MET - Metlifecare - one for the fundies?

[Beagle]

That is definitely spooky possums stuff

Possums and Beagles get same answer

Keeping my snout close to the ground. My nose tells me there's another ~ $1 feed per share coming for the patient puppies compared to today's closing price.
I'm overweight already and definitely don't need another feed right at the moment

[Joshuatree]

Attachment 10906Attachment 10906

My friend Crackity sent me this.

Dog a deer ,a big male deer, crack, a ray of golden sun
beagle a name i call myself
So, its time to put aside and have whole alot of fun.

Thanks leonard cohen "there is a crack in everything......thats where the light gets in.

[BlackPeter]

Keeping my snout close to the ground. My nose tells me there's another ~ $1 feed per share coming for the patient puppies compared to today's closing price.
I'm overweight already and definitely don't need another feed right at the moment

I can't comment on your weight but agree that a better offer is quite likely to come. I guess - seriously - who in his/her right mind would make their first offer as well the last and best? And the fact that there are several interested parties makes the whole thing much more interesting.

Holding a medium sized parcel myself and quite relaxed at the current share price. No need to rush to the sell button.

[Beagle]

I guess - seriously - who in his/her right mind would make the first offer as well the last and best?

Agree 100%
They tell the board the NBIO is $6.50. Board tells them its not enough but agrees to allow due diligence. They do a whole month of thorough due diligence anyway spending all that time on it and knowing all that time that $6.50 is unlikely to be enough and knowing that under the takeovers code they're up for MET's professional costs including legal and Jarden. They then bid $6.50 and the board sounds out major shareholders who also say its not enough.
In the meantime two other parties express serious interest. Honestly, I would speculate its highly likely there is a better offer forthcoming in due course. Probably negotiations are happening with major shareholders at present and may conclude over the weekend.
Increased offer next week ?
At the grave risk of being dogmatic, Its got to start with a "7".

[Scrunch]

Okay, yes, the valuation range extends to $8+.

Its interesting, but not in a good way that the valuation boffin's can only get to 10% above NTA (assuming NTA is now $7.25). Most comparator companies (RYM, SUM, ADV) are over 40% above NTA and even OCA had a trade today at 20% over NTA. MET management need to have a good look at what everyone else is doing differently &/or better. A small clue would be their new build rate. Till they do that and make some changes, a bid at NTA would probably change the management team running MET.

If there was a good reason that these other companies multiples to NTA were to become applicable to MET, the valuation models should be able to kick out a $10+ valuation and that doesn't require using RYM at the comparator.

[Balance]

Closed at $6.12 up 12 cents. Its going to be fascinating how this plays out. I'm up for this and committed to hold while its well under fair value which I assess at $7.25

I have no need for extra cash for Christmas but completely understand if others do or want to take a quick profit.

First bid is never the last bid.

Opening shot imo.

$8+ valuation is too high a mountain for the bidder to climb so expect a compromise bid to emerge.

10% more to the offer price of $6.50 plus payment of special dividend will get the deal done.

[Beagle]

Its interesting, but not in a good way that the valuation boffin's can only get to 10% above NTA (assuming NTA is now $7.25). Most comparator companies (RYM, SUM, ADV) are over 40% above NTA and even OCA had a trade today at 20% over NTA. MET management need to have a good look at what everyone else is doing differently &/or better. A small clue would be their new build rate. Till they do that and make some changes, a bid at NTA would probably change the management team running MET.

If there was a good reason that these other companies multiples to NTA were to become applicable to MET, the valuation models should be able to kick out a $10+ valuation and that doesn't require using RYM at the comparator.

Agreed and therein lies the value to the acquirer.

[Beagle]

First bid is never the last bid.

Opening shot imo.

$8+ valuation is too high a mountain for the bidder to climb so expect a compromise bid to emerge.

10% more to the offer price of $6.50 plus payment of special dividend will get the deal done.

Bang on the money mate. With two other interested parties nipping at their heels, the bidder will want to wrap up negotiations with major shareholders over the weekend and present this as effectively a done deal next week, in my opinion.

$7.25 is where I called it many pages ago. Allows everyone to save face, (small premium to 30 June 2019 NTA), and leaves plenty of meat on the bone for the bidder.

[Cadalac123]

Extremely tempting to short-term trade this, but I feel like the burn from the deal not going through will be extremely painful given the leg-up in shareprice already lol

[macduffy]

Extremely tempting to short-term trade this, but I feel like the burn from the deal not going through will be extremely painful given the leg-up in shareprice already lol

I'm working on the premise that the bid has disclosed the extent to which MET was being under-valued by the market. Some retracement is possible but interest has been kindled and the fire has now been lit!