NZSX50 - Good News!

[Hoop]

Attack of the Panda!

Wonderful wonderful human psychology at work..........

Chinese Torture???

[000831]

Meh. The 4% dip has been clawed back.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND

Hope you didn't sell into the panic 000831

Did not sell and did not buy, just watching and walked away. Have been traded since I was 16 in China. Luckly enough to experience two big cycles and major crashes, 2001 and 2007. Seen this kind of scene often.

China may suffer mainly from the property side, rather than share market. Currently it has cash crunch issue, bond and share funds all trying to cash out then caused bond and share markets crash.

The next half year is really a chanllenge for Chinese property market, hope not like 2007 USA property market......bury in mind.

[000831]

Maybe, but the guy calls a share market crash every other week.

yeah, since 24th of May. I am just saying Asian area may have financial crisis, like 1997. The sharemarket first, then property market, then currency..............

[gv1]

dear gv...never a truer (?) word said....as I have said in the past some folks investment horizon is quite frankly a reflection of how many folk view success....a quick buck made ..an enormous feeling of self satisfaction whilst living in their 300 square meter mansion thinking that they "have finally arrived"....I could go on ....cheers

sorry missed it?

[gv1]

Might look good from a NZ market perspective as we have had a 4.25 years of good times (bull market cycle) ...but the poor buggers over in China have endured a 3 year bear ...market dividend yield stays the same as you paid for the share.

That's why Wbuffet is what he is .. and the rest just a Jo bloke.

[gv1]

Attack of the Panda!

Wonderful wonderful human psychology at work.

GV1 - I have to smile at your suggestion people don't borrow to fund shares. I think that's 95% correct. Too many people borrow at the high end of the market, rather than use debt judiciously when things are very cheap. I have only used debt very sparingly, did very well with it buying a bit more Ryman and Diligent. Paid everything back in March April this year when I felt some irrational behaviour coming into play.

I wonder how Chinese panic will affect Europe, USA and Australasia tomorrow. Will be fascinating to watch.

Yeah, Hi Sparky.
I guess it is and it is not psychology at work . Its all about good investment decisions. Iam a full-time trader, still learning and I refuse to borrow money to fund shares until I have learnt my game.
Whole life is a game..how you play is important.

[Mista_Trix]

Yeah, Hi Sparky.
I guess it is and it is not psychology at work . Its all about good investment decisions. Iam a full-time trader, still learning and I refuse to borrow money to fund shares until I have learnt my game.
Whole life is a game..how you play is important.

Full-time trader as in a stay at home in and out of the market all day? Or a, hold a job but have a screen open and multi-task all day?

... Respect either way

[gv1]

Full-time trader as in a stay at home in and out of the market all day? Or a, hold a job but have a screen open and multi-task all day?

... Respect either way

Hi Mista trix
Yeah bit of everything. I can't do any 8-5 job,because of my personal situation. I did in and out of market daily few years ago but have stopped beacause I now see as investing in good growth etc companies is better than the stress of doing it daily in case if you can not be at computer/internet for some reason, loss can be huge. Hope this helps and all the best in investing.

[Mista_Trix]

Hi Mista trix
Yeah bit of everything. I can't do any 8-5 job,because of my personal situation. I did in and out of market daily few years ago but have stopped beacause I now see as investing in good growth etc companies is better than the stress of doing it daily in case if you can not be at computer/internet for some reason, loss can be huge. Hope this helps and all the best in investing.

It makes me wonder as well what the research would say balancing - the potential financial gains made from intraday trading, vs, the likely long term health problems (heart, blood pressure) from the stress, versus holding value companies and having better health... a little tongue in cheek, but also a little seriously.

I don't know how any of the intraday guys do it - too much stress for me :-S

Anyways, well off topic. A much better looking market today.

[Hoop]

quote Post #856 27th May..........So what will happen?
We can't predict the future so we take one day at a time and one step at a time.......First step is watch the MA50 and the 4400 area and see where that leads us to...

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......................................
6th June Post #909 ....MA50 broken ...NZX50 has entered into the 4400 area

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......................................

Quote 12 June Post #952......Technicals still not great...The failed rally is a pull back (see Bulkowski's website here) and has made life a little more pessimistic.
Of interest is the previous post re: secular bear cycles...they are usually seen as a very large trading range pattern ...notice the secular break on the chart...we are at the top of that long term trading pattern again ..so another bearish sign for the NZSE.

Update
Since that post 2 weeks ago this correction has intensified The 4400 TA Target has been overtaken and now the next supports come into play. The primary support involving the previous Bull market top back in 2007 is in play...its a positive seeing the NZX50 jumping back above this primary support.... This primary support has secular meaning (a classic signature of a secular Bear market cycle [not always but most of the time] is its flat top pattern) If this classic signature pattern holds true this time then we are witnessing a cyclic reversal and the death of the 4.25 year old Bull.
Its still early days ..so best to keep this possible cyclic reversal as a cautionary thought until there's further evidence to confirm (buy signals) ......It may take weeks as cyclic reversals to Bear market (phase 1) are very hard to spot in their infancy.

Where to from here ...take it day by day...We are more likely witnessing a relief rally which could peter out at a resistance point watch these areas:
....the 4400 medium term resistance line
....The MA100 resistance line
....the 4475 short term resistance line
Each resistance hurdle the index breaks above strengthens the chance that the bull is still alive.

It would be premature to assume the correction is over, it is only 6 weeks old, the average investor should wait for confirmation..if you are a short term investor you will already be "in" today and be riding out this upward bounce.