NZSX50 - Good News!

[000831]

Updated news, ten years US government bond yeild raised to 2.25% this Tuesday. South East Asian and South American share markets crashed as JAPAN. Contigence may occur.

[winner69]

The numbers man said - Contigence may occur

Contingence sounds painful mate - is it catching? is it terminal?

[Xerof]

Not sure if he meant contagion or incontinence, but both are probably suitable alternates

[Hoop]

I’d like to say that I’ve appreciated a lot of the discussion on this and other threads in regard to whether we are encountering a bull market correction or a bear market reversal. Complements to you all.

I understand secular and cyclical market technical’s, the average age of bull markets, and the age of this bull market. But, when I spin around I do not see the exuberance required to catalyse a reversal to a bear market. I’m not suggesting that there aren’t issues out there, or over the horizon, but at present it feels to me to be more like 1984 or 2005 rather than 1987 or 2008.

1986: My flatmates were having a pissing contest over how many brierly shares they had accumulated on their credit cards. In what seemed like a short duration every set of traffic lights in Wellington where I was living suddenly had a shiny new BMW. It was clear to a lot of us that this was not going to last.

2007: I was living in Auckland, young folk in my office were buying new homes with 5% deposit, smoko room discussion was how to buy self-funding rental properties, and remember all those property development shows on TV. Again it was clear it wasn’t going to last.

I’m just a humble observer of life trying to understand the view of others, and perhaps I am missing something.

Can those with a bear view convey to us all which market they feel is about to burst and what signs of extreme exuberance you feel are manifesting in making a bear market assessment at this time ?.

Good times feels "normal" ..Only after the party ends does it then feel exuberant.

[MAC]

I can largely appreciate that not having full retrospective insight is a risk, I also understand and respect the view that a sound risk management approach is to raise a cash position when a bull market cycle is looking statistically long. I guess the contrary risk is that one may become out of the market for too long and suffer a loss of return.

I am a believer that there are usually at least some signs that a bear market may be upon us though.

David Darst of Morgan Stanley is one of the few vocal public economists I've a healthy respect for. At the 2013 SALT conference in Las Vegas he floated a 6 point bear market checklist which may be of interest per link below.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100720862

[000831]

Japan down 5.13% since openning, Shanghai down 3.39%, Hong Kong down 3.16%

Phillipine down 4.39% Thailand down 1.32% , Singapore down 1.26%

Asian foreign investments are flowing back to Japan and US.

us ten year government bond yield : http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND

JAPAN ten year government bond yield: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GJGB10:IND

[000831]

1997 Asian Financial Crisis

[000831]

1997 Asian Financial Crisis

Indonesia raised Fasbi by 0.25% yesterday. Other countries in this area will follow and try to keep foreign investment.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

About to test that 4400 support again.

[Goldstein]

You know the market is in trouble when RAK and PGC are leaders for the day...

I was trying to think of something witty to say, but I don't think I can top Moosie's.

Hard to judge where to from here. I pretty much cashed up a few weeks ago, only because the stocks I had were looking a bit bloated with sellers starting to build. I'm a bit lucky in that regard..