NZSX50 - Good News!

[troyvdh]

...looking at the 3 year NZ chart....looks like something akin to 'irrational exuberance"..... perhaps...

[winner69]

...looking at the 3 year NZ chart....looks like something akin to 'irrational exuberance"..... perhaps...

No way Troy .... finally punters are realising how cheap most NZX stocks are ... as the guru man Stubbs says about FPA takeover 'its a steal' ..... the whole market 'is a steal' eh

Up up and away .... the 3800 mark today .... then 4000 .... maybe 5000 by xmas .... but that a bit exuberant maybe

[Stranger_Danger]

Maybe. But on the other hand, it is all feeling a little easy at present, which doesn't always bode well.

I just have this inkling I'm going to be swapping AU/NZ stocks for US cash in about 3 months. As nuts as that probably sounds today, esp given Bernanke's latest dose of madness.

[winner69]

Good one sparks ..... US markets to go up another 2000 to 3000 .... NZX well over 4000 by Xmas then

Up up and away .... NZX 'its a steal'

[Stranger_Danger]

Oh dear. A two data points certainty.

[ratkin]

Winner is bullish!!!

Now that does make me nervous , especially with october coming up

Seriously though , last stocks i bought for my long term portfolio were in february (Sumerset,Ebos, Comvita)
I wont be buying any more until i see a decent correction.
I did very well from the financial crisis from buying at a time when Mr P called me a "brave idiot"

Happy to hold , but not happy to buy

And to Stranger danger , i am still holding fletcher building . One year delay means nothing imo , Christchurch will carry the company for yeaars to come

[winner69]

Winner is bullish!!!

Now that does make me nervous , especially with october coming up

........

I wont be buying any more until i see a decent correction.

Follow the sentiment is my mantra ratkin .....otherwise I'd believe this sort of stuff from Husman -

There are few times in history when the S&P 500 has been within 1% or less of its upper Bollinger band (two standard deviations above the 20-period moving average) on daily, weekly and monthly resolutions; coupled with a Shiller P/E in excess of 18 – the present multiple is actually 22.3; coupled with advisory bullishness above 47% and bearishness below 27% - the actual figures are 51% and 24.5% respectively; with the S&P 500 at a 4-year high and more than 8% above its 52-week moving average; and coupled, for good measure, with decelerating market internals, so that the advance-decline line at least deteriorated relative to its 13-week moving average compared with 6-months prior, or actually broke that average during the preceding month. This set of conditions is observationally equivalent to a variety of other extreme syndromes of overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions that we've reported over time. Once that syndrome becomes extreme - as it has here - and you get any sort of meaningful "divergence" (rising interest rates, deteriorating internals, etc), the result is a virtual Who's Who of awful times to invest.

Consider the chronicle of these instances in recent decades: August and December 1972, shortly before a bull market peak that would see the S&P 500 lose half of its value over the next two years; August 1987, just before the market lost a third of its value over the next 20 weeks; April and July 1998, which would see the market lose 20% within a few months; a minor instance in July 1999 which would see the market lose just over 10% over the next 12 weeks, and following a recovery, another instance in March 2000 that would be followed by a collapse of more than 50% into 2002; April and July 2007, which would be followed by a collapse of more than 50% in the S&P 500, and today.
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc120910.htm


Up up and away .....for a limitless longer anyway

[Hoop]

NZSX has been one of the very few Global Markets to preserve its Bull market cycle since the 2007-2009 Global Bear.

A rough guide to cyclic cycles ...Bull lasts 4 years....bear lasts between 1 to 3 years
Using that rough guide the Cyclic Bull will be 4 years old in March 2013....therefore this Bull is mature and approaching old age and could die at any time.

Compared to the previous bull if I was a farmer this poor performing bull would've been to the knackers yard by now.....

Hmmm... older and bolder????...there's still time (just!!) to redeem yourself my Old 4 Legged "Friend"...past history often shows a rapid accelerated rise to exuberance in the last stage (3) of the Bull cycle...so get off your lazy arse it's time to giddy up and go.

4000 by Xmas??? or will this stupid bull be fertilizer dust by then??

Wrote this above post on 5th July 2012 post#335..Since then the old fella has got of its arse and giddied up and goed


There was a scare in June !! but it bounced back up off its support FAIL in early July.
Why are some investors bullish??? the chart tells the story and while it stays pointing upwards I stay bullish...Yes its a mature bull market and this could be its last phase characterised by an exuberant burst upwards....however this bull could end soon or it could last for many months yet with another correction or two involved ....
Is another bull market correction due ? It seems to happen at the top of the SD channel so far the NZX50 has only had a small amount of time in the upper half of the channel but it is close to the top and is going to test the 3810 resistance... this is one place to watch to see signs for a correction + using TA indicators.

Bury your emotions.... Buy in up trends (average up) sell on trend changes / TA sell signals (none apparent yet)

[Hoop]

Hi Guys.

I think we are in stage 2 because the Hoop effect++ is missing.....

+++ I have never made much capital gain in Stage 3. I have made capital losses a few times during this media party/boom bull market stage though.

The Average Age of a cyclic Bull's life is 4 years but it varies...It is possible this NZX50 bull may live a longer than 4 years (maybe 5 or 6 years) due to suspended animation periods and the lack of distance upwards off the bottom so far this last 3.5 years (65%)...

Interesting point is the sudden surge upwards (breakout) past the Fib 61.8% at 3600 (Instinctive behaviour to buy)

Serious note the DOW Theory behavioural area also suggests Stage 2.
Note stages are not time related ..Stage 3 could be mild/subdued and very quick or slow or get stuck in a low activity Stage 2 (slow rise up)... who knows? Belgs crystal ball?? or his mum

I have butchered this article to show my point.. apologies to stockcharts

[Hoop]

Hoop - those taxi drivers again eh? It's a wonderful indicator...

Ohhhhh yes!!!!!!!!!!!...If you want to know where the market is going to go ask the little people....Tea ladies or inversely the taxi drivers/barpeople etc...

Why waste your money with a Stock Brokers / Financiers reports when there is so much free advisory talent around...eh?