NZSX50 - Good News!

[Hoop]

Do you mean misalignment from value and current share price??

Annualised PE Ratio is very high for this stage of the secular Bear cycle (13 years old)...Although it is still at the high side of fair value only because the inflation rate is in that sweet spot zone at 1.58%. Thats only one cog in the overall system however ...Strangely (that effect for the media and the laypeople), not many points mention share price value..probably because the market values everything as fairly valued according to its "now" system environment that it lives in....So the points mentioned are those things that slowly effects change within the system environment that the Equity Market lives in ..... Equity Market Cycle reversals are due to slow systemic changes, much of it undramatic so goes undetected (unless you look for it)*** .....the ultimate tipping point trigger could be a very minor insignificant event...(Butterfly wings...eh?) That's the reason why most investors don't realise the exact time of the bull/bear reversal believing the market fall to be another buy in the dip Bull Market Correction and the media is still bullish encouraging the market is healthy...so with that denial that's nothing has changed (no dramatic event) the money trap is set.

*** the reason for these types of forum posts

Many points cover Correlations and disconnects typical of the last phase of Equity Bull Markets throughout history ..such as the current Copper/Equity disconnect...High margin debt..High IPO activity...fiscal tightening..lower inflation environment showing signs of ending..Also sentiment indicators...and behavioural attitudes e.g Investors harshly criticising anyone who bearish....The absence of perma-bear fund managers...stupid,lack of commonsense activity doesn't seem stupid or risky anymore as they are now highly profitable activities ...Hmmm about 20 more..I'll try to find my list..I've got one for both top of bull and top of bull cycles on my computer somewhere...

[winner69]

I agree, and I think sometimes people forget that they still are at an extraordinary rate! Important to note that while "tapering" has started, it hasn't put a huge dent in the pace of QE. It was $85b per month, and if memory serves me right it is now $65b?? regardless it is still a BIG amount of money per month and will continue for a while yet to some extent.

So right .... amazing how many who think that tapering means QE has ended. Its still going on

I don't think it has down to $65 billion a month yet turmeric

Will continue for a long time ... at least to the next presidential elections ..... and wont stop until Wall St banks have managed to offload most of their toxic debt / mortgages to the Fed .... all under the guise of Quantitative Easing

[Snow Leopard]

For those thinking the NZX may be getting toppy and thinking of changing Kiwi's to 'Roos on the ASX:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/imag...0324071204.png

We're looking a bit toppy at 95 cents and we've had a double top there. If the Aussie breaks out vs the USD we could see the Kiwi falling back to 90.

Possibly you could have gone into a greater depth in your analysis and considered alternative scenarios?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

Sorry PT, didn't have time as posted between my bites of Tiger Brand Supercereal, breakfast of champions. I'm sure the big boys and girls on here can use that as a stepping stone for further DYOR, I sure know where I stand

I sure know where I stand ...Do you?...
Further explanation.. using your view why the other scenarios should not happen will remove the doubt

EDIT:...NZX50 reference???

[Xerof]

There's a whole stream of currency threads moosie, see Forex

I shall forgive you for your all-time-high comment, as you are young and canadian

the high for NZD/USD is ~ 1.25, (and in my lifetime too), so only another 40 cents before we retest it!

[Hoop]

All time high for Kiwi, unsustainable AUDxNZD cross, China looking to stimulus = Aussie mining picking up = stronger economy = stronger AUD, not to mention theetechnical chart I posted pointing to possible breakout on the main currency AUD is compared with.

A bit happier now?

Yes..

Theres no currency thread and thought others might want a heads up, not to mentiob companies like EBO and FBU being affected...

AUDNZD five year lows ST forex thread

So are you suggesting FBU is going to go from bearish to bullish?
and
Are you suggesting that the RBNZ flagging another 4 rate rises this year is already factored into the NZ$..To me that flagging suggests NZ economy is going to remain/get stronger wouldn't it??...Wouldn't this suggest NZX50 index will remain strong and perhaps over take the AORDS index?..Wouldn't it also suggest the NZ$ will remain Globally strong and helped along by a resurgence of the A$ together with NZ 2nd biggest trading partner "coming right" economically.....
OK..that's a rosy argument side
I could come up with an equality pessimistic argument side as well..commodities ???(Aussi is commodity driven economy too?)...but hey I'm in optimistic mode today

..Try me tommorrow

[Mista_Trix]

NZX volumes up but value drops
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ut-value-drops

Purely speculation below...
As Hoop likes to remind us, falls happen when everyone's 'all in' and there's no more money pushing prices up.
Are we seeing that with a larger amount of smaller trades occurring, and a fewer amount of larger ones??
... ... as in, the last guys left are now jumping in.

[nextbigthing]

Attachment 5678

Each one of these downtrends lasts around 6 weeks or so and an average of about 200 points.

Attachment 5679
If a new one has started, sell now, wait six weeks, then buy up large

Disc; NBT is in no way a chartist and takes no responsibility for any decisions made. Ask Hoop or someone else that knows what they're doing.

[winner69]

Pretty picture

Each one of these downtrends lasts a while and an average looses heaps

If a new one has started, sell now, wait a while and buy heaps

Sorry nbt - not the NZX50 but why ruin a good story

[nextbigthing]

Sorry nbt - not the NZX50 but why ruin a good story

Don't be sorry Winner. Close correlation between the two. Makes sense.

Attachment 5681

Certainly something to be aware of. When it falls it's going to hit hard I guess.