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  1. #2061
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    crashes cause years of stagnation
    nobody got time for dat.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #2062
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    crashes cause years of stagnation
    nobody got time for dat.
    Bulls last 8.something years (on average) whereas bears last something like 1.7yrs.
    May take a while to get back to the last peak but when buying at the bottom who cares?

  3. #2063
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    westpac just downgraded nz gdp
    one step ahead of the herd

  4. #2064
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    SRA (a truely Independent economic commentator) just raised his nz gdp forecast for 2020

    I see unemployment rate fell again
    Last edited by winner69; 05-02-2020 at 03:33 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2065
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    SRA (a truely Independent economic commentator) just raised his nz gdp forecast for 2020

    I see unemployment rate fell again
    you can rely on Rodney being independent coz he's always such a bastard to all the bankonomists
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #2066
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Good that Orr and RBNZ didn’t panic and cut the OCR ....the cheerleaders or a cut will be pissed off
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #2067
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Good that Orr and RBNZ didn’t panic and cut the OCR ....the cheerleaders or a cut will be pissed off
    still plenty of time
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #2068
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Bulls last 8.something years (on average) whereas bears last something like 1.7yrs.
    May take a while to get back to the last peak but when buying at the bottom who cares?
    Dobby ..you must tell me your secret of being able to buy in at the bottom..I've being trying for 45 years .

  9. #2069
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Dobby ..you must tell me your secret of being able to buy in at the bottom..I've being trying for 45 years .
    Context Hoop.
    Was in relation to the thrust that I'd be happy for a real collapse as I have a significant (in relation to what I own now) investment to make.
    It was suggested that a collapse causes years of stagnation - hence the stats on Bulls and Bears.
    When buying after a 'collapse' you are buying at a significant low (maybe not the bottom but low) and it will get back to the last peaks - always has and always will.

  10. #2070
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Context Hoop.
    Was in relation to the thrust that I'd be happy for a real collapse as I have a significant (in relation to what I own now) investment to make.
    It was suggested that a collapse causes years of stagnation - hence the stats on Bulls and Bears.
    When buying after a 'collapse' you are buying at a significant low (maybe not the bottom but low) and it will get back to the last peaks - always has and always will.
    Yes very true Dobby..History agrees too.
    My post was a tongue in cheek humour..probably for most it's was bad humour.

    The interesting thing about the NZX50 is the amount of record highs being achieved and yet this news is being buried with the avalanche of hyped up (dramatic) negative media...hmmm maybe that's what is keeping the Bull market going..negative media suppressing investor exuberance and keeping some of us on the sidelines + the continuing fall of interest rates + moderate organic growth + high property prices giving home owners more spending power (high domestic economy activity)..

    Another interesting thing seen on the chart (not shown) is the uptrend of this 11 year old NZX Bull...The last 4 years has been a constant uphill trend with 2 minor/medium BM corrections of 12% (2016) and 10% (2018)..In the long term scheme of things history says these minor BM corrections would not seem potent enough to keep the Bull Market going , but the Bull Market has defied these odds. To defy the odds even more, the last year has seen the uphill trend steepened and unbelievably has managed against the odds again to sustain this very steep uptrend...

    Totally amazing run and very scary
    Last edited by Hoop; 14-02-2020 at 11:01 AM.

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