NZSX50 - Good News!

[winner69]

@stevebiddle
I had a term deposit that finished yesterday after a 8 month period. I've had almost identical returns from it over the last 8 months as I have had from a managed growth fund of the same value in the past 8 days. We live in such a screwed financial world right now.


What does he expect in a world where set prices are so inflated expected future returns are getting lower. One guy says expected 10;year return on a balanced portfolio (u#) has fallen below 0% pa

[Davexl]

Yes very true Dobby..History agrees too.
My post was a tongue in cheek humour..probably for most it's was bad humour.

The interesting thing about the NZX50 is the amount of record highs being achieved and yet this news is being buried with the avalanche of hyped up (dramatic) negative media...hmmm maybe that's what is keeping the Bull market going..negative media suppressing investor exuberance and keeping some of us on the sidelines + the continuing fall of interest rates + moderate organic growth + high property prices giving home owners more spending power (high domestic economy activity)..

Another interesting thing seen on the chart (not shown) is the uptrend of this 11 year old NZX Bull...The last 4 years has been a constant uphill trend with 2 minor/medium BM corrections of 12% (2016) and 10% (2018)..In the long term scheme of things history says these minor BM corrections would not seem potent enough to keep the Bull Market going , but the Bull Market has defied these odds. To defy the odds even more, the last year has seen the uphill trend steepened and unbelievably has managed against the odds again to sustain this very steep uptrend...

Totally amazing run and very scary

Scary is the right word to use alright. Not sure about the NZX but the ASX200 just retested it's all time high yesterday at 7145 before dropping back under the new Coronavirus results. Looking at the big picture the graph is shaped like a big "M" formation (indicating a market top) with the dropping right hand leg missing.

Last time I saw this was just before the Dot-Com crash. It will be more than interesting to see if there is a short term retest of this high, which if it fails means 'LOOK OUT BELOW' IMHO.

I'm holding 67% cash ATM plus hedging the ASX200 with BBOZ for insurance against my remaining NZ & Aussi shares.

Good luck to NZX holders too, though don't think you can hedge the NZX as easiliy.

[peat]

with everyone holding so much cash the market can run further (up)!

[Davexl]

with everyone holding so much cash the market can run further (up)!

Interesting thought Peat! Lets see if we can push through to new highs and defy the Macro market forces at work...

The way I see it is there are only a few of us so far holding large cash positions and the others may need to too.

[Beagle]

On the subject of the Bull run continuing one of the theories espoused on CNBC by one of their "experts" was that many market participants had run large cash positions in 2019 due to trade war concerns and now they've abated and those fund managers and individual investors have underperformed the index for 2019 they simply don't want the risk of underperforming again in 2020 so holding too much cash now is seen as inappropriate.

I think that's a load of rubbish and smart people who outperformed the index last year and got 40%+ returns on their portfolio are realising from an economic growth perspective we're in a brand new high risk environment and are making the appropriate portfolio adjustments.

[kiwico]

I'm holding 67% cash ATM plus hedging the ASX200 with BBOZ for insurance against my remaining NZ & Aussi shares.

Thanks, I hadn't previously been aware of BBOZ.AX. Current holders would have had a bad last year given it's down 39% over the last 12 months and a whopping 56% against the ASX.

[bull....]

always alert

did you know NZ gdp has been falling since 2015 and likely to get worse becuase of corona virus yet stock prices keep going up ? if you believe in the gdp , stock price relationship over the long term

add the rsi divergences and narrow leadership propelling indexes higher and the bigg gdp hit coming some stocks are well over priced. expecting big hit today

[bull....]

Coronavirus impact: ANZ says three OCR cuts now likely by May

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12313066

obviously seeing a severe downturn in NZ coming then. makes the NZX even more seriously overvalued

[BlackPeter]

Thanks, I hadn't previously been aware of BBOZ.AX. Current holders would have had a bad last year given it's down 39% over the last 12 months and a whopping 56% against the ASX.

BBOZ is not meant to be a long term hold. If shareprices go up, BBOZ goes down. However - it is a great hedge if the stockmarket plunges (as it is now).

Horses for courses ...

[blackcap]

BBOZ is not meant to be a long term hold. If shareprices go up, BBOZ goes down. However - it is a great hedge if the stockmarket plunges (as it is now).

Horses for courses ...

Exactly. If you hold for a year for example and the ASX stays flat then BBOZ would be down quite significantly. It is definitely not for the long term. Short term only.