NZSX50 - Good News!

[winner69]

Hoop - the NZX has been quite resilient over the last year or so -- hovering wrond the 3300 mark

In April 2010 it was 3307. Since then it has gone to 10% below that mark and then went to 8% above the 3300 mark. Since giving that 8% up (plus a bit more for a few days in August) it has essentially been 3300 plus or minus a couple of percent (from 3300 ranging from-1.5% / + 2.9%) since then

Seeing whats going on in the world thats a pretty stable state for nearly 3 months. Wouldn't say trendless but steady at around the 3300 mark

Prob reflects the boring nature of the NZ market .... not much to get that excited about

That

2 months on from that post and NZX50 not quite back to 3300

So all we can say NZX50 rangebound at 3300 +/- a few percent .... maybe this time it will go 3300 +3% and then more .... but hope is not a strategy I am told

[Hoop]

2 months on from that post and NZX50 not quite back to 3300

So all we can say NZX50 rangebound at 3300 +/- a few percent .... maybe this time it will go 3300 +3% and then more .... but hope is not a strategy I am told

Exactly true...NZX50 is still range bound between 3200 and 3350 and hope is a delusional emotion .

However Mr Market is feeling a little better at the moment and has gotten out of his sick bed.

I must admit..one thing about trendlines I don't like is.. the index can break a down trend line only to keep following it down from the top side...confirmation from other indicators does build a degree of hope that this time the index may retest the broken trend line then repell away upwards towards the 3350 ..eh

[winner69]

Exactly true...NZX50 is still range bound between 3200 and 3350 and hope is a delusional emotion .

However Mr Market is feeling a little better at the moment and has gotten out of his sick bed.

I must admit..one thing about trendlines I don't like is.. the index can break a down trend line only to keep following it down from the top side...confirmation from other indicators does build a degree of hope that this time the index may retest the broken trend line then repell away upwards towards the 3350 ..eh

HOOP - even you would have to say today was a bummer day for the NZX50 .... all the way down to 3268 whenit was looking so promising eh

[Hoop]

HOOP - even you would have to say today was a bummer day for the NZX50 .... all the way down to 3268 whenit was looking so promising eh

Yep...it's days like today I wished I wrote today's post tomorrow.

Down 27 to 3268 (0.8%) the only 2 good things about today are....
1.. that it is still on the topside of that broken primary down trend line...just!!
That was one very fast retest...

The other good thing is, my trigger finger developed rigour mortis.

We will see what tomorrow brings

[winner69]

Hoop .... over 3300 again .... up up and away this time .... I feel it my bones

[winner69]

Hoop .... over 3300 again .... up up and away this time .... I feel it my bones

Hoop ..... getting close to the top of trading range again eh


This time it will break out ..... then 3400 ..... then 3500 .... and even higher following the ASX200 up to 5000 plus by Xmas

[Hoop]

Hoop .... over 3300 again .... up up and away this time .... I feel it my bones

Hoop ..... getting close to the top of trading range again eh


This time it will break out ..... then 3400 ..... then 3500 .... and even higher following the ASX200 up to 5000 plus by Xmas

Post # 272 24th January 2012

Back to the NZ50

The NZX50 seems to follow the good news as well with a primary breakout and hopefully this will be confirmed with the MA200 nearby and the testing of the 3350 resistance level.......

Primary breakout is now confirmed with the MA200...all good news NZX50 bull market cycle lives on.

Winner that bone ailment you have ...I seem to have it too

[drillfix]

You guys seem to put a lot of faith in to oblique breakouts, which of course, do show the rise and move out of the downward channel.

Saying that, to me, unless that break is combined with the horizontal break of resistance upward, I myself just see this as a potential break and still in the trading range, or range bound (sideways even).


However, looking at those lower indicators sure do offer good confidence in such a move.

No doubt the test will come soon enough~!

[Hoop]

You guys seem to put a lot of faith in to oblique breakouts, which of course, do show the rise and move out of the downward channel.

Saying that, to me, unless that break is combined with the horizontal break of resistance upward, I myself just see this as a potential break and still in the trading range, or range bound (sideways even).


However, looking at those lower indicators sure do offer good confidence in such a move.

No doubt the test will come soon enough~!

Winner ..Drilly has rained on our party.


Yes Drilly unfornately your comments are very valid....When it comes to formations falling wedges are classed as nearly a total bitch to deal with..their continuations after a breakout are rather unpredictable and can be sudden.

Yes..there is a lot going against the NZX50 falling wedge breakout. The biggest bogey of them all is the 3350 resistance line and therefore the 70% chance of it meeting it's target must be reduced....As my investment strategy deals with 70+% chances, I'm only tempted to load up quickly with NZ stocks but haven't. Many NZX50 buy signals have fired making this falling wedge breakout much more acceptable to trade on but overall caution remains so I will bend my discipline and dribble accumulate on selected rising stocks...the extra factor is the dividend season also tempts me in.
Bulkowski's view on falling wedges is very negative

Below is a closer look at the NZX50 falling wedge.

[winner69]

Whats happening Hoop ..... going down faster than it went up ..... and now below 3300 again