NZSX50 - Good News!

[nextbigthing]

Here is a good one for Australia.... do not know if there is a comparable one for NZ. Do not think so....

http://www.morningstar.com.au/Stocks/CorpCalendar

Thanks Blackcap, that's a good one, but yeah after the NZ version.

[nextbigthing]

So who's having fun out there at the moment? Enjoying those red arrows? Wonder if all the people who moved to cash will be tempted by the low prices when it turns around again

[couta1]

So who's having fun out there at the moment? Enjoying those red arrows? Wonder if all the people who moved to cash will be tempted by the low prices when it turns around again

I've had lots of red arrows for a long time now its just they have increased in size of late but its not fun or enjoyment, more patience/perseverance and long suffering. PS- Wouldn't it feel good to have a big cash pile to go on a spending spree right now.

[see weed]

I've had lots of red arrows for a long time now its just they have increased in size of late but its not fun or enjoyment, more patience/perseverance and long suffering. PS- Wouldn't it feel good to have a big cash pile to go on a spending spree right now.

What would you buy?

[couta1]

What would you buy?

I'd buy some or some more of the following Xro/Sml/PGW/MRP and Spk.

[Joshuatree]

50DMA gone under for re the fifth time (1 year chartNZX) and nearly down to 200DMA for the first time. Same on NZX All.

[Baa_Baa]

50DMA gone under for re the fifth time (1 year chartNZX) and nearly down to 200DMA for the first time. Same on NZX All.

Seems like a sucker rally sold into by the smart money? Lots of stocks down hard into the close, even after regathering from the open and into the morning. Will pour over the charts tomorrow.

[nextbigthing]

Looks like something between a 'healthy correction' and a crash is becoming a self fulfilling prophesy.

[Hoop]

Looks like something between a 'healthy correction' and a crash is becoming a self fulfilling prophesy.

Without firing up the old chestnut debate about TA and self-fulfilling prophesy argument...Oops, sorry, too late...Let me clarify..

Most important for everyone to understand before reading this post...The equity market is an leading indicator ..the consumer market is a lagging indicator (trickle down effect)...Therefore realise the psychological behaviour of a consumer who never had it so good..would obviously disbelieve Mr Market when the the Stockmarket turns down ..and the reaction to this disbelief a defense mechanism would be to apportion blame to something they don't like (fear) or understand..the whipping boy is usually TA.
Failure to understand that TA is a messenger..Ok and welcomed when the message is good news but when the messenger brings bad news it is often not wanted and sometimes its met with a hostile reception.. nothing worse seeing a partypooper..eh?

Also what many investors fail to see is the "chicken and the egg" scenario as TA reports the change after every changing event not before it..TA is not a predictor as it can't obtain data that it needs from a future which hasn't yet happened

So,.. can TA have a self fulfilling prophesy effect and when does it occur?.....

Yes..All the time because the sharemarket functions as a Market place which quickly reacts to all news or trading behaviour at the time of happening ..The effect is especially noticed with minute/hourly/day.. nano/mini-cycles where those traders or sophisticated computer stop/loss programs are dominate....

The self fulfilling prophecy effects wane as time marches on, such as, investor reactions causing short/medium term events deemed as healthy bull (or unhealthy bear) market corrections or on a rare occasions flash crashes, are noticeable but the frequency of occurances are less.

Over time there is a point when self fulfilling prophecy (SFP) effect scenarios becomes nonsense and stuff of fairy tales, as in the much longer cycle scenarios such as long term cyclic bull and bear market cycles**........and from nonsense to totally ridiculous when blaming SFP it to secular cycle effect which can be generational (15 + years long).... In these cases the market reacts early to a "predicted" future fundamental decline and when that decline become realty The fundamental effect fails to balance (see Yin Yang below)

Why can't we apportion blame of a crash to SFP?.... Because the "Yin and Yang balancing" effect is far to strong.. (FA counterbalancing the TA effect) kicks in reasonably quickly, extinguishing any possible trigger effect spreading into the long term and taking hold....At some point in "quick time" Mr Market sees fundamental reality over perception..If reality is still good and the perception proved to being a doom mirage then Fundamental effects will counter -balance to restore equity to the system. If realty proves to be the same as the perception..then the fundamental effect won't kick in as equity in the system has already occurred

**A possible exception is the SFP effect near to tops and bottoms of cyclic bull/bear cycles when the longer irrational periods of greed/panic can occur..

Quote...The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.......John Maynard Keynes,

[Beagle]

John Key suggesting that the economy is still in good shape despite the steep collapse in the dairy price...Yeah right, hand me another Tui...oh wait, even Tui are laying off workers.
http://103.14.3.1/news/election-2008...o-cut-24-staff