sharetrader
Page 5 of 231 FirstFirst 1234567891555105 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 50 of 2310
  1. #41
    Member sharer's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    321

    Default

    As Yankiwi mentioned: "... (yes I've clicked on the "add to reputation" icon on so many of your posts, it wont let me add to yours anymore) "
    Me too! There's obviously some sort of conspiracy afoot. After all, if too many of us acheive enlightenment from studying alongside Phaedrus the whole capitalist system could collapse (again).
    Seriously Phaedrus, the first thing i do at logon is scan all the thread folders to see if you have another post up for contemplation. If so, i contemplate for a bit before moving over to login to DB trading. Like so many of the other shy newbies young & old here who are benefiting from your contributions, the only reason for a lack of discussion in reply is simple ignorance (in my case) & not wanting to add too much to the background noise. Should add straight away how much i appreciate also those like Hoop just now who do have the ability to contribute on the topic.
    Meanwhile my largely instinctual approach has made me a bit risk averse lately, & more inclined to cash in a few chips here & there. When i see a new Phaedrus chart with all those red queries all over the index ahead, it does make me nervous!

  2. #42
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,408

    Default

    Hi Phaedrus
    Thanks again for your posts
    This "joke" of predicting the NZX50 has come to be very interesting.
    Re support and ressitance on indicies, would you normally look back 4-5 years on a stock and if not is the long term index S & R's then going to help determine whether you are going to enter a trade

    Thoughts anyone

  3. #43
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand.
    Posts
    820

    Default

    I think a bull market correction is coming... 10% looks about right.
    as does 3240 target back to 2,900

    but then again, it might be a bit early in the bull market for a 10% correction, yuo might only get 5%
    “If you're worried about falling off the bike, you’d never get on.”

  4. #44
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    dunedin, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    241

    Default

    Sir P,
    no to 5, yes to 6, and i have to 'spread some reputation around' before i add more to yours. scamper's university papers means that eyes are mostly off the ball, so i haven't taken sensible precautions or grabbed opportunities this year -- all a bit sad really...
    Anyway, thanks for the posts. cheers from scamper.

  5. #45
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,936

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Walfootrot View Post
    Hi Phaedrus - did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 (?) in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?
    Wal, the philosophy behind my Index monitoring systems was exhaustively discussed here. My approach has been tuned and refined over the years, but in essence it remains the same as explained in that old post from 2007. There is further explanation in post #8 and others on that same thread. Did I keep to my system? Yes.

    The NZSX50 peaked at 4333 and it had fallen to 4071 before most of my exit indicators were triggered. Similarly, the market bottomed at 2418 in March, but had risen to around 2600 by the time most of my "re-enter the market" indicators had fired. I did indulge in a few short-term trades on the way down, though, with mixed success. Many of my old charts have been bumped from the system but I am able to re-post any that are of particular interest to anybody. Just ask.

    Yankiwi, if it hadn't been for your query I would never have stumbled across this interesting situation. I am sorry if you felt targeted by my rant - believe me that was never my intention and I apologise whole-heartedly if I have offended you in any way at all. My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!

    Thanks for the support, people. I appreciate it.

  6. #46
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Another interesting question (for me anyway )....
    Q....How strong are these R&S lines,...some just don't work???
    A....When I have doubts about R&S especially in 2008 crash times when a resistance line seemed like it never existed...I compared these R&S lines with other R&S systems. One of the best is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Charting System. This system is a better measure of Resistance and Support as it is multidimensional... not just a simple drawn 2 D line on a chart that most of us use here on ST.

    The NZX50 chart below may seem complex but when looking at it for the first time remember to keep it simple by remembering 2 things that are the topic of this Sharetrader (ST) thread
    1... looking for powerful R&S lines using Ichi as a reference
    2... Looking for a future change in a trend (e.g when could a possible correction occur).

    OK ...for our two goals and keeping it ultra-simple we will ignore several bits of information on the chart including the green and the single red line...no worries.
    Also remember the inside of the kumo (cloud) is resistance and/or support

    Looking for powerful R&S lines..the most obvious one is the 2750 in July 2009 ..see how the index bounces up off the bottom of the Kumo (shaded green). when we see the bounce + there was a similar action at this 2750 at the beginning of 2009 we know that R&S 2750 line is huge.
    Another R&S level which is of interest is the 3378 line which is not far away now....it was powerful back in Aug/Sept 2008. Is it powerful now? we will know when it happens. 3600 could be another to watch in the future. Also note that new R&S levels can be formed.

    When will there be a possible trend change? Notice how the Kumo extends past today into November 2009. The Kumo expands and contracts with volatility of the index. The thicker the kumo the greater the Resistance ad Support it provides..when the Kumo becomes very thin to the point that it may twist ( e.g red to green...green to red) at this point the Kumo (or lack of) offers the least support and could result in a trend change....downwards in this case.

    See from the chart when the index is above the kumo it falls when the Kumo is thin

    At this moment notice how the index is not far above the Kumo..also note that within a month that kumo will be not be as thick and with the index a lot nearer the kumo this time increases the chance that any selling pressure maybe enough to cause a downtrend change pulling the index down back into the Kumo to test its weak thin bottom support...If the index falls below the Kumo ..the kumo becomes a resistance object.


    Using Ichimoku in conjunction with Phaedrus chart using R&S lines the 2 different principles confirm with each other that this is a time that an investor should be cautious and alert.


    Last edited by Hoop; 10-10-2009 at 12:59 AM. Reason: oops forgot chart

  7. #47
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    233

    Red face That would be me

    Quote Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
    My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!
    Lurker delurking here.

    I read the forums daily, and I find your posts informative and useful in my decision making.

    Having said that, I like being environmentally conscious about what I write. Too many pixels are wasted on useless comments ^_^

    I try to post when I have something to say...which is rarely.

    If the NZX50 hits 4300 on 19 Dec 2011 I'll send you a Xmas present and a few sacrificial goats your way.

  8. #48
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    Nzx is still one of the worst performers on a return basis over the last 6 months does this mean we have a better chance of better returns going ahead to catch up with the rest or does this mean we will plunge quicker when the rest do?
    one step ahead of the herd

  9. #49
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Tauranga, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    717

    Thumbs up

    Pheadras,your posts are brilliant and have taught me heaps.

    Over the last few years I have learned through you,regarding TA, to 'Keep It Simple' which is what I adhere to now,you are a great teacher with too much bloody time on his hands haha.
    But seriously,you put a lot of time and effort into demonstrating the principles that Probably keep you profitable,ha.
    The fact that so many people view your posts,must be uplifting even if they don't comment.

  10. #50
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Tauranga, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    717

    Default

    Hoop,perhaps you could explain what all the colour coded lines are on your chart,I am presuming the red thin line is the nzx50? Much abliged.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •