MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[troyvdh]

Josh...I have to ask the question..surely ...serious investors in the SM....do not "move" there shares ...I have to admit I detest traders....reason being that so many NZ folk consider the SM as a casino...not a worthwhile alternative to Res property....anyways....it's my belief that NZ Inc would be far better of if "we" developed an investment horizon greater than a month or so......just saying..me thinks that folk who invest in most retirement listings will probably do better than a bank deposit..

[Joshuatree]

A fellow investor changed sector ,troy seeking the 'safety" of income stocks gentailers and NZR(morphing into one).We discussed how safe they are and wondered that despite the Govt owning more then 50% of most gentailers could com com come in with a heavy stick and say "you are making too much reduce your margins"; my thinking is yes they could his was no ;anyone have definitive answer be appreciated.

I reposted the q on MEL thread.

[Bjauck]

... rumour has it that Auckland house prices just stabilized. This might mean less pressure on the housing market and probably as well less pressure (or incentive) for elderlies to sell their houses and move into a retirement home.

Not sure, whether it works that way (and certainly not that fast - in reality there would need to be many months lag time for people to make these decisions), but this could be an explanation for the dip in market sentiment...

OTH..with signs that the Auckland housing market is starting to come off the boil, maybe it will incentivize those, considering selling up to move into a village, to get a move on and sell up in a vendor's market and move into a village where they may not have to carry the can if there is another global meltdown. It could be a question of Locking in the capital gain in their homes when times are still good, because when their hands are more forced by their changing circumstances, the market may have turned into a buyer's one.

[winner69]

New CEO Glen Sowry

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/226107.pdf

He will go a long way - first words 'Metlife Care are well positioned...."

Glen into the swing of things already

[BlackPeter]

Wow! half year results are out - and no reason for MET to hide themselves:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230542.pdf

• Net Profit after Tax of $125.7m, up 217% on 1H15
• Operating Cash Flows of $78m, up 137% on 1H15
• Underlying Profit of $33.5m, up 29% on 1H15
• Total Assets of $2.4b, up 17% on 1H15 - ah yes, and NTA ($4.85) above the current SP;
• 103 new sales settled, up 255% on 1H15
• 200 resales settled, down 1% on 1H15
• Land Bank of 2,184 units and beds
• Interim dividend of NZ 1.75 cents

Market seems to like it .... SP rocking up as we speak, and who wouldn't like to own a piece of this performance?

Maybe there is still life left in the retirement sector ...?

Discl: quite happy holder

[kura]

Im confused here, was comparing NTA for MET with RYM.
NTA for MET = $4.80 (about same as share price )
NTA for RYM = $2.34 with a share price of approx $8.00
Info is from ASB share trading website
What am I missing here, when both involved in same/similar industry ??

[limmy]

It's not just RYM. Most stocks have NTA way below the share price.

[kura]

Agree with you that NTA is irrelevant for most companies.

But for property companies NTA is highly relevant. ( I consider retirement village operators as nothing more than highly specialised property companies ) As such it seemed weird that one would trade for NTA & other would trade for approx 3 times NTA ?

Disc: Have only recently started looking at retirement sector

[horus1]

Doesnt this mean that MET are undervalued.

[BlackPeter]

MET looks in my view quite undervalued compared to SUM and certainly RYM; Its not just the NTA ... it is as well the PE which looks outrageously good (forward PE of 6.8) compared to other retirement village providers. Obviously - there is a reason for everything .. and MET used to have the lowest build rate / growth under the big 3 as well as the highest regional focus (or say least diversification). As well - some of the building stock used to be somewhat run down and in not always highly desirable locations (dependant on the site).

It feels however that the company changed course for the better - Infratil as corner stone share holder and on the board starts to make a difference. Build rate is increasing - and locations (at least the new ones, difficult to move the old) seem to become more desirable.

I think that they are undervalued - and hold a sizeable package.