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  1. #31
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    Default On track - and then some!

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankiwi View Post
    With the NZSX over 3100 today, it must be far less than 19% PA rise needed now.
    Yes, an average of only 15.7% is all it will take now. As time passes, it gets easier and easier.

    I know that things look really good right now and I don't want to crush your ebullient youthful spirits, but you guys do know all about reversion to the mean - don't you?


  2. #32
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    Yes of course. But being investors we also understand what irrational exuberance is all about too.

    I know I don't have to remind you, Phaedrus, that the market is as much (or more so) about human behaviour and emotion as it is about rational business decisions, and people are inclined to leap aboard runaway trains when they see them.

    My question is, what (or who) is driving the train?
    Marriage isn't a word. It's a sentence

  3. #33
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    LOL at your avatar Placebo....pure class ;-)

  4. #34
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    Default Deja vu.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankiwi View Post
    Are we still in the ballpark Mr P?
    Yes we are - but only just. Play has strayed right over to the sideline and a return to midfield should be expected before too long if the previous game is anything to go by. So far, the resemblance has been...... uncanny.


  5. #35
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    Default Deja vu - all over again.

    To me, that chart was quite intriguing and I am surprised and disappointed at the absence of any feedback. No comments, no scepticism, no approval, no abuse, no surprise, no disagreement, no thanks, no argument, no discussion, no sarcasm, no humour.... nothing. And yet, that post has been read by hundreds of people. I wonder why I bother!

    Maybe the total lack of interest is because this involves an Index rather than a stock.
    Maybe I didn't make my point clearly enough.
    Maybe no-one even noticed the pale yellow lines - let alone appreciated their import.
    Maybe readers here are not interested in the "big picture".

    I feel that this topic is worth one last shot before I give up, so starting again..... "Deja vu" is a feeling that one has witnessed a new situation previously, as though an event has already happened before, in the recent past. Quite by accident I stumbled across the fact that the current market uptrend bears a striking resemblance to that of 5 years ago. I have marked earlier market reversal levels and almost without exception these are repeated in the current market with astonishing precision. Isn't that Spooky, Possums? This even extends to minor points as marked by small arrows and dotted lines. The only exception that I can see is marked by light blue arrows, where the resistance/support didn't make it all the way across. I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke).

    This is all a bit unsettling for me. You see, I have never believed that Support and Resistance levels were very useful concepts when applied to Indices. I utilise Support and Resistance levels extensively with stocks but have never been able to conceive of a rationale that would apply to composite entities such as Indices.

    Now, here are the big questions :-
    (1) Can this extraordinary state of affairs continue?
    (2) Will the market again reverse at 3240?
    (3) Can we then expect a repeat 10% (330 point) correction?
    (4) Will the market again find Support at 2900? (A nice round figure)
    (5) At this stage of my life, can I embrace the Dark Side?
    (6) Does anyone care?

    I suspect the answer may be NO to all.


  6. #36
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    Wink

    Hi Phaedrus- i'm sorry that no one has replied to your comments. I found the chart very interesting. Please keep contributing - folks are watching your comments.

    Let me ask you a question- did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?

    I personally find charts to be a useful tool for "setting the scene" i.e. does the market appear to be generally over/under priced are we in an uptrend/down trend- together with other factors- what is the state of the global/local economy- how confident are investors feeling etc. My specific buying pattern works within this scene setting by a detailed study of the entity I intend buying into or selling out of.

    What I find hardest to do is to get into the minds of company directors- what are their strategies and are they winning strategies- XRO vs PGW for example.

  7. #37
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    Hi Phaedrus.

    Re question 6, the answer is an emphatic "YES".

    I don't have answers to the other questions although I suspect that history never repeats exactly. Meanwhile, your charts and interpretations continue to enlighten us all. Much appreciated!


  8. #38
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    Random view.

    Is the 3250 point any reflection on the awareness to hedge for inflation, i.e people move away from the NZX looking for commodities. It would be quite interesting to see if the ASX stays flat or even rises through this period.

  9. #39
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    Hey Phaedrus. DO keep up the posts. I find your analysis fascinating and must acknowledge that some of your sayings have become entrenched in my investment strategies.
    I sold up everything on 25 September as I wanted to lock in some very healthy gains and I kind of needed a break from stock-watching. Now of course the question is "when to re-enter?" - - - I am thinking I will be looking out for that dark green line to be hit.
    Thanks again for your erudite posts. Keep up the good work!!!!
    Romer

  10. #40
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    Phaedrus...I know the feeling...lack of responses to my posts on the Bottom or bear rally thread dealing with the same chartology methods.

    Yep P your ? ? ? are close to where my NZX50 bull market correction due point is (3180)...As turning points happen at S&R points., there is a good chance 3250 is it....so caution is needed at these levels.

    EDIT: 3400 is the next H&S point if 3250 doesn't deliver.

    Other Bull market correction due points as mentioned by me on the Bottom or Bear rally? thread
    DOW 10350
    All Ords 4666



    Phaedrus quote..."I attribute this to unusual sunspot activity at around that time. (Joke)...."

    As Charts are a photo-record of investor group behaviour ...any outside effects affecting the behaviour of a group will show up on the charts.

    Sun spots??? don't discount it.... EDIT Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) finds that stock returns tend to
    be higher on sunny days, most likely because sunshine induces optimistic behavior.*

    Much research ( including investment research) has been done on the effects of the moon to animal (including Human) behaviour *

    * Lunar cycles effects on Stock returns University of Michigen Business School Aug 2001 PDF file
    Last edited by Hoop; 09-10-2009 at 02:53 PM.

  11. #41
    Member sharer's Avatar
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    As Yankiwi mentioned: "... (yes I've clicked on the "add to reputation" icon on so many of your posts, it wont let me add to yours anymore) "
    Me too! There's obviously some sort of conspiracy afoot. After all, if too many of us acheive enlightenment from studying alongside Phaedrus the whole capitalist system could collapse (again).
    Seriously Phaedrus, the first thing i do at logon is scan all the thread folders to see if you have another post up for contemplation. If so, i contemplate for a bit before moving over to login to DB trading. Like so many of the other shy newbies young & old here who are benefiting from your contributions, the only reason for a lack of discussion in reply is simple ignorance (in my case) & not wanting to add too much to the background noise. Should add straight away how much i appreciate also those like Hoop just now who do have the ability to contribute on the topic.
    Meanwhile my largely instinctual approach has made me a bit risk averse lately, & more inclined to cash in a few chips here & there. When i see a new Phaedrus chart with all those red queries all over the index ahead, it does make me nervous!

  12. #42
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    Hi Phaedrus
    Thanks again for your posts
    This "joke" of predicting the NZX50 has come to be very interesting.
    Re support and ressitance on indicies, would you normally look back 4-5 years on a stock and if not is the long term index S & R's then going to help determine whether you are going to enter a trade

    Thoughts anyone

  13. #43
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    I think a bull market correction is coming... 10% looks about right.
    as does 3240 target back to 2,900

    but then again, it might be a bit early in the bull market for a 10% correction, yuo might only get 5%
    “If you're worried about falling off the bike, you’d never get on.”

  14. #44
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    Sir P,
    no to 5, yes to 6, and i have to 'spread some reputation around' before i add more to yours. scamper's university papers means that eyes are mostly off the ball, so i haven't taken sensible precautions or grabbed opportunities this year -- all a bit sad really...
    Anyway, thanks for the posts. cheers from scamper.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walfootrot View Post
    Hi Phaedrus - did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 (?) in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?
    Wal, the philosophy behind my Index monitoring systems was exhaustively discussed here. My approach has been tuned and refined over the years, but in essence it remains the same as explained in that old post from 2007. There is further explanation in post #8 and others on that same thread. Did I keep to my system? Yes.

    The NZSX50 peaked at 4333 and it had fallen to 4071 before most of my exit indicators were triggered. Similarly, the market bottomed at 2418 in March, but had risen to around 2600 by the time most of my "re-enter the market" indicators had fired. I did indulge in a few short-term trades on the way down, though, with mixed success. Many of my old charts have been bumped from the system but I am able to re-post any that are of particular interest to anybody. Just ask.

    Yankiwi, if it hadn't been for your query I would never have stumbled across this interesting situation. I am sorry if you felt targeted by my rant - believe me that was never my intention and I apologise whole-heartedly if I have offended you in any way at all. My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!

    Thanks for the support, people. I appreciate it.

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