MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[glasszon]

Lord knows the company doesn't care about the shareholders, it only wants to stuff its accounts again with cash! If you were smart you would sell off the portion of of your holding above the SPP up to $15k, buy back in and then play the waiting game. The best bet would be a 1 for 1 deal; every 1 share held allows you to buy 1 more at SPP, thereby mitigating a sell-off effect. But let's not let logic get in the way of cash, oh no!

I think for both SNK and MET (if they go down the same route) have different rationale as to why they do this.

For SNK they want to maximize the cash intake without having to do a prospectus, while it might hurt the existing shareholders in short term, but running out of liquidity in growth phase would be the last thing shareholders want anyway.

For MET, if they go the same route it would be because doing otherwise would mean little intake from the SPP, not sure how many shareholders are that keen to participate in the SPP given how this company has been performing, doubling down while you are down is hardly a good strategy to be successful in the share market.

As shown by the MRP float, I am not sure listing on ASX would change the share price much for this company.

[CJ]

For MET, if they go the same route it would be because doing otherwise would mean little intake from the SPP, not sure how many shareholders are that keen to participate in the SPP given how this company has been performing, doubling down while you are down is hardly a good strategy to be successful in the share market.

Down? Per Google, in the past 12m it is up 62% compared to 80 and 87 or SUM and RYM - so not 'great' but well above the NZX50 of 20%.

I think this also shows them wanting to get their finances in order so they can start buying more land. They currently only have sites for an extra 900 units which is plenty at their current build rate but only 4 years at their target of 200+ units. Ryman now has a target of 750 units by way of comparison (I think there landbank is also about 4 years).

They are also focusing on the upper north island which given their smaller size, makes sense that they specialise and given that is where over 50% of the population lives, seems a reasonable area to target.

Likewise, they will also start building care beds.

To me it looks like they have been studying RYM playbook which can only be a good thing.

The ASX listing looks like a cheap trick, same with SUM. It worked for XRO though.

[CJ]

Seems silly that they would want to start buying up more land in the most overvalued part of the country right when the Reserve Bank is ready to implement tools to intervene in the currency AND real estate markets, as well as start raising the OCR in the first month of next year, if not sooner!

Its overvalued for a reason - its where people want to live. They normally buy undeveloped land in brown/greenfields sites so are cheap compared to a subdivided site with services.

[CJ]

As long as they stick to that guidance then sweet

Agree that care does need to be taken to ensure they are not just empire building (ie. overpaying just to have more assets under ownership).

[macduffy]

I would think that the ASX listing is being done at the behest of the major (Aussie) shareholder, looking to broaden the market for future sell-downs?

No particular problem with that if it widens the potential market for the shares, but of course it comes at a price.

[Snow Leopard]

What is good here is that they know they have to get their build rate up, and a target of 200 units in just over a years time is good.
But beyond that they will need to be going much higher. To be Ryman-esque their current build rate should be 600+.

To fund the 200+ target they could probably kick it off within their existing $250M limit but a rapidly increasing target needs more cash, thus the need to cut down the current borrowings.

Once they get to a good rate and providing the profit on new units sales are good (requires self-building the units) then they could self-fund themselves from the cash flow.

What is also good is that they are moving to a greater number of care beds that is where you make actual cash profits as opposed to property re-evaluation gain profits (albeit with the quasi-liability occupancy advances cash behind them).

I bought my MET in the belief that they would be getting their act together and up the build rate (said so on this thread I think) and believe they are doing the right thing.

Could not care a hoot whether they list on the ASX or not.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Lizard]

Time to go back to an old toy then?

Attachment 4564
(credit: Craig Mahoney)

[janner]

Time to go back to an old toy then?

Attachment 4564
(credit: Craig Mahoney)

Grraaaaaa R Sorry Liz.. This is directed at percy.. .. told him weeks ago..

Metlife .. Not those other two.. ..

His problem is .. He is directing so much of his attention into HNZ..

It may not come to pass.. !!..

In the mean time it leaves me much in the same position..

HNZ... It may not come to pass :-))

Which brings me back to the head line

Time to pack old toys.. ?? Maybe ..

[CJ]

Placement at 3.10 so about a 9% discount. Shareprice should drop today on profit taking.

I assume the SPP will also be at 3.10 which will also keep a lid on the price for a while.

[Jasemc]

Any wisdom why SP is sitting still at $3.30? Thought would be closer to 3.10.