NZSX50 - Good News!

[Hoop]

I think the butterfly flapped it's wings in Japan first......

Japan is a worry Xerof....QE is a dangerous tool if mismanaged.

Looks like an up day for the market NZ50 4455. Back above 4400 Hoop ?

Seems rather strange ...eh?? ...It was down -1.2% when I left ...came back turned on the computer to see the carnage and there wasn't much to see..NZX50 regained the loss to close flat...The other overseas markets didn't recover....what happened??

[troyvdh]

Hold on...returns required i.e. deposits et al at banks do they not remain eclipsed by divs from companies in the sharemarket....i.e CEN and Pfi ..who have both forecast greater payouts....am I wrong...why the panic

[RRR]

Thanks Hoop, correction is good for the market. Markets don't go up in a straight line! I do hope this is just a correction

[MAC]

We may be seeing the ASX200 bottom at the MA200 also ?. The short term test for the NZ50 would seem to be if it returns above it's prior trend line next week, presently at 4501, then the avoidance of a double top over the next few weeks ?. Would be happy to receive advice from those with TA experience much greater than mine (novice).

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Sparky how do rate against the cat?

[RRR]

NZX forum is much more exuberant than ASX forum by the numbers at least It was exactly the opposite not so long ago and many posters boasted that they don't care about NZX and the forum - felt very neglected and unloved. Time to buy Ozzie?

[Billy Boy]

NZX50 now within 275 points of the ASX. Slashing and burning our way too within striking distance of taking over the ASX!

YUP.... Singapore exchange is next

[Merc]

... yes, the bull is now 4.5 years old, but relative to earnings, the companies are at or close to full value...

I am a semi-novice in the share market with the occasional purchase over the years tending to trigger a world wide melt down in the share market (and here you thought it was external factors like an Asian crisis).

But I am a landlord who has a pretty good grasp on the property cycle and how it fits within economic trends. The property market tends to follow a roughly 10 year cycle of over-valued houses, recession, under valued houses, recovery, boom, correct value, bubble, bust... start all over again. The last bust was late 2007.

Presumably the share market follows a similar cyclic pattern. Would this be similar in the share market and if so, where in the cycle would you pick the current position to be?

[Merc]

Thank you - your chart also happens in the property market as well

I have a feeling that my buying shares now shouldn't trigger the usual recession (although if I'd had spare cash in the last year or two it would have been more certain) but it does pay to check.

The usual share charts only seem to go back 10 years which doesn't help in comparing cycles with cycles. Apparently the last cycle was the highest since WW2 so I'm somewhat cautious as to how high or far this one will go.

Does anyone have any charts of historical trends and/or theories on this?

[noodles]

I'm pretty sure the 1987 bubble was one of the highest, along with 1929 and the 2000 dotcom bubble (all in inflation relative terms). 2008 was the highest in recent times. were nowhere near a bubble right now

There may not be a share market bubble, but a few commentators have said the bond bubble is bursting.

What does that mean for the sharemarket? Probably not very good. The recent correction probably has a lot to do with the us trasury yields increasing sharply.