MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

Looks like a sure thing .....you’ve got besotted with it and convinced me ...i’ll be in next week

Winner Analytics Limited just had a call from a Mr Couta seeking advice as to the relativitynofvthe MET shareprice to the RYM share price

Confidentiality says I can’t tell you what it looks like but I’m into MET next week.

LOL - I don't want to know !!!!
Not besotted but the more I look the more my nose for a feed tells me to keep buying because there's compelling value and a giant sized feed coming here.
The value here is like an all you can eat buffet at Fortuna restaurant @ $25.95 for lunch. You simply cannot go wrong, unless of course you overeat and do a Couta1

[winner69]

One guesses one has to pay more if they get ‘premium’ ...homes got to make a profit somehow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12285790

No idea what it’s about or who but this thread seems most popular

[Snow Leopard]

I was keen on MET once but despite having everything in place to get their act together and lift their game - they did not.
I seem to recall IFT getting involved and then getting un-involved at some point.

Interestingly, for me at least, my records show that on the 10th Oct 2014 I finally sold out at $4.40 a share and could have bought in at exactly the same price exactly five years later. Although I would have forgone a net 35.5 cents in dividends* over the five years I am not crying over split milk.

But it is nice to see that in the long month since the 5 year anniversary it has put on an extra 80c and it does in theory look like it should have a few more cents of gain left in it, my enthusiasm for MET is tempered by the facts that:

a/ they are historically the real serial under-performer of the listed retirement village sector, having the knack of having snatched mediocrity from the jaws of success on numerous occasions, and

b/ Beagle is ramping them like mad.


Disc: may or may not have some, but if I do I paid more than $4.40.

Disc: thanks to Beagle for this amusing collections of pictures

*I pay a flat 15% tax on NZ dividends

[winner69]

MET currently is extremely cheap

One good thing about being that is that there’s at least 30% upside from here even if it was only going to get to cheap.

Was $6.50 just over a year ago ....heading back to at least that in the short term ....and seeing theyhave made another $100m or so even at $7 it would be cheap (but not extremely cheap)

[couta1]

Looks like a sure thing .....you’ve got besotted with it and convinced me ...i’ll be in next week

Winner Analytics Limited just had a call from a Mr Couta seeking advice as to the relativitynofvthe MET shareprice to the RYM share price

Confidentiality says I can’t tell you what it looks like but I’m into MET next week.

Beagle can stop crunching numbers now and wasting time, the Gold standard Couta ratio Theorum says that MET and SUM are both worth 50% of the RYM sp so there you have it, it's currently quite undervalued relative to both SUM and RYM. PS-Winner you had better hurry up and buy now the cats been let out of the bag

[Beagle]

a/ they are historically the real serial under-performer of the listed retirement village sector, having the knack of having snatched mediocrity from the jaws of success on numerous occasions, and

b/ Beagle is ramping them like mad.


Disc: thanks to Beagle for this amusing collections of pictures

As Couta1 has eluded too its true that RYM are the benchmark in this sector so my snout started to give off unusually strong indications of a forthcoming feed when I realised that MET have actually outperformed RYM 97% v 92% underlying earnings growth in the last five years and this at a time where Auckland real estate has been unusually flat, (where most of MET's villages are located).

I don't think the serial underperformer tag fits any more and wonder why MET has done quite satisfactorily against a background of such tame Auckland house price increases in the last 5 years ?
Could it be that RYM and for that matter OCA's care heavy model is less profitable that MET's business model which is primarily independent living ?
This sheds some light on the subject, (with thanks to Couta1 for sharing ) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ernment-ageist

MET's SP has seriously underperformed the sector in the last 5 years as has Auckland house prices underperformed N.Z. real estate and yet their underlying earnings haven't.
This suggests to me that sentiment against MET has been incredibly strong in recent years and only some of that is justified.

What you miss my furry friend is the local knowledge. The other day I opened the 2-3 times weekly Western Leader rag and couldn't help noticing the number of affordable opportunities MET were advertising in the greater West Auckland region. I really am talking affordable living for Auckland with a lot of options starting with a first digit of 3, 4 or 5. (Six figures not seven of course).

I think this differentiates them from the likes of RYM and to some extent SUM.

Not ramping, just pointing the opportunity out. I am happy to hold for some time as to be frank, its very difficult to find real value on the NZX anymore and there's no money in bonds or cash. Forward PE of just 10.7 does not normally go together with a company with a proven track record of growing underlying earnings at an average of 15% in the last 5 years.
My sense is that the funk the Auckland market has been in for years is coming to an end. Over the last 5 years MET's NTA has grown from $4.29, (yes they used to trade at 100% of NTA) to $6.96, total growth of 62%. I think the current discount to NTA is too big for the outlook looking forward for the next 5 years so having badly underperformed the sector over the last 5 years I expect MET's share price to outperform the sector looking ahead.

[peat]

MET had been one that was top of our list back at the brokers coz of the high book value.

eps down significantly as shown here. whats that all about
Attachment 10848
NPAT shown here
Attachment 10849

I guess I've missed something coz to me this looks bad.
Is this proving what someone else said recently (W69?) that its all in the property gains rather than caring for the old folk.

[Beagle]

Beagle can stop crunching numbers now and wasting time, the Gold standard Couta ratio Theorum says that MET and SUM are both worth 50% of the RYM sp so there you have it, it's currently quite undervalued relative to both SUM and RYM. PS-Winner you had better hurry up and buy now the cats been let out of the bag

Okay, so I'd better buy SUM more MET then That particular theory suits me nicely in regard to MET and the day SUM breaks though 60% of RYM's share price you'll hear all about it, I can assure you

[Beagle]

MET had been one that was top of our list back at the brokers coz of the high book value.

eps down significantly as shown here. whats that all about
Attachment 10848
NPAT shown here
Attachment 10849

I guess I've missed something coz to me this looks bad.
Is this proving what someone else said recently (W69?) that its all in the property gains rather than caring for the old folk.

International financial reporting standards (IFRS) require all property owning companies to report full revaluation inclusive profit each year. Poor year in Auckland last year saw IFRS profit drop substantially. All professional analysts use underlying earnings as the measure by which they compare companies in this sector.

[winner69]

Peat - that EPS is calculated on IFRS profit and was less in F19 v F18 because fair value adjustments fell from $133m in F18 to $54m in F19 because of slowdown in property market.

Most of these are unrealised gains ....will become realised and form part of underlying earnings one day

Everybody in the sector have this ‘problem’