NZSX50 - Good News!

[Valuegrowth]

I don’t think anybody can identity market top or bottom 100% correctly. Still market may go higher during next six months while having volatility. We may have correction during next six to 12 months. Intelligent value investors will avoid over valued stocks while following wonderful businesses with great value. In addition contrarian markets players will follow out of favour sectors, commodities and stocks now.

As I said before it is time to identify the next most bullish stock markets, commodities, sectors, stocks and currencies before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[MAC]

Hoop, you may have somehow read something personal into my post, I can assure you that was not the case, no offense intended if any was taken.

[MAC]

I don’t think anybody can identity market top or bottom 100% correctly. Still market may go higher during next six months while having volatility. We may have correction during next six to 12 months. Intelligent value investors will avoid over valued stocks while following wonderful businesses with great value. In addition contrarian markets players will follow out of favour sectors, commodities and stocks now.

As I said before it is time to identify the next most bullish stock markets, commodities, sectors, stocks and currencies before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Markets climb a wall of worry and it can frequently seem that the end is neigh when corrections come along. The challenge is to focus on the fundamental signals and to filter the noise.

It is a legitimate risk management strategy to incrementally exit the market based on statistical market cycle duration averages. It takes a lot of discipline to do so and comes with its own risk that potentially being out of the market for long durations may result in lower returns over time than remaining in.

Economists and fundamental analysts establish close alignments between market cycles and specific economic metrics and some have success in using leading indicators to accurately predict market tops when those times arise, for the rest of us this can seem to be an unobtainable prospect.

The wise approach is for each investor to have some form of considered strategy that suits his/her risk tolerance and experience level. Statistical TA, economic FA, individual stock analysis, asset diversification, etc, each to their own.

[Hoop]

Hoop, you may have somehow read something personal into my post, I can assure you that was not the case, no offense intended if any was taken.

No didn't read anything into your post.....just trying to twist the thinking around and get it outside the square ... as it takes all sorts to make a market....and predictors come in all types of personal temperments, behaviours, disciplines and animal types such as bears bulls rabbits squirrels and leemings and they all have their day in the sun at some point in time

...and by the way... here's something that's really scarey....speaking about doomdayists and stopped clocks, the USA's biggest permabear Nouriel Roubini has just gotten all bullish about the S&P500...He's only 4.5 years late but hey who's counting..huh? .....This has to be the biggest contrarian investing screaming sell signal of 2013...eh ? ........Anyway they reckon he's always right so maybe it will happen in the next bull market cycle ...it's reassuring to know that there will be another bull market cycle sometime in the future..thanks for that Nouriel....

Edit: I'm living the life in the fast lane (satire) the gamers in the family have chewed up the 160GB data cap.....gone from 13mb/sec to 22kb/sec atm ...took 2 minutes to load the ST page

[MAC]

No didn't read anything into your post.....just trying to twist the thinking around and get it outside the square ... as it takes all sorts to make a market....and predictors come in all types of personal temperments, behaviours, disciplines and animal types such as bears bulls rabbits squirrels and leemings and they all have their day in the sun at some point in time

...and by the way... here's something that's really scarey....speaking about doomdayists and stopped clocks, the USA's biggest permabear Nouriel Roubini has just gotten all bullish about the S&P500...He's only 4.5 years late but hey who's counting..huh? .....This has to be the biggest contrarian investing screaming sell signal of 2013...eh ? ........Anyway they reckon he's always right so maybe it will happen in the next bull market cycle ...it's reassuring to know that there will be another bull market cycle sometime in the future..thanks for that Nouriel....

Edit: I'm living the life in the fast lane (satire) the gamers in the family have chewed up the 160GB data cap.....gone from 13mb/sec to 22kb/sec atm ...took 2 minutes to load the ST page

Perhaps he was serving up some of that happy juice in that roof top hot tub party room Hoop. The other bears had to have it confiscated, he'll return to normal anytime soon now ............

Not such a bad looking party room though I have to say.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...penthouse.html

Aside, I'm doing well if my teenagers leave me any internet at months end at all, tried turning it off once, crumbs !

[MAC]

This is a new metric for me (PE/VIX ratio), thought I’d share. It places us within the present cycle at 1999 and 2004 equivalent positions;

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09...x-complacency/

Although, I can’t decide if it’s an FA or TA metric ?

[MAC]

Not only does it seem that the NZ economy will outperform, but one wonders how much of the mountain of cash accumulated by kiwi baby boomers in Australia will return to New Zealand over the next decade ?.

http://www.3news.co.nz/Economic-reco...3/Default.aspx

Each time I drive past Frankton it seems there’s yet another new suburb of returned expats.

[Mista_Trix]

Interesting recovery off the American news. I would have thought we were going to have a turbulent couple of days for sure. I wonder if Markets are settling a bit. The last few weeks have been cries of a rocking couple of months ahead starting with this, but if the NZX isn't really reacting, makes you think how the next little while will play out.

More a contemplation than any really analysis or opinion :-S

[MAC]

Interesting recovery off the American news. I would have thought we were going to have a turbulent couple of days for sure. I wonder if Markets are settling a bit. The last few weeks have been cries of a rocking couple of months ahead starting with this, but if the NZX isn't really reacting, makes you think how the next little while will play out.

More a contemplation than any really analysis or opinion :-S

It is interesting, if you overlay the S&P500 and NZ50 during last year’s October/November debt ceiling debate, the NZ50 didn't correlate or correct at all, in fact it advanced during that whole US risk off period.

[Hoop]

When reviewing old bull markets it sometimes pays to step back from the current disturbing noise and view the larger picture...kinda like sitting on a hill far away you get see the wood down below and not the trees.

From this perspective this old bull still looks healthy .....it seems this recently past bearish period has all the signatures of another Bull Market Correction........................................ .......... and it so it's "upwards and onwards" again.

5000 by Xmas??? and overtake the AORDS next year???..... The possibilities don't look as far fetched now compared to a year ago...eh??