NZSX50 - Good News!

[alokdhir]

I’ve known Hoop for 20 years plus ….he is inherently neither bearish’ or ‘bullish’ ……calls it as he sees it, mainly based on what charts are showing.not his fault things look bearish at the moment, I’m sure he’d prefer they weren’t.

I will expect readers to keep that in mind.

Why I felt so when I wrote what I wrote ....

Last time market took support close to 4200 NZ50C ...then " Bear Market Rally " started as expected by many including me ...though I am not a TA expert at all ...I specifically asked TA experts for actionable info about where it can reach ...what levels to hope for ahead on the way up ....I was told Bear Market rallies normally fail at first resistance ie 4500 ....but this one went on over second resistance too that was 4600 and reached third resistance of 4800 ....there all including me also became negative as it was too bullish for current market situation from FA angle also .

Now he is anticipating in advance the chances of 4200 failing ...ie is bearish expectations ahead of it happening which shows bias ...He didnt show any bullish bias when it was going over 4500 then 4600 to almost reach 4800

But now he predicts good chance of 4200 breaking in advance ....may very well happen but no one knows ....if there was no chance of it crossing 4800 then how come it becomes predictable that it can break 4200 this time ....just need to wait and watch

I am not on either side both ways ...while going up or going down ....just need to wait and watch how it reacts to 4200 levels like we all saw how it reacted to 4800 levels ....without any predetermined bias

[FTG]

Perhaps now is an opportune time to reflect on the the sage quote.... "Seek first to understand, before being understood".

Regardless of whether the Bull or the Bear is ruling the street, "The market" has this remarkable ability of reminding us (when we least expect & want it) of the merits of maintaining some humility.
Start making declarations & decisions based on subjective viewpoints and thinking that YOU have 'got it all sussed', then the time is nigh for you to be abruptly reminded otherwise.

The 'Everything Bubble' was in full swing only just a few months ago. It seems to me that there are still many, many market participants who think that we are just experiencing a short pause in proceedings. In the meantime they attempt to talk themselves (and the market) up! Of course, they could be correct, but ........yeah; nah.

Hoop, thank you for your post by the way. It's refreshing to have a different & well-considered perspective presented; even if a bit confronting for some!

[alokdhir]

Update of the 26th August Chart.
Hindsight:.... Bear Market correction (sucker rally) petered out at the 4800 major resistance thereby keeping its bear status.
...................The correction was a large one and created enough positive sentiment to persuade investors to re-enter the market.

Where to now ? :....When the index broke the 4600 support a target price of 4400 was set..That mean't the 4500 support was under threat. If 4500 support failed (which it did) there is no charted support at 4400 so it seems the 4200 comes into focus (the previous low point).
The NZ50C status is Bear so revisiting 4200 has to be considered as a real possibility. 4200 is a strong support level as it has a historic support point back in September 2018 (yes...the majority of long termers that don't beat the market, their capital is now back to what it was in beginning 2019...As we chartists say famously said on Sharetrader by my Mentor Phaedrus "The market giveth the market takes away".
Although 4200 area is strong there are good odds it may break.. It has to be remembered that the market is in a Bear Market Cycle and the DOW Theory is operating (lower highs lower lows with 3 stages).

Could 4200 be the bottom?
Who knows...but from my perception the odds of 4200 being the bottom is not good, investor sentiment although negative, it's near future is still too rosy (optimistic), (VIX needs to be 40+ for a period of time) they are receiving shocks but there is no major panic yet so the DOW Theory monitors says No...My favourite (nearly 100% reliable) Duck is Copper and it says No (its still trending down) I have about 30 ducks (indicators) and they are not lining up in a row yet so the majority of ducks say no.
I will repost the ducks on Sharetrader shortly.
It seems the NZ50C bear market cycle is in its middle stages and moving more slowly than average.

Attachment 14201

Was not just media ...many experts and analysts and Gurus here were looking for newer bottoms and Bear market continuing ....I am not saying its end of it but still many TA experts becoming positive shud mean something ....anticipating things your way not always happen ...when all or most including TA experts become positive is the most danger time ...not from TA angle from gut feel angle ....

[SailorRob]

The NZX returned 1% per year average through the entire decade of the 90's

Then -0.3% (that's minus) for the entire decade of the 2000's

So basically nothing for 20 years in terms of capital.

Plus dividends.

And then 6.0% from 2010 until now.

0.0% for the last nearly 4 years.


Food for thought.

[Rawz]

Wow that’s interesting thanks for sharing SRob

[BlackPeter]

The NZX returned 1% per year average through the entire decade of the 90's

Then -0.3% (that's minus) for the entire decade of the 2000's

So basically nothing for 20 years in terms of capital.

Plus dividends.

And then 6.0% from 2010 until now.

0.0% for the last nearly 4 years.


Food for thought.

Don't think the numbers are right ... but hey, if that's what you want to believe.

Here is the chart for the last 20 years ... and the (gross) index (i.e. including dividends) went from something like 2000 to something like 12000 in 20 years. That's nearly 10% per year ... but sure, there have been ups and downs.

NZX50.jpg

[Rawz]

interest too BP.. thanks for sharing

i suspect both right lol

[bull....]

The NZX returned 1% per year average through the entire decade of the 90's

Then -0.3% (that's minus) for the entire decade of the 2000's

So basically nothing for 20 years in terms of capital.

Plus dividends.

And then 6.0% from 2010 until now.

0.0% for the last nearly 4 years.


Food for thought.

terrible and anyone who brought in last couple yr's most likely under water

[alokdhir]

terrible and anyone who brought in last couple yr's most likely under water

Stocks more under water or Houses mate ? Or crypto ?? ...Or any one wud have kept money in " No Interest " deposits for last 4 years ...how many had that kind of crystal ball with them ...maybe only "one " our mate Bull ...or shall I say " Bearish Bull " ?? ...lol

[SailorRob]

Don't think the numbers are right ... but hey, if that's what you want to believe.

Here is the chart for the last 20 years ... and the (gross) index (i.e. including dividends) went from something like 2000 to something like 12000 in 20 years. That's nearly 10% per year ... but sure, there have been ups and downs.

NZX50.jpg

Blackpeter doesn't think the numbers are right. Blackpeter does not provide any reasoning behind him not thinking they are correct and then posts a chart of the Gross index which has absolutely zero relevance to the point I was making.

But the people of Sharetrader can make up their own minds, do they want to believe the numbers provided by the late great Brian Gaynor? The man who understood the NZ capital markets going back to before the Brierley index and all it's subsequent reinventions? Or Blackpeter who with the stroke of a keyboard can rule out the numbers I presented as wrong.

Here is the reference material from Brian Gaynor and the numbers I of course double checked (not that I needed to). https://milfordasset.com/insights/ne...or-nzx-indices

But hey Blackpeter, if that's what you want to believe?