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24-10-2018, 02:30 PM
#1691
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Good point. So - red stands for hype and we are in a time of hype deflation?
One way of looking at it BP
Sharetraders get caught up in the general market hype .....maybe, like lambs to the slaughter.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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24-10-2018, 02:32 PM
#1692
One other thing with that table is that most of the bigger ‘losers’ are still making more money than last year.
PE multiples are what drive market direction
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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24-10-2018, 02:56 PM
#1693
Originally Posted by winner69
One other thing with that table is that most of the bigger ‘losers’ are still making more money than last year.
PE multiples are what drive market direction
i reckon market sentiment drives market direction and p/e multiples are simply a mathematical outcome of that.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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24-10-2018, 03:03 PM
#1694
Originally Posted by peat
i reckon market sentiment drives market direction and p/e multiples are simply a mathematical outcome of that.
Market sentiment = how much am I prepared to pay for a $ of earnings
That is an ‘input’ decision from punters — meaning PE is not really a mathematical ‘outcome’
But I suppose we agree PE is a measure of market sentiment
Last edited by winner69; 24-10-2018 at 03:04 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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24-10-2018, 08:34 PM
#1695
Originally Posted by winner69
One way of looking at it BP
Sharetraders get caught up in the general market hype .....maybe, like lambs to the slaughter.
The NZX capital index chart got ugly today dropping convincingly below 200 E&DMA. Below the uptrend line from 2012, now resistance. Ugly. Modest support around 8370 then 7360 below that (monthly log chart). October! History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Or something like that. Still heaps of headroom for the long haulers, but they also know corrections can turn into crashes and it all happens in excruciatingly slow motion. You look back and ask yourself why if you saw it coming that you did nothing about it.
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24-10-2018, 10:13 PM
#1696
Member
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24-10-2018, 10:46 PM
#1697
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
The NZX capital index chart got ugly today dropping convincingly below 200 E&DMA. Below the uptrend line from 2012, now resistance. Ugly. Modest support around 8370 then 7360 below that (monthly log chart). October! History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Or something like that. Still heaps of headroom for the long haulers, but they also know corrections can turn into crashes and it all happens in excruciatingly slow motion. You look back and ask yourself why if you saw it coming that you did nothing about it.
That is so true Baa Baa, I have been watching profits dissapear and red arrows appear instead and i keep telling myself when they go back up I will sell them! They just dont seem to be going back up this time! Maybe they wont
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25-10-2018, 06:56 AM
#1698
Originally Posted by RupertBear
That is so true Baa Baa, I have been watching profits dissapear and red arrows appear instead and i keep telling myself when they go back up I will sell them! They just dont seem to be going back up this time! Maybe they wont
Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.
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25-10-2018, 07:55 AM
#1699
Originally Posted by couta1
Fear not young bear, over the long horizon the stock market has always gone up.PS-Did I forget to mention that the longest recovery period on a down cycle on the Dow was 25 yrs, lots of patience may be required.
Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'.
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25-10-2018, 08:09 AM
#1700
Originally Posted by Left field
Indexes are an average measure. Even in Bear markets there will be individual stocks that outperform the 'averages'.
You must of course be referring to HLG.
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