Shane Solly has put it very correctly while sharing Guru Listers views ....We went big down in Jan ...now onwards it will be slow grind up with two steps forward and one back at a time . Today is step back time after retracing almost 5% back from 10% drop .
Inflation and rates will be dominant themes for the year but as rising rates reduces valuations similarly rising inflation increases replacement costs too thus making the businesses look cheaper . Rising rates also means economies are running hot ...in such cases stocks are not a bad place to be .
I still think we will end year much higher on index then from here . My pick is close to 14000
Blue chips dragging it down but Truscreen, Paysauce and Blis doing their best to stop the rot
Yes ...finally we closed 1.93% down ...which is huge for NZX ...normally it doesn't move that much ....Fall was mainly due to expensive growth blue chips on low volumes ... Smaller companies like SKL etc held up well .
KFL actually went up while its NAV must have dropped 3% ie almost 5 cents ....power of retail investors or ignorance ...who knows
In this reaction down we need to hold 12100 ...otherwise bigger short term pain ahead .
Results season coincide with rates / inflation and Ukraine crisis ....lets see what prevails finally ...EPS growth or ....
Having done nothing in 2021 ...our market is best placed to manage this rates revaluation .
IMO soon we will decouple from high flyers markets of the world of 2021 like US
NZX50 is showing relative weakness against the SP500. Govt bonds soaring. Good luck in your quest for capital gains this year as there are only a handful of stocks that'll end the year positive in my opinion.
2022 is all about capital preservation and doing your best to get a reasonable income from your portfolio, in my opinion.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
NZX50 is showing relative weakness against the SP500. Govt bonds soaring. Good luck in your quest for capital gains this year as there are only a handful of stocks that'll end the year positive in my opinion.
Lets see how it pans out ...I have an open mind ....but never ever NZX has given two negative years in a row in last 20 years ...which cover many bigger events then just rates trying to be normal ...which maybe 2-2.5 % OCR only
Also seeing such unanimous opinion of experts towards bearishness ...will surely lead to something special
Originally Posted by alokdhir
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