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11-06-2013, 10:08 PM
#561
The facts :.... The NZX50 bull is 4.25 years old......Average life span of a bull is 3.75 years old.....
The risk of a cycle reversal to Bear grows with each Bull correction...and there's an excellent chance the next bull correction is upon us now.
Use bell curve methodology to work out the old bull's chances to live on
Hoop
PHD (doom)
Last edited by Hoop; 11-06-2013 at 10:10 PM.
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11-06-2013, 10:51 PM
#562
Member
That figures - I bought some shares last week...
What is the average life span of a Bear?
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12-06-2013, 12:15 AM
#563
Merc...keep an eye on interest rates...as we all know...an increasing amount of folk (ie retirement) require a return on any investment to maintain/sustain a given life style....currently many shares offer great divs ...folk talk about a "bubble in the housing mkt"....daahhh....to build a new house now..and more so in Canterbury (unless you have to) one would have to be quite desperate and clueless....i.e. over priced/built in a frenzied atmosphere.....Im pretty sure that a home being built now will in time adopt a "nickname"....similar to houses built in the mid/late nineties....i.e. poly castles.....we have thousands of them in CHCH...all sadly doomed....some say 20 billion dollars some say more nation wide....cheers anyway...troy
oops sorry ...also (as you are probably aware as a fellow landlord)...what is the likely consequence about somewhat insane increases in building costs on existing properties,,,,gee it aint rocket science is it. eh
Last edited by troyvdh; 12-06-2013 at 12:22 AM.
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12-06-2013, 12:20 AM
#564
Member
I used a very crude unscientific indicator of my own based on a 5 wk moving ave advance vs decline on the nzx and it is telling me to sell. Moved a bit to cash th last few days. Would have done it a week or two earlier but was away with little access to the net n my spreedsheet.
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12-06-2013, 12:36 AM
#565
Originally Posted by Merc
That figures - I bought some shares last week...
What is the average life span of a Bear?
Welcome to sharetrader Merc.
Bear cycle lifespan varies much more than a bull cycle lifespan so to average out a bears lifespan would mostly be inaccurate. Its best to say it ranges mostly between 6 to 18 months.
Originally Posted by Merc
I am a semi-novice in the share market with the occasional purchase over the years tending to trigger a world wide melt down in the share market (and here you thought it was external factors like an Asian crisis).
ahhh...so we have you to blame..eh?
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12-06-2013, 09:05 AM
#566
Originally Posted by turmeric
By all accounts the OCR aint changing until next year.
I agree wit this and the number of deals the banks are doing to get people to fix IMHO confirms that believe this too.
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12-06-2013, 10:23 AM
#567
Member
Originally Posted by Hoop
...ahhh...so we have you to blame..eh?
Undoubtedly! Timing wrong every time.
The first rental we bought was "on luck" 20 odd years ago. The neighbours told us to so we did. And the timing turned out right.
The second house we bought was the most valuable of the houses we have since bought. It was bought on a falling market in 1998 (it fell a lot further) and sold on a rising market in 2003 (it promptly took off upwards). It resold recently for twice what we sold it for. 2 years from now it will be worth even more. Oh and the first lot of tenants moved after a year and, as rents had actually gone down in that time we took a hit in the "dividends" as well.
Why valuable? The incredible learning curve - it taught us a huge amount about cycles and the maths!
We bought a few others in the next couple of years based on the maths and they have done rather well.
So, with large mortgages, why the share market now? Elderly mother with shares who claims ill health when it comes to decisions. She still thinks Ron Brierly is wonderful - and holds GPG shares.
Nothing like a little of my money in shares to make me sit up, pay attention and be in a better position to monitor what is going on with her - considerably larger - portfolio. I do know that most of her shares are worth a lot less than they were in 2007 when I put them in a watch list.
Cyclic share market: Was reading last night about secular bear markets... interesting...
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12-06-2013, 10:45 AM
#568
Household debt hasn't decreased substantially since 2008, in fact it's been on the rise again since last year. Property market is climbing at 10%p.a. When interest rates do start to rise again next year it could be an interesting watch.
Household Debt.jpg
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12-06-2013, 10:58 AM
#569
Originally Posted by Merc
........
Nothing like a little of my money in shares to make me sit up, pay attention and be in a better position to monitor what is going on with her - considerably larger - portfolio. I do know that most of her shares are worth a lot less than they were in 2007 when I put them in a watch list.
Cyclic share market: Was reading last night about secular bear markets... interesting...
Merc ...Have a look at the Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Market thread...Winner 69 and I did some extensive work on his thread....The secular bear cycle is still operating on many global markets so this thread is still current ..... The Wall St Secular Bear is 13 years old now. I think the secular Bear is operating on the NZX50 its hard to find Annualised PE Ratio data stretching back decades as the NZX50 was created back in 2003 and is a different animal to the old NZSE40 or what ever it was called back then...Winner69 may provide us with the NZ data..
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12-06-2013, 11:19 AM
#570
quote Post #856 27th May..........So what will happen?
We can't predict the future so we take one day at a time and one step at a time.......First step is watch the MA50 and the 4400 area and see where that leads us to...
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......................................
6th June Post #909 ....MA50 broken ...NZX50 has entered into the 4400 area
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......................................
Technicals still not great...The failed rally is a pull back (see Bulkowski's website here) and has made life a little more pessimistic.
Of interest is the previous post re: secular bear cycles...they are usually seen as a very large trading range pattern ...notice the secular break on the chart...we are at the top of that long term trading pattern again ..so another bearish sign for the NZSE.
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