NZSX50 - Good News!

[winner69]

Sobriety returns??? Only a couple of times in history have we been so drunk as we are now that we are completely blinded about reality. We are currently feeling a bit worse for wear as we have run out of beers and feeling the very beginning of a come down. Usually the Fed would rush out to quickly get us more beers so that we can keep drinking and avoid any hangover. Unfortunately this time inflation means they are going to be forced to leave us dry, so we are in for one hell of a hangover.

Don't fight the Fed.

Prob right there Johnny

When market turns sour all stocks get affected - especially the high flyers who see their elevated PE's halve (or more)

Seen it all before

What price FPH at a PE of 20? and even then some would say expensive

[winner69]

this is quite good - from kiora on another thread

"“Buyers will start accepting overoptimistic accounting adjustments and financial forecasts to justify taking on high levels of debt.”

This is another more subjective one, but ask yourself this; how many times have you seen “EBITDA” or “Adjusted EBITDA” in company accounts recently?"

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ket-s-bottomed

[Hoop]

Re:The Market... We have been here before...many times actually...

My first post for a while and was inspired to post this very basic learner chart.
A young person came to me interested in learning to chart with the objective to create algorithms. We got talking about how bad the Market is and saying it's wise to be sitting on the side lines.. Starting the first lesson I thought the easiest indicators to talk about would be trend lines and Support and Resistance lines (S&R)..
I've haven't been observing the market much lately just remarking on want the media is telling me (which has been negative)..Then a drew this chart.
The question I got asked was..."I thought you said we should buy near support and sell near resistance, why are you so negative?"
The thought ran through my mind that I should had used another chart example..

NZX50 27012022.jpg

[BlackPeter]

Re:The Market... We have been here before...many times actually...

My first post for a while and was inspired to post this very basic learner chart.
A young person came to me interested in learning to chart with the objective to create algorithms. We got talking about how bad the Market is and saying it's wise to be sitting on the side lines.. Starting the first lesson I thought the easiest indicators to talk about would be trend lines and Support and Resistance lines (S&R)..
I've haven't been observing the market much lately just remarking on want the media is telling me (which has been negative)..Then a drew this chart.
The question I got asked was..."I thought you said we should buy near support and sell near resistance, why are you so negative?"
The thought ran through my mind that I should had used another chart example..

NZX50 27012022.jpg

Great question, hoop. Did you find an answer to it as well ?

[Hoop]

Great question, hoop. Did you find an answer to it as well ?

No answer ..I've been investing on and off in shares for nearly 50 years, still have no clue..

I do have many prediction indicators to help me create a probability of an outcome...Hasn't helped much these last 5 years.

[Hoop]

I know the economy is not a Stockmarket primary driver (Inflation is the primary driver)..it is a secondary driver ..I expect the company reporting season to show some strong results so this may help create a floor at the current support level...who knows..

Sediment rules the short term...and with many investors not experienced a bear market before these next few weeks will be interesting...In saying that, the NZX50 has to fall below 10600 (>20% fall) to be fundamentally confirmed a Bear Market Cycle... Between now 12080 and 10600 it is termed a correction...

[BlackPeter]

No answer ..I've been investing on and off in shares for nearly 50 years, still have no clue..

I do have many prediction indicators to help me create a probability of an outcome...Hasn't helped much these last 5 years.

I am sure this puts you into outstandingly good company ; I guess many try with the same success, but only few admit the outcome.

Just one of these human habits - trying to identify patterns when there is due to the complexity of the combination of individually deterministic systems really only white noise ... chaos theory is enlightening.

quareholes.com/blog/2019/07/05/chaos-and-how-to-predict-the-future

[alokdhir]

Just to wanted to write this info to let people know relativeness of inflation / growth / sentiment .

India has the highest running inflation since maybe last 50 years thus they have one of the highest 10 year bond yields ...still they have many companies on bluechip list with P/E in excess of 50 and not all are tech companies ...eg HUL ...FMCG company . If u study its last 20 years charts it will show most regular SP growth in high inflation and high rates environment too .

Indian markets have done pretty well with persistent high inflation and high rates environment but with regularly depreciating currency ...maybe currency picks up the inflation burden thus keeping SP rising in local currency and also markets .

INR is not fully convertible currency but its on current account and partly on capital account ...much freer then RNB .

NZD has started going down and it will realign the economy from consumption to exports ...NZD is fully convertible thus its movement will be fast and more truer then stock markets .

IMHO it will help us understand our economy state more then stock markets and it will be leading indicator of what kind of readjustments needed and it will do it by adjusting its value vs outside world . Everything will become cheaper for outside world when NZD goes down 10-15% ...below 60 cents its real power house of capital flows and economy readjustment from consumerism to exporter

[winner69]

Remember when the NZD went below US$0.40 at the turn of the century ..... that caused some chaos .... and I think NZ was in recession then ..... bought on by 2 consecutive droughts

Bugger - wonder when we will our next big drought .... haven't factored that in yet

[bull....]

how about that nzx opened up around that 12100 support but could not get above it . bad sign the break down is confirmed. timber