Interesting, given that US Markets are on fire. I am wondering whether the drop of the NZX50 might have anything to do with the expected demise of PEB (for some funny reason they are still part of the NZX50), EBOS pain and some other issues quite unrelated to the general market mood?
If that's the case ... I am wondering whether the market signal might be a false flag ... but obviously - it always could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy?
What I am saying is - if everybody stops buying, than guess what is going to happen?
"Interesting, given that US Markets are on fire". Hmmm on fire is a bit of a stretch...I would say performing better. It hasn't taken much of a move to cause a reversal to a Bull Market Cycle. Yes there's been some love for the "small"companies recently but still only 58.34% of the NYSE stocks are Bulls the rest are still Bears. Mind you a couple of weeks ago there were 42% Bulls so the sudden rise is encouraging which has caught the attention of the Trading Analysts and hyped up by the various medias. If you look at the chart below there is always sudden rises and falls during the period of bull and bear cycle corrections and Market cycle reversals. The question at the moment..Is Wall St cyclic reversal back to a Bull Market cycle real?
"...wondering whether the drop of the NZX50 might have anything to do with the expected demise of PEB (for some funny reason they are still part of the NZX50), EBOS pain and some other issues quite unrelated to the general market mood?" Could be any number of things including stuff not yet on the radar..Me being a Pleb I will probably be the last to know..That's why I use TA.
"I am wondering whether the market signal might be a false flag" ...Maybe, TAers call this behaviour either a bull trap or a bear trap. "it always could turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy?"..Yes that's possible...Humans (especially investors) have this misconception that we are a species better than the animals, unfortunately we are hot-wired at birth with animal (survival) instincts..so we as humans can stampede just as good as the buffalos if not better..I think we just as good as doing the Lemming thing too . Unfortunately TA not nature gets the blame..
"What I am saying is - if everybody stops buying, than guess what is going to happen?" Stock exchanges close down, Share Brokers go extinct and all investors move on from Equities towards the next best investment... Just Kidding
Yeah, hopefully it is near the bottom (around 4550).
Now ..what were you saying about the Market under performing for the next 10 years.... something about a correlation between excess debt and economic growth?
Yeah, hopefully it is near the bottom (around 4550).
Now ..what were you saying about the Market under performing for the next 10 years.... something about a correlation between excess debt and economic growth?
ANZ Roy Morgan consumer Confidence Poll asks respondents how they feel about the next 5 years.
How that’s been tracking below….there seems to be long term sense of unease about nz’s future……and it’s not improving
Can’t but help feel that this ‘unease’ over time has and will continue to impact ‘investor confidence’ as well with the inevitable under performance of the nz market.
But then again like in 2010 (post GFC) everybody will get super excited and be happy as again …maybe change in govt will be catalyst
Last edited by winner69; 11-06-2023 at 08:26 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
In my view, it's going to be consolidation. After one of the longest bull markets for many assets, next scenario is
readjustment of asset prices. Out of favour stocks are next winners. In addition, going forward value investors and long term investors can create demand for strong companies on price weakness and market sell-off.
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 11-06-2023 at 12:44 PM.
ANZ Roy Morgan consumer Confidence Poll asks respondents how they feel about the next 5 years.
How that’s been tracking below….there seems to be long term sense of unease about nz’s future……and it’s not improving
Can’t but help feel that this ‘unease’ over time has and will continue to impact ‘investor confidence’ as well with the inevitable under performance of the nz market.
But then again like in 2010 (post GFC) everybody will get super excited and be happy as again …maybe change in govt will be catalyst
If you draw a trend line from '03 to '17, it's a relatively shallow decline, but a trend line from '17 to-date is a markedly steeper down-trend. So I think you're probably right, a change in government might reverse the past 5 year trend, or at least revert to the longer term trend.
The NZ Equities bottomed out (at 4200/4300 area) with the bullish double bottom pattern last year (July & October) and there is a feeling we are now in a very slow recovery mode, but the recent drop is a worry and has to stop and bounce upward off the important 4530 ish support area. Yesterday the NZ50C rose up 0.3% off its lowest point of 4540 the day before.
Wall St has just entered a new Bull Market Cycle (hopefully it stays that way). That adds some hope that the NZ50C 4530 support will hold and will soon give us a buying opportunity.
"Meal kit company My Food Bag sold shares at $1.85 in 2021 and is now trading at 18c, biotech company Blis Technologies sold shares at 10c in 2000 and is now trading at 2.4c, glass manufacturer Metro Performance Glass sold shares for $1.70 in 2014 and is now trading at 13.2c, and health and wellness company Me Today sold shares at 9.5c in 2020 is now trading at just 0.8c."
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
. Unfortunately TA not nature gets the blame.
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