NZSX50 - Good News!

[axe]

https://milfordasset.com/potential-p...gn-investment/

Wouldn't the impact of a drop in the NZD be lower due the higher % that is owned domestically.

its had an impressive run and probably sensible to take some profits, in my opinion - it could unwind quickly given >50% offshore ownership and potential drop in NZD.... also bull flag setting up on the VIX, next few weeks could be interesting

Attachment 8305

[Hoop]

Apart from interventions, I usually assume a flight of money away from NZ when theNZ$ is in a downtrend ..and..I assume the NZ stockmarket falls when there is less "available" money.

Foreign ownership??..The figures I see are all different..and all over the place. Many current publications recite old data

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."..Mark Twain

......It seems the "glaring" difference revolves around whether the ~18% strategic investors are taken into account or not into account...

Typical media!!!...when an outfit is out to blame rising share prices on rising foreigners ownership they recite the ~46% (or whatever) which excludes the ~18% strategic investors..When the strategic investors are taken into account, foreign ownership is much less.. around ~33%...But these figures I use are an average of differing data I've read and much of that is outdated..Honestly I don't think anyone really knows, so approximates will do.

What does affect the NZX is the degree of "available" money v "non-available" money such as the movements of freed up shareholdings which is the maximum 82% of total share holdings..I say maximum because there many very strict disciplined large individual buy and hold investors out there + the likes of various strict fund vehicles floating around so some of that 82% free float stuff is probably not that "free"...and yeah, probably ~46% of that 82% of total share holding would be foreign money....

The chart below is my crude attempt to show some sort of foreign money flow by assuming demand effects the $ value and assume some of that money flow would effect the NZX stock demand... US$ A$ comparison with NZX50index....Long term correlation is not that great..but the shorter term sudden movements seem to be correlating ....The most obvious event on the chart is the flight of available money away from NZ in 2008 and the corresponding impact on the share market...Less obvious events are:.. something happened around 2010, late 2011 the Winter 2015 and the charting paradox of early 2006.

Attachment 8306

[Edwood]

thanks Axe, although that article is 18 months old so the data its based on is even older.

NZX is a yield play, bond yields are starting to rise offshore - double whammy for NZ50 and NZD when the yield trade unwinds. Will be interesting to see how some of these income funds into high yielding bonds & equities will perform.

The trend is your friend until the bend at the end...

[axe]

Those term deposits rolling over form 5 years ago have to go somewhere. The kiwisaver funds keep trickling in. Our reserve bank has actively stating the dollar is overvalued for some time. The likely hood of further cuts the NZ OCR rate before the years end seems high. I agree that the NZX is a yield play.

Are there some stocks on the ASX looking tasty with our currency looking like its going to peak at about 1:1?

thanks Axe, although that article is 18 months old so the data its based on is even older.

NZX is a yield play, bond yields are starting to rise offshore - double whammy for NZ50 and NZD when the yield trade unwinds. Will be interesting to see how some of these income funds into high yielding bonds & equities will perform.

The trend is your friend until the bend at the end...

[Lewylewylewy]

...Are there some stocks on the ASX looking tasty with our currency looking like its going to peak at about 1:1?

Yup: NZX:ANZ

[Valuegrowth]

One year return around 27%. Not that bad. It has more legs.

Day's Range:	7,196.24 - 7,263.20
52wk Range:	5,573.71 - 7,585.29

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11711758

Index snaps losing streak as NZ Refining and SkyCity climb

After this period of volatility, it should pass 52 week high as well.

[Edwood]

After this period of volatility, it should pass 52 week high as well.

Maybe...the risk is to the downside in my opinion, better to take some cash off the table ready for future opportunities, those 3 red daily candles off the top don't look particularly bullish to me and the shooting star on the weekly looks like a tender timer

[bull....]

broke thru previous low 7200 heading to that 7000 level as mentioned on some thread a while back cant remember which one

[sb9]

I think tonight's jobs report is key catalyst for what happens to interest rate decision by fed as we inch closer to year end.

[Mush]

I think tonight's jobs report is key catalyst for what happens to interest rate decision by fed as we inch closer to year end.

Agreed. We're being set up for a risk off move next week, which could be severe for equities.
GBPUSD move this morning showed me how fragile markets and liquidity can be in times of stress.