MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[NOCASH]

Hi guys, MET will definitely be de-listed at $6.00, what is the time frame for this to be wrapped up? i can see a quick profit here buying in at $5.90 and waiting to cash in at $6.00 brokerage free? Just the time frame that will put people off.. if they will not receive there cheque by xmas, its better to keep the money in the bank?

[Beagle]

I think MET can do about $90m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 42.19 cents. At $6 EQT are paying 14.2 times FY21 earnings.
I think OCA can do about $60m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 9.75 cents. Applying the same 14.2 times FY21 forecast PE suggests a fair price for OCA of $1.38.

[winner69]

I think MET can do about $90m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 42.19 cents. At $6 EQT are paying 14.2 times FY21 earnings.
I think OCA can do about $60m underlying profit in FY21 which equates to eps of 9.75 cents. Applying the same 14.2 times FY21 forecast PE suggests a fair price for OCA of $1.38.

So OCA could pay 5.8 cents divie (top policy range) ...at your $1.38 that’s still 4% plus yield (TRINA would love)

So 38% upside from today to fair value plus a decent divie

Why hold MET until the end ...May as well buy OCA

[NOCASH]

So OCA could pay 5.8 cents divie (top policy range) ...at your $1.38 that’s still 4% plus yield (TRINA would love)

So 38% upside from today to fair value plus a decent divie

Why hold MET until the end ...May as well buy OCA

Holding MET is sure $6.00, holding OCA there is more risk associated.

[Beagle]

How sure is the $6 ? What happens to the share price if shareholders vote the takeover down ?

Looks pretty good eh Winner but we need to see what last year's financials look like next week before getting too excited.

[winner69]

How sure is the $6 ? What happens to the share price if shareholders vote the takeover down ?

Looks pretty good eh Winner but we need to see what last year's financials look like next week before getting too excited.

No proactive provisioning and assumption changes to ensure in upper end of that underlying profit guidance they gave a while ago

Wouldn’t want the NTA to go much below 7 bucks would we ...even though real profit might be bad

[Beagle]

I couldn't care less about MET now mate. I was talking about OCA's reporting next week.
Director Carolyn Steele so called guardian of the superfund has done anything but taken a steely approach. Sold all shareholders down the river...
Other directors gave away shareholders rights to sue for $7 for this new totally "pathetic" offer.
What a totally disgraceful and pathetic. A fiasco from beginning to sad end. A very lucrative fiasco for many of us but a fiasco nonetheless.

[winner69]

I couldn't care less about MET now mate. I was talking about OCA's reporting next week.
Director Carolyn Steele so called guardian of the superfund has done anything but taken a steely approach. Sold all shareholders down the river...
Other directors gave away shareholders rights to sue for $7 for this new totally "pathetic" offer.
What a totally disgraceful and pathetic. A fiasco from beginning to sad end. A very lucrative fiasco for many of us but a fiasco nonetheless.

in your eyes I assume the Chair of Kingfish and those other funds is now persona non gratia as well

Must have thought it deserved to be vlued much less than sum other companies Kingfish hold heaps off

[Beagle]

Yes a pathetic effort all round by all involved. Earlier in the week your mate Kim said real estate prices had fallen 15% or thereabouts and Carolyn Steele committed to the $6 figure on behalf of the super fund. (Actualy real estate medium prices are well up on 31 December 2019 figures as we know now from official REINZ stat's).
Not making excuses for the rest of the board but they set the tone and its was obvious the super fund is an extremely keen seller as were overseas arbitrage funds.
Other directors should have told them to "harden-up" and demanded $6.50.
I won't rule out buying back the minimum shareholding just to attend the special meeting and tell them what a bunch of pathetic wimps they are, in exactly those words.
They cost me many thousands of extra dollars profit so it could be quite a cathartic experience.
What a complete embarrassment its going to be for the board if monthly official REINZ sales stat's show prices continue to go up between now and the time of the meeting. July and August 2020 stat's will be out before that meeting in late September. Hope they're really strong.

[Cyclical]

Yes a pathetic effort all round by all involved. Earlier in the week your mate Kim said real estate prices had fallen 15% or thereabouts and Carolyn Steele committed to the $6 figure on behalf of the super fund. (Actualy real estate medium prices are well up on 31 December 2019 figures as we know now from official REINZ stat's).
Not making excuses for the rest of the board but they set the tone and its was obvious the super fund is an extremely keen seller as were overseas arbitrage funds.
Other directors should have told them to "harden-up" and demanded $6.50.
I won't rule out buying back the minimum shareholding just to attend the special meeting and tell them what a bunch of pathetic wimps they are, in exactly those words.
They cost me many thousands of extra dollars profit so it could be quite a cathartic experience.
What a complete embarrassment its going to be for the board if monthly official REINZ sales stat's show prices continue to go up between now and the time of the meeting. July and August 2020 stat's will be out before that meeting in late September. Hope they're really strong.

I probably don't feel quite as strongly about it as you, Beagle (unfortunately I sold out at ~$4.20 as didn't want to line lawyer's pockets for a lengthy period, but now have my tail between my legs of course), but I agree it has been pathetic looking at it from the sidelines. EQT will be over the moon at how they've managed to dupe NZ inc out of another listed company that surely has a bright future (even with rubbish leadership, you'd be hard pressed to fail over the long term with the aging population and impending asset price inflation this period is going to bring us). A sad turn of events indeed for the NZX.

A potential upside though, for those of us still with interests in the industry, is given EQT's cunning (or should that be dirty?) negotiating skills, maybe they can help keep future governments honest in terms of funding allocation for this sector...