NZSX50 - Good News!

[SailorRob]

terrible and anyone who brought in last couple yr's most likely under water

Brought is when you turn up to a BYO party with a box of double brown.

Bought is what you did at the liquor store.

[SailorRob]

interest too BP.. thanks for sharing

i suspect both right lol

Only one of us can write cheques with our mouths that our arses can cash.

[Hoop]

Just a heads up as the NZX has a TA Alert.

These last 5 weeks has seen relative calm (trendless) and a bullish feeling returning as the market tries to move out of its Bear Market cycle status.
The signals of change have appeared. Sorry the chart below is a bit messy

Positive/negative signals are mixed but there is a worry. The signals have appeared with the NZ50C index resting on multiple supports..Multi supports whether respected or broken results in high probability of that future behaviour happening. If respected there is a high probability of the market moving rapidly higher (more volatility) and reconfirms a Bull Market cycle is underway.. Ditto if the supports break but in a downward trend and the Bear lives on.

Either way its important for us "finger on the pulse" investors as it will define the status of the Market. Whether to start investing (accumulation) or remain on the sidelines. We will have a better idea which way in a few days as more data is obtained.

Disc: 5% Equities (Long term kennel investing ), 95% 6 month fixed term deposits.

NZ50C 04052023.jpg

[Fortunecookie]

https://www.morningstar.com.au/insig...-fund-managers

This is a great article. Fund managers operate with mandates and client relationship can be a negative influence.
But as a retail investor you still need to be right most times with your picks.

[Hoop]

No need to write anything on the latest chart as it was explained on my previous post a month ago..It took longer than expected to see a change of behaviour but it has now..and its TA bad news..all supports broken all medium term indicators firing sell signals. All TA eyes should be focused on the next support level at 4530 (-4% down from now) then the psychological 4500.

NZ50C 08062023.jpg

QUOTE=Hoop;1001971]Just a heads up as the NZX has a TA Alert.

These last 5 weeks has seen relative calm (trendless) and a bullish feeling returning as the market tries to move out of its Bear Market cycle status.
The signals of change have appeared. Sorry the chart below is a bit messy

Positive/negative signals are mixed but there is a worry. The signals have appeared with the NZ50C index resting on multiple supports..Multi supports whether respected or broken results in high probability of that future behaviour happening. If respected there is a high probability of the market moving rapidly higher (more volatility) and reconfirms a Bull Market cycle is underway.. Ditto if the supports break but in a downward trend and the Bear lives on.

Either way its important for us "finger on the pulse" investors as it will define the status of the Market. Whether to start investing (accumulation) or remain on the sidelines. We will have a better idea which way in a few days as more data is obtained.

Disc: 5% Equities (Long term kennel investing ), 95% 6 month fixed term deposits.

NZ50C 04052023.jpg

[/QUOTE]

[SailorRob]

No need to write anything on the latest chart as it was explained on my previous post a month ago..It took longer than expected to see a change of behaviour but it has now..and its TA bad news..all supports broken all medium term indicators firing sell signals. All TA eyes should be focused on the next support level at 4530 (-4% down from now) then the psychological 4500.

NZ50C 08062023.jpg

QUOTE=Hoop;1001971]Just a heads up as the NZX has a TA Alert.

These last 5 weeks has seen relative calm (trendless) and a bullish feeling returning as the market tries to move out of its Bear Market cycle status.
The signals of change have appeared. Sorry the chart below is a bit messy

Positive/negative signals are mixed but there is a worry. The signals have appeared with the NZ50C index resting on multiple supports..Multi supports whether respected or broken results in high probability of that future behaviour happening. If respected there is a high probability of the market moving rapidly higher (more volatility) and reconfirms a Bull Market cycle is underway.. Ditto if the supports break but in a downward trend and the Bear lives on.

Either way its important for us "finger on the pulse" investors as it will define the status of the Market. Whether to start investing (accumulation) or remain on the sidelines. We will have a better idea which way in a few days as more data is obtained.

Disc: 5% Equities (Long term kennel investing ), 95% 6 month fixed term deposits.

NZ50C 04052023.jpg

[/QUOTE]

Gone nowhere in 4 years.

[Hoop]

My charts are the top 50 NZ market index that's trending down and TA warns to cease buying into those stocks contained within the NZ50C market at the moment.

These TA charts are medium term (default setting). Using these types of charts are geared to medium term investors.

A successful TA strategy for medium term TA investors is now to cease buying all stocks within that index firing medium term sell signals and sell the stock itself when it starts firing off medium term sell signals...When the index recovers (buy signals) start buying back and new accumulations, but wait for the individual stock to start firing buy signals.. (I try to use this strategy, discipline is not my strong point). The idea of the strategy is to sell the poorer performing stocks thereby lessening the risk of large losses and let the good profitable stocks carry on running.

[Hoop]

Gone nowhere in 4 years.[/QUOTE]

So true

To be fair there were pockets of opportunity especially the Covid bear aftermath opportunity and the recent small 3 month Xmas bull run .

NZ50C 5 yr 08062023.jpg

[BlackPeter]

My charts are the top 50 NZ market index that's trending down and TA warns to cease buying into those stocks contained within the NZ50C market at the moment.

These TA charts are medium term (default setting). Using these types of charts are geared to medium term investors.

A successful TA strategy for medium term TA investors is now to cease buying all stocks within that index firing medium term sell signals and sell the stock itself when it starts firing off medium term sell signals...When the index recovers (buy signals) start buying back and new accumulations, but wait for the individual stock to start firing buy signals.. (I try to use this strategy, discipline is not my strong point). The idea of the strategy is to sell the poorer performing stocks thereby lessening the risk of large losses and let the good profitable stocks carry on running.

Interesting, given that US Markets are on fire. I am wondering whether the drop of the NZX50 might have anything to do with the expected demise of PEB (for some funny reason they are still part of the NZX50), EBOS pain and some other issues quite unrelated to the general market mood?

If that's the case ... I am wondering whether the market signal might be a false flag ... but obviously - it always could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy?

What I am saying is - if everybody stops buying, than guess what is going to happen?

[winner69]

That's a pretty sad looking chart Hoop