NZSX50 - Good News!

[Hoop]

It must be like trying to chart the election for all you TA's, who's polling ahead Hoop ?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...election-looms

If the NZX50 pause is a result showing investor caution towards the election then National win is not a sure bet...eh Mac?...

However there are tons of variables in play not just the election variable..although I would assume the election variable is becoming more of a major shorter term market focus as we near election day...The million $ question is how much election risk is already factored into the market..

It's hard to know but looking at these large yield rates with GEN MELCA MRP etc, I personally give it a guess that the power sector ( the sector which are in Labour/Green cross hairs) has already factored in a "reasonable" amount of election risk already.

Hoop, we have a very fast sinking dollar. Uptrend resumed in the short term?

Hard to know Moosie....TA wise, if the price jumps up above the price channel then there's a good chance we may see a new record high which resumes the uptrend....Theoretically one assumes NZ companies operating and/or exporting mostly outside NZ but values itself in NZ$ would fundamentally perform better...but in reality we are dictated by a market to buy/sell shares so it all comes down to amount of available money that market has on offer (demand)....Everyone knows by now (e.g QE) that markets perform well and trend up when there's easy money available....

I assume that the falling dollar shows investors are overall taking more money out of NZ than bringing it in...that is a negative current that the NZX50 has to swim harder against for it to reach new record highs (resumed up trend).
The other negative currents that come to mind are falling terms of trade (dairy) and the "perceived" anti-corporate mood and more business regulatory stance of the Opposition against National....

Media plays its part too by amplifying noise which disrupts signals and creates uncertainty (re election time)...... Investors hate uncertainty..

EDIT: A positive signal so far today.. the 5200 level is reached which could result in a price channel breakout at close