Covid becoming rampant in N.Z. was very real) they stated they believed the net assets of MET had gone down by a material amount, as much as $200m or potentially more.
There's 213m shares on issue so perhaps the revised non binding indicative offer is simply an opportunistic attempt to get good assets on a cheap on the basis that their original assessment was correct.
What real estate evidence there has been to date suggests there hasn't been much change since pre-covid prices which were in fact up 4.9% on 31/12/19 prices.
Now that Covid is contained at the border and hopefully stays that way, I would say if I were EQT, absolutely I would try and buy the company at an opportunistic price.
Whether arbitrage investors who paid an average of nearly $6.90 let them get away with it is another matter.

I think the chances of this fiasco going full circle back to the very first offer price of $6.50 (or very close) are very good.

Well, the big change of course is that squillions of stock have gone to the arb/hedge funds so the balance of voting power has changed - hence NZ Super Fund with its 19.9% is now 'kingmaker'.

$6.50 will seal the deal for them, I suspect.

[bottomfeeder]

Lets hope we get a revised offer up, to take into account lost dividends. Either way Im holding on to the bitter end no matter which way it goes. Got no other place to put the money, Got so many OCA, I am starting to get a bit nervous. I bought some more a few days ago, now I have no cash left until the middle of August.

[Beagle]

Bloated with profits and no idea where to spend it ? Get in quick before Cindy gets it https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/use...43b44c9808-002

[King1212]

good on you Master Beagle!!!

[bottomfeeder]

Bloated with profits and no idea where to spend it ? Get in quick before Cindy gets it https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/use...43b44c9808-002

Already have one good enough for me, Thanks Tegel Takeover. Same colour as well.

[Beagle]

Very nice. Forthcoming 550 x drive has piqued my interest https://www.bmw.co.nz/en/all-models/...ighlights.html
Much keener on that than a 7.
Anyway back to MET. The more I think about it I can't see the arbitrage boys going for $6. The loss for them and egg on face is too much.
EQT will have to materially up the ante or we're off to court for a multi year legal battle.
I'd better not pay BMW my deposit just yet...

[bottomfeeder]

Thought I would have to take a photo with todays newspaper.

Attachment 11753

[Balance]

So we now know that Maso Capital of HK is the ‘event driven’ investment fund behind the ‘spill’ to remove Ellis.

Not exactly a big hitter (US$300m fund) so the $66m odd it has invested in MetLife is big bikies. Must be hurting its performance so understandable why it is agitating for a deal to be done with APVG.

Maso is however also one of the 5 funds who supported MetLife taking court action against APVG in the first place.

So what are we to make from the situation?

Fairly clear now that APVG had approached the offshore funds and/or vice versa to settle the pending litigation out of court via a negotiated deal.

Sounds like Ellis & board initially refused, being very confident of Metlife’s position. Hence, the threat to remove him.

But here’s the rub - unless NZ Fund & ACC joined the spill, Maso & the other offshore funds do not have the numbers to roll Ellis.

So looks to me like a deal is done and given NZ Fund & ACC involvement, final price will definitely be higher than initial offer of $6.00.

[traineeinvestor]

So we now know that Maso Capital of HK is the ‘event driven’ investment fund behind the ‘spill’ to remove Ellis.

Not exactly a big hitter (US$300m fund) so the $66m odd it has invested in MetLife is big bikies. Must be hurting its performance so understandable why it is agitating for a deal to be done with APVG.

Maso is however also one of the 5 funds who supported MetLife taking court action against APVG in the first place.

So what are we to make from the situation?

Fairly clear now that APVG had approached the offshore funds and/or vice versa to settle the pending litigation out of court via a negotiated deal.

Sounds like Ellis & board initially refused, being very confident of Metlife’s position. Hence, the threat to remove him.

But here’s the rub - unless NZ Fund & ACC joined the spill, Maso & the other offshore funds do not have the numbers to roll Ellis.

So looks to me like a deal is done and given NZ Fund & ACC involvement, final price will definitely be higher than initial offer of $6.00.

In an exercise in schadenfreude, if I read the disclosure notice correctly, Maso paid an average of $6.88 per share and invested just under NZ$80 million (USD52 million) net between December last year and February this year. If the deal is done at $6.00 they lose NZD10.2 million (USD6.6 million).

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...227/317927.pdf