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  1. #21
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    wbosher Hmmm, might have trouble explaining the "we're homeless, honey" part to the wife.

    no trouble!! ...after uttering those 3 words there's a great chance she won't be your wife anymore.

    Life is all to do with mathematical probabilities

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    no trouble!! ...after uttering those 3 words there's a great chance she won't be your wife anymore.

    Life is all to do with mathematical probabilities
    I think I should probably go with my original plan.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    wbosher Hmmm, might have trouble explaining the "we're homeless, honey" part to the wife.

    no trouble!! ...after uttering those 3 words there's a great chance she won't be your wife anymore.

    If only life was so simple, a few of us here may even think about the possibilities.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  4. #24
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    I just had a really frightening thought... what if Phaedrus turns out to be right!!
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Placebo View Post
    I just had a really frightening thought... what if Phaedrus turns out to be right!!

    All the TA doubters will have to bow at his knees. He can give up trading and make a living as a fortune teller.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corporate View Post
    Dumbass - can you explain how you come up with your prediction of 'Turd Thursday'?

    here goes in a brief summary

    Since the March low the market has rallied for three months and has gained 43% during this period. I also noted that there would be claims of a new bull market, bullish sentiment would reach bull market levels, and the Nasdaq (+47%) would likely lead. The market is now approaching those targets as the SP 500 hit 958 on friday. With most of the gains already in the books it's time to start looking for signs of an end to this uptrend. When Primary wave B does conclude, a declining Primary wave C will take the market back to the March lows, or even lower. This bear market is not over yet.
    Long term pivots have halted every uptrend of this entire bear market. Should this market get significantly above 961, the next long term pivot is not until SPX 1041. Another characteristic of this bear market is that every uptrend but one ended on a negative RSI divergence on the weekly charts. We now have a negative RSI divergence in place. In fact, there are also negative RSI divergences on every time frame.











    Below friday's close at SP500 940, there are two levels of importance: SP 912 and SP 876. A decline below SP 912 would likely indicate that the uptrend has ended. A decline below SPX 876 would nearly assure it.

    my feeling is we could have a blow off top around 1014- 1040 if this 5th wave extends but certainly top could be very close.
    Last edited by dumbass; 07-06-2009 at 08:55 PM.

  7. #27
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    Default MORE Good News!!!!!!!

    Today the NZSX50 formed a "Golden Cross". This is a Bullish event, formed when a 50 day moving average crosses above a 200 day moving average. Statistically, these are typically followed by a 19.2% pa rise as plotted below. This puts us right on target for our 19/12/2011 date to regain the highs of 2007.
    Nice confirmation eh?


  8. #28
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    Default MORE Good News!

    It is, of course, a little bit of a "stitch-up" Belg, in that the average post-"Golden Cross" rise of 19.2% pa is derived from S&P500 statistics. I don't have data on any NZ indices that go back that far, but the figure here should be roughly comparable.


  9. #29
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    Let's hope that the usual 30 June window dressing isn't giving us a "false " reading here.


  10. #30
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    OMG. I am REALLY watching this one.

    My image of Phaedrus is changing. I have a vision of him as a gap-toothed hag in a darkened tent, black cat at her feet, wearing a bandanna and cloak and poring over her tarot cards and crystal ball, cackling softly...
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  11. #31
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    Default On track - and then some!

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankiwi View Post
    With the NZSX over 3100 today, it must be far less than 19% PA rise needed now.
    Yes, an average of only 15.7% is all it will take now. As time passes, it gets easier and easier.

    I know that things look really good right now and I don't want to crush your ebullient youthful spirits, but you guys do know all about reversion to the mean - don't you?


  12. #32
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    Yes of course. But being investors we also understand what irrational exuberance is all about too.

    I know I don't have to remind you, Phaedrus, that the market is as much (or more so) about human behaviour and emotion as it is about rational business decisions, and people are inclined to leap aboard runaway trains when they see them.

    My question is, what (or who) is driving the train?
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  13. #33
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    LOL at your avatar Placebo....pure class ;-)

  14. #34
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    Default Deja vu.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankiwi View Post
    Are we still in the ballpark Mr P?
    Yes we are - but only just. Play has strayed right over to the sideline and a return to midfield should be expected before too long if the previous game is anything to go by. So far, the resemblance has been...... uncanny.


  15. #35
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    Default Deja vu - all over again.

    To me, that chart was quite intriguing and I am surprised and disappointed at the absence of any feedback. No comments, no scepticism, no approval, no abuse, no surprise, no disagreement, no thanks, no argument, no discussion, no sarcasm, no humour.... nothing. And yet, that post has been read by hundreds of people. I wonder why I bother!

    Maybe the total lack of interest is because this involves an Index rather than a stock.
    Maybe I didn't make my point clearly enough.
    Maybe no-one even noticed the pale yellow lines - let alone appreciated their import.
    Maybe readers here are not interested in the "big picture".

    I feel that this topic is worth one last shot before I give up, so starting again..... "Deja vu" is a feeling that one has witnessed a new situation previously, as though an event has already happened before, in the recent past. Quite by accident I stumbled across the fact that the current market uptrend bears a striking resemblance to that of 5 years ago. I have marked earlier market reversal levels and almost without exception these are repeated in the current market with astonishing precision. Isn't that Spooky, Possums? This even extends to minor points as marked by small arrows and dotted lines. The only exception that I can see is marked by light blue arrows, where the resistance/support didn't make it all the way across. I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke).

    This is all a bit unsettling for me. You see, I have never believed that Support and Resistance levels were very useful concepts when applied to Indices. I utilise Support and Resistance levels extensively with stocks but have never been able to conceive of a rationale that would apply to composite entities such as Indices.

    Now, here are the big questions :-
    (1) Can this extraordinary state of affairs continue?
    (2) Will the market again reverse at 3240?
    (3) Can we then expect a repeat 10% (330 point) correction?
    (4) Will the market again find Support at 2900? (A nice round figure)
    (5) At this stage of my life, can I embrace the Dark Side?
    (6) Does anyone care?

    I suspect the answer may be NO to all.


  16. #36
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    Hi Phaedrus- i'm sorry that no one has replied to your comments. I found the chart very interesting. Please keep contributing - folks are watching your comments.

    Let me ask you a question- did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?

    I personally find charts to be a useful tool for "setting the scene" i.e. does the market appear to be generally over/under priced are we in an uptrend/down trend- together with other factors- what is the state of the global/local economy- how confident are investors feeling etc. My specific buying pattern works within this scene setting by a detailed study of the entity I intend buying into or selling out of.

    What I find hardest to do is to get into the minds of company directors- what are their strategies and are they winning strategies- XRO vs PGW for example.

  17. #37
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    Hi Phaedrus.

    Re question 6, the answer is an emphatic "YES".

    I don't have answers to the other questions although I suspect that history never repeats exactly. Meanwhile, your charts and interpretations continue to enlighten us all. Much appreciated!


  18. #38
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    Random view.

    Is the 3250 point any reflection on the awareness to hedge for inflation, i.e people move away from the NZX looking for commodities. It would be quite interesting to see if the ASX stays flat or even rises through this period.

  19. #39
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    Hey Phaedrus. DO keep up the posts. I find your analysis fascinating and must acknowledge that some of your sayings have become entrenched in my investment strategies.
    I sold up everything on 25 September as I wanted to lock in some very healthy gains and I kind of needed a break from stock-watching. Now of course the question is "when to re-enter?" - - - I am thinking I will be looking out for that dark green line to be hit.
    Thanks again for your erudite posts. Keep up the good work!!!!
    Romer

  20. #40
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    Phaedrus...I know the feeling...lack of responses to my posts on the Bottom or bear rally thread dealing with the same chartology methods.

    Yep P your ? ? ? are close to where my NZX50 bull market correction due point is (3180)...As turning points happen at S&R points., there is a good chance 3250 is it....so caution is needed at these levels.

    EDIT: 3400 is the next H&S point if 3250 doesn't deliver.

    Other Bull market correction due points as mentioned by me on the Bottom or Bear rally? thread
    DOW 10350
    All Ords 4666



    Phaedrus quote..."I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke)...."

    As Charts are a photo-record of investor group behaviour ...any outside effects affecting the behaviour of a group will show up on the charts.

    Sun spots??? don't discount it.... EDIT Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) finds that stock returns tend to
    be higher on sunny days, most likely because sunshine induces optimistic behavior.*

    Much research ( including investment research) has been done on the effects of the moon to animal (including Human) behaviour *

    * Lunar cycles effects on Stock returns University of Michigen Business School Aug 2001 PDF file
    Last edited by Hoop; 09-10-2009 at 02:53 PM.

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