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05-09-2019, 07:40 PM
#1911
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06-09-2019, 09:52 AM
#1912
Government debt is low and borrowing is cheap; time to think very big
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...think-very-big
sadly grant robinson is looking more and more all talk and no action. the man who said he would get ppp etc and kiwisaver funds investing in infrastructure , listed vehicles for infrastruction yawn maybe another working group might get things moving along.
one step ahead of the herd
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06-09-2019, 10:46 AM
#1913
ANZ picks OCR to keep falling - three more cuts by May
"We now expect 25 basis point OCR cuts in November, February and May, taking the OCR to 0.25 per cent," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner wrote in research released this morning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12265366
no wonder people are scrambling to get ther income stocks .... why they last
one step ahead of the herd
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08-09-2019, 09:20 AM
#1914
Incredibly silly to have shaved the .50 percentage off the interest rate and even worse imo if they are planning more rate cuts. I thought the policy statement was to keep inflation at a mid point of 2%, which it was at (1.9%) at the last figure released. GDP is tracking along well too so its not a growth concern.
The capital markets are grossly overextended both in stocks and in the property market. In a recession type environment I can see chaos if we keep cutting rates for the sake of keeping the bull market extended. When that bull kicks back, a lot of recent property owners will default with their 500k+ mortgages that they secured on 3.xx interest. It looks like we don't learn our lesson do we.
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08-09-2019, 09:38 AM
#1915
 Originally Posted by value_investor
Incredibly silly to have shaved the .50 percentage off the interest rate and even worse imo if they are planning more rate cuts. I thought the policy statement was to keep inflation at a mid point of 2%, which it was at (1.9%) at the last figure released. GDP is tracking along well too so its not a growth concern.
The capital markets are grossly overextended both in stocks and in the property market. In a recession type environment I can see chaos if we keep cutting rates for the sake of keeping the bull market extended. When that bull kicks back, a lot of recent property owners will default with their 500k+ mortgages that they secured on 3.xx interest. It looks like we don't learn our lesson do we.
The RB is really sitting between a rock and a hard place. Not shaving the interest rate would have meant a higher NZ$ and an additional problem for our exports. Lets face it - if the US and Australia go down, there is no point for NZ to swim against the tide - like it or not.
Doubt as well that interest rates will go up anytime soon - no big economy in the world could take that and so no RB would want to be the first to kill off their economy. But yes, it might be an interesting discussion how this current bull will end. I am however pretty sure that if it does, the woes of the house owners not being able to pay their mortgages might be our smallest problem. Think crashing state pension, private pension schemes, banks and large countries not able to honor their debts anymore (unless the interest rate stays negative). But all this probably belongs onto the black thread ...
Good news is - we are not there yet  ;
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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09-09-2019, 09:33 AM
#1916
Originally Posted by bull....
ANZ picks OCR to keep falling - three more cuts by May"We now expect 25 basis point OCR cuts in November, February and May, taking the OCR to 0.25 per cent," ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner wrote in research released this morning.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12265366
no wonder people are scrambling to get ther income stocks .... why they last
I'd be surprised if it went that low but 0.5% next year is on the cards I reckon.
Some high yielding shares have been overlooked in the rush to get yield. The gentailiers probably have even more room to run as the insatiable overseas and local demand for really safe yield looks likely to remain robust for the foreseeable future. I see more value in the overlooked high yield sector.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-09-2019, 09:41 AM
#1917
Need another poll NZX50 by Christmas 12,000 or 13,000 or 14,000 or whatever
Last poll we had I think about 8,000 was the most popular
I cant do polls - anybody up to it
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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09-09-2019, 10:38 AM
#1918
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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09-09-2019, 10:47 AM
#1919
Speaking of yields, Birmaboy,s (I think it was) dividend yield site still not back up and running???
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11-09-2019, 09:47 AM
#1920
the chinese have launched there assault on the NZ banking market.
China Construction Bank launches a 3.19% mortgage rate for fixed terms on one, two and three years, easily the market leading offers for any home loan
https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-...ms-one-two-and
actually i think the only way other banks will be able to match this is with some form of term deposit rate cut although i see they are raising funds vis bonds at very low 1%- 2% odd so a combo?
Last edited by bull....; 11-09-2019 at 10:18 AM.
one step ahead of the herd
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