From what i can see MET and SUM seem to drop around June (maybe tax selling) then have a rebound leading up to results in August. Seems to be a good time to buy both.
From what i can see MET and SUM seem to drop around June (maybe tax selling) then have a rebound leading up to results in August. Seems to be a good time to buy both.
Is there any particular reason why MET - and SUM -should be singled out for tax selling? I think it more likely belated realisation that the anticipated increase in ageing retirees in NZ is a much more important driver of retirement stock fortunes than the ups and downs of the property market.
Is there any particular reason why MET - and SUM -should be singled out for tax selling? I think it more likely belated realisation that the anticipated increase in ageing retirees in NZ is a much more important driver of retirement stock fortunes than the ups and downs of the property market.
Is there any particular reason why MET - and SUM -should be singled out for tax selling? I think it more likely belated realisation that the anticipated increase in ageing retirees in NZ is a much more important driver of retirement stock fortunes than the ups and downs of the property market.
I would have thought property cycle is more important even though retirees are increasing if they cannot sell there property or get the required funds from selling there property they wont be going into a retirement village.
I would have thought property cycle is more important even though retirees are increasing if they cannot sell there property or get the required funds from selling there property they wont be going into a retirement village.
But there's a lot more retirees looking for a place in a village than there are places in those villages. Hence the providers can command a premium. And that's not going to change. Under supply meets over demand.
But there's a lot more retirees looking for a place in a village than there are places in those villages. Hence the providers can command a premium. And that's not going to change. Under supply meets over demand.
correct but as property sales are declining if you cant sell at a price you might want you might not be able to pay for the village you want
Bull.
Not being funny but look at the average prices of houses down your street.
Then figure out whether you think those people who are about 70 years old living in your street would have a mortgage.
Then ring your local retirement village and find out the price of a two bedroom unit.
Get back to me if the unit is over half the price of the oldies current home.
correct but as property sales are declining if you cant sell at a price you might want you might not be able to pay for the village you want
True that the providers will have to meet the market to some extent, but during the GFC years house prices in real terms only declined 15% and so the retirees that can afford it are likely to still be able to do so (those that can only just afford it now would be the ones squeezed out of that market). So a decline is not going to make as big a dent as people think. Don't forget that even if the provider takes a haircut on the sale of a unit during a recession, they still get the resale in x years time when the property cycle will likely be at a different point. It's not like other businesses where when you sell a product it's gone and you have to make a new one to sell. Excluding the new construction (which they can choose to delay a lot of the time) they're just recycling the same product over and over again to new consumers.
True that the providers will have to meet the market to some extent, but during the GFC years house prices in real terms only declined 15% and so the retirees that can afford it are likely to still be able to do so (those that can only just afford it now would be the ones squeezed out of that market). So a decline is not going to make as big a dent as people think. Don't forget that even if the provider takes a haircut on the sale of a unit during a recession, they still get the resale in x years time when the property cycle will likely be at a different point. It's not like other businesses where when you sell a product it's gone and you have to make a new one to sell. Excluding the new construction (which they can choose to delay a lot of the time) they're just recycling the same product over and over again to new consumers.
Funny thing is NZ property market never had the cycles as have overseas markets , anyway selling a unit at a lesser margin hoping to gain later down the track doesnt take account of the ever higher debt profiles of the sector and the holding costs associated which means later down the track could still mean a loss.
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Originally Posted by JoeGrogan
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