NZSX50 - Good News!

[MAC]

A good move up in the NZ50 today, seemingly shaking off all that go away and taper off the fiscal cliff news from the US.

Any TA worth their salt should be able to tell us where the NZ50 will be at years end. Anyone prepared to have a crack, it's only four months away ?

[winner69]

A good move up in the NZ50 today, seemingly shaking off all that go away and taper off the fiscal cliff news from the US.

Any TA worth their salt should be able to tell us where the NZ50 will be at years end. Anyone prepared to have a crack, it's only four months away ?

You being cynical now mac ....not your usual modes operadi mate

I always said nzx50 to be 5000 by Christmas ....said that last year .....and this year ....I be right one year eh

But then the world don't like Octobers ..... Yanks have a day off before the action starts ....so how about 4000 then.

[MAC]

I'm just looking for some TA forecasts winner, something we don't seem to see a lot of when it comes to the NZ50 on this forum ?

[Hoop]

I'm just looking for some TA forecasts winner, something we don't seem to see a lot of when it comes to the NZ50 on this forum ?

You don't see a lot of them because TA can't foresee the future ....TA indicators rely on trading data...

Chartists use Repeating Chart patterns statistics to obtain a probability...using the principals.. that investor behaviour repeats and "this time isn't different"
Chartists also use cycles..(cycles always repeat 100% of the time)... extended trend lines/cycles, extended support and resistance lines etc.

Being a Chartist I like to think I forecast better than a Weather Forecaster....therefore I know I'm better than an Economist because Weather Forecasters think they are:

Us Chartists had a bit of serious competition a few years back with Paul the Octopus but since his demise the spotlight is back where it rightfully belongs

[Hoop]

Mac you brought back some memories about Phaedrus..He was mostly a TA man did very little charting with patterns or extended channels to try and predict the future.
Being a TAist and quoting that TA can not predict the future, he used TA indicators with history up to the "now"...e.g 6 month charts... however He got p1ssed off with various posters who claimed he devised sell signals with hindsight and why didn't he give them advanced warnings about next week or next month... so on the 4th June 2009 he created the NZSX50 - Good News thread and at post #1 did a sarcastic "tongue in cheek" chart projection of the next NZX50 top naming the date and exact time it would happen.. unfortunately Post #1 chart is no more as the website Phaedrus was using closed down and all his charted data disappeared into cyberspace.....This is the first 3 posts... the humour is beautiful..

It will take a 53% rise from current levels for the NZSX50 to regain its 2007 peaks. I am pleased to be able to report that this will happen at 2.15 pm on 19/12/2011.

Naturally, such a confident assertion rests on a couple of minor assumptions :-
(1) The bottom of the Bear market was reached on 3/3/09.
(2) The subsequent recovery will be at the usual 20% per annum.

Phaedrus, thanks for this. Can you give me the time it will be reached? I want to place my sell orders now and pre-book the debt-financed holiday.

2.15pm, Placebo. I've already told you this. Pay attention!

However two years after this chart was made (post#1) even Phaedrus was starting to wonder "WTF" together with some wonderful black humour when the NZX50 index kept traveling up this channel as predicted

Below is a copy from his 27th June 2011 post #229 modified chart with his colour coded personal indicator (the Phaedrus MSI indicator) added

Interestingly... back then with the wall of worry and threats of another (worse) GFC , the 4400 top seemed to be a too high a target.

[MAC]

Fundamentals are looking good Hoop, thought your charts might be looking a bit rosier too ?. Although, having a weather forecaster in the family I can understand that making a prediction is a delicate thing.

We should thus then now confidently and absolutely predict, that it will be either sunny or rainy, and the NZ50 will be either up or down.

I think we can all probably do a little better than that actually, lots of exp in this forum ?

[MAC]

How come Daryl Guppy can do it so well and easily and no other TA’s can ?

Image below from CNBC this morning. “Sideways pattern watch for a re-test of 4400”

Perhaps Phaedrus and Guppy are the same person ?

Attachment 4777

[Hoop]

How come Daryl Guppy can do it so well and easily and no other TA’s can ?

Image below from CNBC this morning. “Sideways pattern watch for a re-test of 4400”

Perhaps Phaedrus and Guppy are the same person ?

Attachment 4777

Two lines on a chart. and a guess...is that chart result above the best he can do...scheesh

EDIT:
when I get time tonight I try to post something.. I guess it is overdue to update the last chart which I posted was on 2nd July 2013 post #1174 These charting posts take upwards of 1/2 hr or more to produce depending how much data I add to it..

[winner69]

Two lines on a chart. and a guess...is that chart result above the best he can do...scheesh

Its probably what he said that impressed mac

He's a guru mate ....if he said DIL was in a uptrend and would hit 800 by Christmas he would egt another zillion subscribers

[Mista_Trix]

Interesting,
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11120104