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  1. #41
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    As Yankiwi mentioned: "... (yes I've clicked on the "add to reputation" icon on so many of your posts, it wont let me add to yours anymore) "
    Me too! There's obviously some sort of conspiracy afoot. After all, if too many of us acheive enlightenment from studying alongside Phaedrus the whole capitalist system could collapse (again).
    Seriously Phaedrus, the first thing i do at logon is scan all the thread folders to see if you have another post up for contemplation. If so, i contemplate for a bit before moving over to login to DB trading. Like so many of the other shy newbies young & old here who are benefiting from your contributions, the only reason for a lack of discussion in reply is simple ignorance (in my case) & not wanting to add too much to the background noise. Should add straight away how much i appreciate also those like Hoop just now who do have the ability to contribute on the topic.
    Meanwhile my largely instinctual approach has made me a bit risk averse lately, & more inclined to cash in a few chips here & there. When i see a new Phaedrus chart with all those red queries all over the index ahead, it does make me nervous!

  2. #42
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    Hi Phaedrus
    Thanks again for your posts
    This "joke" of predicting the NZX50 has come to be very interesting.
    Re support and ressitance on indicies, would you normally look back 4-5 years on a stock and if not is the long term index S & R's then going to help determine whether you are going to enter a trade

    Thoughts anyone

  3. #43
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    I think a bull market correction is coming... 10% looks about right.
    as does 3240 target back to 2,900

    but then again, it might be a bit early in the bull market for a 10% correction, yuo might only get 5%
    “If you're worried about falling off the bike, you’d never get on.”

  4. #44
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    Sir P,
    no to 5, yes to 6, and i have to 'spread some reputation around' before i add more to yours. scamper's university papers means that eyes are mostly off the ball, so i haven't taken sensible precautions or grabbed opportunities this year -- all a bit sad really...
    Anyway, thanks for the posts. cheers from scamper.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walfootrot View Post
    Hi Phaedrus - did you sell your stocks at the market peak of 4800 (?) in 2007 and buy back again in March 2009 at 2450? In other word does tracking of indices determine your investment strategy totally or are their other factors you take into account?
    Wal, the philosophy behind my Index monitoring systems was exhaustively discussed here. My approach has been tuned and refined over the years, but in essence it remains the same as explained in that old post from 2007. There is further explanation in post #8 and others on that same thread. Did I keep to my system? Yes.

    The NZSX50 peaked at 4333 and it had fallen to 4071 before most of my exit indicators were triggered. Similarly, the market bottomed at 2418 in March, but had risen to around 2600 by the time most of my "re-enter the market" indicators had fired. I did indulge in a few short-term trades on the way down, though, with mixed success. Many of my old charts have been bumped from the system but I am able to re-post any that are of particular interest to anybody. Just ask.

    Yankiwi, if it hadn't been for your query I would never have stumbled across this interesting situation. I am sorry if you felt targeted by my rant - believe me that was never my intention and I apologise whole-heartedly if I have offended you in any way at all. My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!

    Thanks for the support, people. I appreciate it.

  6. #46
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    Another interesting question (for me anyway )....
    Q....How strong are these R&S lines,...some just don't work???
    A....When I have doubts about R&S especially in 2008 crash times when a resistance line seemed like it never existed...I compared these R&S lines with other R&S systems. One of the best is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Charting System. This system is a better measure of Resistance and Support as it is multidimensional... not just a simple drawn 2 D line on a chart that most of us use here on ST.

    The NZX50 chart below may seem complex but when looking at it for the first time remember to keep it simple by remembering 2 things that are the topic of this Sharetrader (ST) thread
    1... looking for powerful R&S lines using Ichi as a reference
    2... Looking for a future change in a trend (e.g when could a possible correction occur).

    OK ...for our two goals and keeping it ultra-simple we will ignore several bits of information on the chart including the green and the single red line...no worries.
    Also remember the inside of the kumo (cloud) is resistance and/or support

    Looking for powerful R&S lines..the most obvious one is the 2750 in July 2009 ..see how the index bounces up off the bottom of the Kumo (shaded green). when we see the bounce + there was a similar action at this 2750 at the beginning of 2009 we know that R&S 2750 line is huge.
    Another R&S level which is of interest is the 3378 line which is not far away now....it was powerful back in Aug/Sept 2008. Is it powerful now? we will know when it happens. 3600 could be another to watch in the future. Also note that new R&S levels can be formed.

    When will there be a possible trend change? Notice how the Kumo extends past today into November 2009. The Kumo expands and contracts with volatility of the index. The thicker the kumo the greater the Resistance ad Support it provides..when the Kumo becomes very thin to the point that it may twist ( e.g red to green...green to red) at this point the Kumo (or lack of) offers the least support and could result in a trend change....downwards in this case.

    See from the chart when the index is above the kumo it falls when the Kumo is thin

    At this moment notice how the index is not far above the Kumo..also note that within a month that kumo will be not be as thick and with the index a lot nearer the kumo this time increases the chance that any selling pressure maybe enough to cause a downtrend change pulling the index down back into the Kumo to test its weak thin bottom support...If the index falls below the Kumo ..the kumo becomes a resistance object.


    Using Ichimoku in conjunction with Phaedrus chart using R&S lines the 2 different principles confirm with each other that this is a time that an investor should be cautious and alert.


    Last edited by Hoop; 10-10-2009 at 01:59 AM. Reason: oops forgot chart

  7. #47
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    Red face That would be me

    Quote Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
    My beef was with the lousy 250:1 reader/contributor ratio. There are too many overly shy lurkers here I reckon!
    Lurker delurking here.

    I read the forums daily, and I find your posts informative and useful in my decision making.

    Having said that, I like being environmentally conscious about what I write. Too many pixels are wasted on useless comments ^_^

    I try to post when I have something to say...which is rarely.

    If the NZX50 hits 4300 on 19 Dec 2011 I'll send you a Xmas present and a few sacrificial goats your way.

  8. #48
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    Nzx is still one of the worst performers on a return basis over the last 6 months does this mean we have a better chance of better returns going ahead to catch up with the rest or does this mean we will plunge quicker when the rest do?

  9. #49
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
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    Thumbs up

    Pheadras,your posts are brilliant and have taught me heaps.

    Over the last few years I have learned through you,regarding TA, to 'Keep It Simple' which is what I adhere to now,you are a great teacher with too much bloody time on his hands haha.
    But seriously,you put a lot of time and effort into demonstrating the principles that Probably keep you profitable,ha.
    The fact that so many people view your posts,must be uplifting even if they don't comment.

  10. #50
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
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    Hoop,perhaps you could explain what all the colour coded lines are on your chart,I am presuming the red thin line is the nzx50? Much abliged.

  11. #51
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    Hoop, when (if!) you do this, it would be good to start your chart at the beginning of 2004. Then we can directly compare the Ichimoku plots of this uptrend with those of the last one.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by kizame View Post
    Hoop,perhaps you could explain what all the colour coded lines are on your chart,I am presuming the red thin line is the nzx50? Much abliged.
    Hi Kizame
    nah..the red thin line is the kijun-sen
    ......the blue line is the tenkan-sen
    these are momentum indicators...basically speaking a buy signal is produced when the tenkan-sen line crosses over above the Kijun-sen line a especially strong buy signal if the cross happens above the kumo (cloud) and vice versa.

    The kumo (shaded area) boundary lines called Senkou Span A (red) and Senkou Span B (green)

    Note that the Kumo extends into November 2009. At the top of the chart you will see (9, 26, 52) these figures are the periods used in the calculations. The kumo extend 26 periods into the future. Each day is a period except Sunday..so 6 periods = 1 week ..26 periods = 4weeks 2 days.

    ......the individual green line is the chikou span. This is used as an trend indicator. with reference to the NZX50 chart the index trend is deemed upward when the chikou span is located above the closing price and vice versa. You watch the chikou span to cross below the closing figure as a signal that the index trend is weakening.

    The NZX50 index line is the bolder red/black line (black rising / red falling).
    Yeah I know rather hard to distinguish those lines ..maybe Stockchart.com may do something about it in the future.

    Kizame my Ichimoku knowledge is limited to what i use it for ..so very basic.
    I suggest if you are interested to increase your knowledge further about this "Japanese one stop shop TA system", you get in contact with Peat or Arco who do trading using this system (see ST forex--IchiMoku magic thread). I'm sure they will answer your questions if you ask nicely .

    There is plenty of literature around ...just google.

    PS...yes.. I had to look up the names to spell them properly for this post:o
    Last edited by Hoop; 10-10-2009 at 07:47 PM. Reason: wrong spelling......... Changed Chikon to Chikou

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phaedrus View Post
    Hoop, when (if!) you do this, it would be good to start your chart at the beginning of 2004. Then we can directly compare the Ichimoku plots of this uptrend with those of the last one.
    Hi Phaedrus
    liked your (if!)

    I tried last night ... being a miserable SOB that I am, I use free charts ..unfortunately it seems 3 years is all I can get out of the free version of stockcharts for the NZX50 index. Other free versions I have, have longer periods but no Ichmoku system..so I'm a bit stuck at this moment in time

    ....haven't given up yet..there must be a way to get a longer period. 200+ day period
    If anyone out there can help just post or PM.

    Phaedrus..you would not have appreciated my attempt last night I tried painting your various colour coded R&S lines onto the already cluttered Ichi chart..made it look like a dogs breakfast.

    So...work in progress

  14. #54
    Senior Member kizame's Avatar
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    Smile

    Thanks Hoop,the thin green line(chikon span)seems to give a nice indication of a trend change when it crosses the index line,it also forms double bottoms and tops with the index,so very interesting.

  15. #55
    Senior Member Toulouse - Luzern's Avatar
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    Smile Thanks Phaedrus

    Hi,
    Firstly thanks Phaedrus for all your posts. I believe in the TA approach you set out.

    My answer to your question 6 is yes.

    I use Supercharts in DB, Incredible Charts and Yahoo and OBV RSI etc
    I dont know yet how to copy my charts into ST posts.

    I am interested in entry point filters - how to find the stocks each day or week etc from the NZX50, ASX50 etc that have entered into an uptend ....

    rgds

    PS: Thanks also to all of the other ST chart posters eg Hoop - Absolute Advance ...

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by kizame View Post
    Thanks Hoop,the thin green line(chikon span)seems to give a nice indication of a trend change when it crosses the index line,it also forms double bottoms and tops with the index,so very interesting.
    Phaedrus has put you right.... the chikou span is just the NZX50 index line set back 26 periods.


    So whats the point in charting a lagging trend line (the chikou span)?
    What use is it?.. apart from telling us the trend that we already know about.
    Last year I asked these questions and I looked it up and learnt it.... Today I couldn't remember what I learnt last year and had to go hunting for my notes.


    In my previous post I mentioned the crossing of the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen giving off buy and sell signals and the position of that crossing to the Kumo to indicate the strength of those buy/sell signals....apparantly I was vague about what I didn't remember about the position of the Chikou span in relation to its NZX50 index....... which is another indicator for the strength of those buy/sell signals.

    I googled this site up....Its probably better to
    quote from http://www.fxstreet.com/education/te...oku-kinko-hyo/
    "..... Broadly, a crossing of the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen is bullish and a crossing of the Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen is bearish.
    To the positions of price against the cloud and the crossing of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen the relative position of today's price against that of 26 periods prior determines the strength of the signals. The Chikou Span (lagging span) is today's price moved back 26 periods. If the Chikou Span (today's price) is below that of 26 periods ago and a sell signal occurs, it is a stronger signal than had it been above the close of 26 periods ago. Equally the opposite is true for buy signals......"

    Kizame... Hope this is a clearer understanding of what role the Chikon Span has in the scheme of things.

    PS:.. Re reading my Ichi notes has helped me understand the finer more advanced details as well ...so I'm learning new ichi tricks as we're going including my spelling of Chikou :o
    Last edited by Hoop; 10-10-2009 at 07:59 PM.

  17. #57
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    Theres a whole thread devoted to the IchiMoku in the forex forum and I recently posted a methodology for trading with it that I stole from the Currency Trader Magazine. of a year or so ago.


    see this link for details

    http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/th...ts_webpage.htm
    Last edited by peat; 10-10-2009 at 11:46 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    Theres a whole thread devoted to the IchiMoku in the forex forum and I recently posted a methodology for trading with it that I stole from the Currency Trader Magazine. of a year or so ago.


    see this link for details

    http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~peat/this_is_peats_webpage.htm

    Thxs Peat...much appreciated

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Phaedrus ... if this behaviour is occuring continuously and with the surges being related to macro events... would this help explain the spooky correllation to the past?
    Ah, but Belg, as a mature TA exponent, I don't feel the need to offer any explanation. For me, it is enough to simply observe and perhaps utilise such interesting phenomena.

  20. #60
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    Default Nudging...

    Just in case some of you haven't been watching, NZSX is nudging the 3250 level (3 red ??? on Phaedrus' chart) about 3 weeks earlier than predicted.
    I'm thinking about considering panicking...

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