NZSX50 - Good News!

[blackcap]

Gentailers and AIR

I do not actually think the market will move upwards that much tomorrow. A National victory will have been already priced into the market as the smart money only gave a 10% chance of a change in govt in the last 2 weeks before the election. So see some rises because uncertainty is gone and because National have a stronger mandate than before (and that was/is the unexpected part) but apart from that I think it is game on as per usual.

[Beagle]

I do not actually think the market will move upwards that much tomorrow. A National victory will have been already priced into the market as the smart money only gave a 10% chance of a change in govt in the last 2 weeks before the election. So see some rises because uncertainty is gone and because National have a stronger mandate than before (and that was/is the unexpected part) but apart from that I think it is game on as per usual.

Market hates uncertainty mate and a little pre-election talk of an enquiry into AIR's regional airfares will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than just talk now that National are back in. John Key is a pragmatist and an intelligent businessman as well as having the Tourism portfolio and won't want to bring any untoward pressure on AIR that would affect their 53% shareholding. Agree that the odds of a multi-headed left alliance were slim but it's good to have a clear win and not be subject to weeks of Winston Peter's holding the country to ransom while he works to maximise his own personal agenda. Relief rally from over-sold position in AIR is quite a different and more enticing prospect to any further gains in the gentailers which are already up about 7% in the lead-up to the election.

That said I added to Genesis in the lead up to the election, people seem to have forgotten they beat the IPO forecast by 18% and are forecasting a 16 cps dividend fully imputed, (gross 22.22cps 11.7% yield) for 2015 and are still trading cum the final 2014 fully imputed 6.6 cps divvy

[blackcap]

Market hates uncertainty mate and a little pre-election talk of an enquiry into AIR's regional airfares will hopefully turn out to be nothing more than just talk now that National are back in. John Key is a pragmatist and an intelligent businessman as well as having the Tourism portfolio and won't want to bring any untoward pressure on AIR that would affect their 53% shareholding. Agree that the odds of a multi-headed left alliance were slim but it's good to have a clear win and not be subject to weeks of Winston Peter's holding the country to ransom while he works to maximise his own personal agenda. Relief rally from over-sold position in AIR is quite a different and more enticing prospect to any further gains in the gentailers which are already up about 7% in the lead-up to the election.

That said I added to Genesis in the lead up to the election, people seem to have forgotten they beat the IPO forecast by 18% and are forecasting a 16 cps dividend fully imputed, (gross 22.22cps 11.7% yield) for 2015 and are still trading cum the final 2014 fully imputed 6.6 cps divvy

What you write makes sense Roger. By the way my comment was not aimed at you in particular if you were wondering. I clicked on reply with quote instead of reply and did not think much of it. But yep its the fact that uncertainty is gone that may help. But this is only one thing. Markets are fickle and if some other "shock" happens we could just as well fall tomorrow. Still think individual stocks (power co's) and others like you mentioned will benefit over the next years.

[Beagle]

All good mate I love a good debate. With this clear win and low interest rates and bond yields I see little point in holding cash or bonds in the foreseeable future.

[Huskeez]

NATIONAL! Back to new highs ???

[Major von Tempsky]

I do not actually think the market will move upwards that much tomorrow. A National victory will have been already priced into the market as the smart money only gave a 10% chance of a change in govt in the last 2 weeks before the election. So see some rises because uncertainty is gone and because National have a stronger mandate than before (and that was/is the unexpected part) but apart from that I think it is game on as per usual.

Up 65 , 1.3%, as at 11.20 this morning, Blackcap.

[Beagle]

Couple of things. Left are in complete disarray. John Key has indicated a propensity towards being keen on a fourth term and he's s smart man so may make some in-roads towards softening up Winston and / or the Greens for some accommodation next time. Six more years of political stability providing a stable business friendly environment for companies to grow ?

[blackcap]

Up 65 , 1.3%, as at 11.20 this morning, Blackcap.

Exactly, not that much like I said yesterday. Its good but not really earth shattering. But over the next year or two, barring other factors the National led govt will do well for NZ.

[couta1]

Exactly, not that much like I said yesterday. Its good but not really earth shattering. But over the next year or two, barring other factors the National led govt will do well for NZ.

The market started off in a sprint this morning but the competitors are realizing they are actually in a marathon race and have reduced pace to last the full distance, I'm starting to realize just how close market and sports psychology really are

[OldRider]

With the ASX and NZX indices coming closer to each other by a little over 100 points so far today,
dare one wonder if the trend might continue such that the NZ50 grows to exceed the ASX 200.
Might NZ assume the mantle of the lucky country?