MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

Interestingly as the plot thickens, (apart from MET itself), ARV is up the most in percentage terms this morning followed by SUM.
RYM hasn't moved much and even OCA is up nicely. Edit: Now reversed and SUM is up the most in percentage terms. I really think it is SUM.

The other day I worked out the forward PE at 10.7 assuming 15% earnings growth this year and that was, (if my memory serves me correctly at $5.20)
To get up to a similar forward PE to ARV and SUM (14-15) 14.5 / 10.7 x 5.20 = $7.05. This is probably very close to its current NTA.

I would think $7 is the minimum bid for this deal to happen.

[winner69]

I am happy you got on board mate

As Ibsaid over the weekend if you saw the chart (still subject confidentiality ) you’d agree it was a SCREAMING BUY ...not just cheap but exceptionally cheap.

Suppose RSI still saying it’s over bought.

[Bjauck]

A highly conditional expression of interest - I wonder if one of those conditions relates to a successful outcome of the $40m leaky building products claim against Hardie's. I am not sure how that claim is progressing.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12250271

[WAIKEN]

The coy considers the offer is too cheap. This is essentially a property play as well as a revenue play from its increasing care business. An offer of at least NTA would be fair. NTA at 30.6.19 was 6.95. I would estimate it will be above 7.15 by 31.12.19.
The price was around 6.50 only 13 months ago with far less good news, no share buy back and no bid in the wings. The current price is far to pessimistic. Another retirement village operator will also be able to achieve considerable economies of scale.
7.00 would be too cheap to buy MET. I think the price could retrace if the bid is withdrawn but MET is now in the limelight and it has great potential for steady growth in earnings, NTA and dividend yield over the next decade.

[Beagle]

A highly conditional expression of interest - I wonder if one of those conditions relates to a successful outcome of the $40m leaky building products claim against Hardie's. I am not sure how that claim is progressing.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12250271

I think the key bit of info there is that MET have already provisioned for the repair costs in their balance sheet and still we have a net $6.96 net tangible asset backing as at 30/6/2019. Any successful action against James Hardie or anyone else would obviously be value accretive.

Market cap MET ~ $1.2b
Market cap ARV ~ $0.5b
Market cap SUM ~ $1.7b
Market cap OCA ~ $0.6b
Market Cap RYM ~ $7.2b

Logically, only RYM or SUM could pull this deal off but could there be interest from an overseas institution / retirement fund ?

[winner69]

I think the key bit of info there is that MET have already provisioned for the repair costs in their balance sheet and still we have a net $6.96 net tangible asset backing as at 30/6/2019. Any successful action against James Hardie or anyone else would obviously be value accretive.

Market cap MET ~ $1.2b
Market cap ARV ~ $0.5b
Market cap SUM ~ $1.7b
Market cap OCA ~ $0.6b
Market Cap RYM ~ $7.2b

Logically, only RYM or SUM could pull this deal off but could there be interest from an overseas institution / retirement fund ?

Be an overseas financier / fund for sure

No problems with OIO ...they don’t seem to mind the country being sold off.

[Snow Leopard]

Nice that all my retirement operators are up because one gets a cheeky offer.
Should have thought of it before

[Maverick]

Well done and contragulations Beagle and Winner, (and Couta yesterday on ATM) I'm thrilled you all were rewarded for your strategies.

[mfd]

IFT have a market cap of 3.2 billion, can be opportunistic when they smell a good deal, and have history of dragging in other partners to share the costs. Seems unlikely though after recently buying Vodafone and not seeming too keen on their existing Australian retirement home operator.

[winner69]

IFT have a market cap of 3.2 billion, can be opportunistic when they smell a good deal, and have history of dragging in other partners to share the costs. Seems unlikely though after recently buying Vodafone and not seeming too keen on their existing Australian retirement home operator.

Infratil did OK with Metlifecare a few years ago before they sold out