NZSX50 - Good News!

[bull....]

breaking out from the inverted head an shoulders on the daily looks like a target of 8800 pretty quick if wall st behaves

reached our target nicely , still looking good the trend at the moment.

[bull....]

at 10,000 plus ....maybe later

looking good a winner although the article below from forsyth doesnt think so. although i recall a lot of them fellas from brokerages been saying so for a couple years now guess they be right one day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12067173

[BobbyMorocco]

as J Ryder...recently said...."dance near the door".I believe I am correct but if not I apologize.

I believe I'm trying to do what he means by this, but maybe I'm not the best dancer. Sometimes I trip up and find I've stumbled out the door too early. Then I'm left watching people at the party still having a great time while I stand near the door thinking that the price to re-enter is too steep.

[BlackPeter]

I believe I'm trying to do what he means by this, but maybe I'm not the best dancer. Sometimes I trip up and find I've stumbled out the door too early. Then I'm left watching people at the party still having a great time while I stand near the door thinking that the price to re-enter is too steep.

Happens to all of us. Impossible to determine the top while you are there because it is impossible to predict the future value of shares.

You can only be cautious and sell early (and likely to loose out on some future gains) or greedy and sell late (and therefore loosing out on the descent). If there would be a method to determine the top while you are at it, it would not work anyway because everybody would apply this method and try to sell at the same time ... but nobody would buy anymore. Joys of being part of a level 2 chaotic system ...

LEVEL TWO CHAOS IS WHEN THE PREDICTIONS THEMSELVES CHANGE the outcome of the chaos

[BobbyMorocco]

Very true, but isn't it fun to be a part of it! I guess by nature I consider myself a cautious person when it comes to finances and I don't think I'm greedy because I'm pretty content with what I have. When you think about that it makes sense that I'd find myself on the side of selling too early to lock in profits more often than not. Hopefully as I learn more about myself and the market I'll get closer to exiting at the elusive peak.

[bull....]

see the whole rally in the nzx last mth is being mainly lead by the fph , spk , gentailers utility type companies, a2 has declined as well some other previous leaders of the rally

[troyvdh]

Blackpeter...indeed it does...and Bobby...yes it is...I suppose a few historic comments are warranted here...i.,e...you cant go bust making a profit...when one buys a share-it can help to determine a sell price....when the tide goes out....returns of about 7 % pa (consistently) is respectable....would you sell and buy the company again today...I could go on.I often look (ANZ SEC) at the NZ50 3 year chart...and my neck gets really sore.,...I somewhat afraid to look at the 4-5 -6 year chart....cheers.

Just thinking perhaps its disclosure time..i.e dosh in the mkts...about $165k..Oz and nz

[Scrunch]

Happens to all of us. Impossible to determine the top while you are there because it is impossible to predict the future value of shares.

And its possible, just possible that we are no-where near the top. Its easy to make the case that the markets over-valued, but that doesn't explain why there is continued buying and a generally rising market. Are we part of a bigger, system phase in which the return provided for taking on risk is systematically decreasing from historical levels, driving prices up?

If a utility or other "safe" share can pay a gross dividend above the gross interest rate you can get on low risk (not no-risk) interest rate products, its it really that expensive. Could it be sensible to inflate share prices to close the positive differential that shares have - especially since dividend payout rates tend to increase over time?

[bull....]

And its possible, just possible that we are no-where near the top. Its easy to make the case that the markets over-valued, but that doesn't explain why there is continued buying and a generally rising market. Are we part of a bigger, system phase in which the return provided for taking on risk is systematically decreasing from historical levels, driving prices up?

If a utility or other "safe" share can pay a gross dividend above the gross interest rate you can get on low risk (not no-risk) interest rate products, its it really that expensive. Could it be sensible to inflate share prices to close the positive differential that shares have - especially since dividend payout rates tend to increase over time?

agree interest rates in nz will be low for years , even mortgage rates are falling again so even the banks think so too. utilities in nz are still very attractive from a income perspective if you believe the rates story

[Joshuatree]

Curious, who has prudently stepped through the exit or at least opened it ,ie taken money out of the market?