NZSX50 - Good News!

[Hoop]

It must be like trying to chart the election for all you TA's, who's polling ahead Hoop ?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...election-looms

If the NZX50 pause is a result showing investor caution towards the election then National win is not a sure bet...eh Mac?...

However there are tons of variables in play not just the election variable..although I would assume the election variable is becoming more of a major shorter term market focus as we near election day...The million $ question is how much election risk is already factored into the market..

It's hard to know but looking at these large yield rates with GEN MELCA MRP etc, I personally give it a guess that the power sector ( the sector which are in Labour/Green cross hairs) has already factored in a "reasonable" amount of election risk already.

Hoop, we have a very fast sinking dollar. Uptrend resumed in the short term?

Hard to know Moosie....TA wise, if the price jumps up above the price channel then there's a good chance we may see a new record high which resumes the uptrend....Theoretically one assumes NZ companies operating and/or exporting mostly outside NZ but values itself in NZ$ would fundamentally perform better...but in reality we are dictated by a market to buy/sell shares so it all comes down to amount of available money that market has on offer (demand)....Everyone knows by now (e.g QE) that markets perform well and trend up when there's easy money available....

I assume that the falling dollar shows investors are overall taking more money out of NZ than bringing it in...that is a negative current that the NZX50 has to swim harder against for it to reach new record highs (resumed up trend).
The other negative currents that come to mind are falling terms of trade (dairy) and the "perceived" anti-corporate mood and more business regulatory stance of the Opposition against National....

Media plays its part too by amplifying noise which disrupts signals and creates uncertainty (re election time)...... Investors hate uncertainty..

EDIT: A positive signal so far today.. the 5200 level is reached which could result in a price channel breakout at close

[winner69]

Hoop, we have a very fast sinking dollar. Uptrend resumed in the short term?

Did you know Wheeler was going to get up and early and do some trading while the world was asleep?

He may have got lucky

[Bjauck]

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/p-...044610310.html

Maybe Uncle Sam's pockets are bottomless after all.

[Mista_Trix]

Anything interesting in here?
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tin-rev...2014-ck-161503


- anyone with NBR access willing to help

[BlackPeter]

Hmm - business confidence continues to drop: House prices down, interest up, commodity prices down, first monthly trade deficit for 9 months. Maybe we didn't pay enough attention and missed the moment where the rock star economy peaked and fired on all two cylinders (dairy & ChCh rebuild)?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-busi...gust-bd-161652

All downhill from here - or just a brief opportunity to recover from all this growth before the next steep climb?

[BlackPeter]

Anything interesting in here?
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tin-rev...2014-ck-161503


- anyone with NBR access willing to help

Why don't you check just http://www.tinetwork.co.nz/tin100/ti...owth-companies ?

It is better info and free access. Hard to understand why NBR paywalls their quite thin snippet on the TIN list.

However - from past experience - I question the value of the list anyway. I've seen in recent years companies under their top ten where the claimed growth on the list was based on very questionable (and quite old) data, and where (at list publishing time) the celebrated company was already ways downhill and preparing a sequence of redundancy rounds while TIN still celebrated them.

Not saying it is this year the case (I don't know), just saying the list is basically meaningless. Particularly when talking about private companies, the info in the list is more descriptive of the respective marketings managers hype, than of the real state of the company.

[Hoop]

NZX50 Index has gone nowhere for 6 months now.

Meandering trendless index lines makes many TA indicators less reliable...

Interesting to see the 2007 support on the chart.....The NZX is ~22% ahead of October 2007.... when adjusted for inflation of 16.6% (RBNZ) it doesn't leave much ..eh?

[Hoop]

Big money is leaving for safer climates Hoop. Thunk is imminent.

Next dairy auctions tomorrow and 16th. Next OCR decision on 11th.

Yes all announcements will be keenly watched for trend directional hints..also.. I wonder how much money is leaving NZ to safer havens and how much effect it may be causing...there seems to be scant data on this...

National was earlier viewed as sleeping walking to victory but last week it stepped on dog poo so this will be an interesting new development.. in seeing how this extra factor plays out by the markets in the next couple of weeks

[Billy Boy]

Quite right Hoop
A great way to make markets drop is to create uncertainty.
And there's a fair dose to that headed our way. From lots
of angles.
BB

[noodles]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...k-markets.html

So we are expensive.