NZSX50 - Good News!

[Hoop]

Beautiful picture there Hoop, cheers.

One question though is (can't remember if I've mixed them up or not), when is this cyclical bull going to turn into a secular bull? Sinc eit has well and truly broken long-term resistance, is it now in that territory?

Probably having (secular) mentioned on the primary resistance (now support) is misleading as cyclic and secular are measured differently....Usually a chart as above does not accurately show a secular change.....Secular reversal from bear to bull requires an annualised PE ratio to change trend and having it confirmed from downtrending to an uptrending direction....These are very long term happenings...Winner and I have been watching the AORDS the last year or so... it seems there could be a reversal back to Secular Bull Market...as I said we have been watching this event for a year now and although Winner seems convinced I'm only partially convinced it takes a long time...eh..

Why worry about Secular bulls and Bears?????
Secular Bear Market periods signatures on a standard long term charts (10 year ..20 year) shows a high incidence of flat cyclic bull market tops (there has been exceptions e.g ASX 2003 to 2007) ...this indicates that the S&P 500 for example with it's secular bear market cycle period has a high probability reversing into another cyclic bear market as it's Cyclic Bull market cycle has reached the flat top area now..
The question to ask is whether NZX50 is in a secular bear cycle or not...NZX Data is very difficult to obtain...

below is re posted chart from Mick100 post...it shows the flatness of the S&P500 index during Secular market cycles....overall though with inflation and US currency affected the value of E in the PE Ratio the gold standard reflects the true worth of E over time you can see that its possible to have a rising market but the currency devaluation shown up by the gold standard shows that the Rising Equity Market Value during a secular bear market cycle is a mirage.....Its easy to see at the moment on Wall St the S&P500 has risen a lot these last few years but as far as value goes its a mirage as the US$ is worth a lot less now due to series of QE

Now...compare this with rising NZX50 and the rising NZ$... NZ is currently seeing a STELLAR capital growth period!!! not seen for at least the last 50 years ...and guess what? Most NZer's are a lot wealthier now global-wise..this has to be a good thing..yet most NZers don't realise it!!!!!!! They keep on referring NZX50 with the S&P500..yes the trend between the two exchanges is correlating these last few years... but the rest is a mirage, courtesy of Uncle Ben

[MAC]

Onward and upward for the NZ economy with no sign of an economic top on the horizon, ...., should support the NZ50 just fine.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11137643

[CJ]

Greenbour are in trouble then. Strong economy means the incumbent has a huge advantage and we all know Greenbour have nothing in their cabinet to offset that other than raising taxes and promising things we could never afford under them.

Not necessarily - strong economy means people more willing to vote for socialist policies. Its when times are tough, belt tightening is needed so they veer to the right.

It will be an interesting year with that Cun_liffe already making promises the economy cant keep.

[Mista_Trix]

Greenbour are in trouble then. Strong economy means the incumbent has a huge advantage and we all know Greenbour have nothing in their cabinet to offset that other than raising taxes and promising things we could never afford under them.

Guess it's time to buy MRP and MER then eh?!

You're totally right with the economy stuff, but I don't actually think the average person really understands the advantageous position we've been put in by this government on a world standing. What may be their downfall are; changing the rules around right to protest at sea, the GCSB scandal, asset sales, 'crony capitalism', etc etc.

It's the growing list of little things that are starting to stack against them where the 'right vs left' argument can take hold. At its core I think NZ would like to 'think' of itself as being more left, so if the issues above take hold and the 'right vs left' debate strengthens we may see some issues for the incumbent govt.

Outside of a couple of things, compared to the rest of the world our right and left are not dramatically different, although god I'd hate to see where we'd be now if labour had stayed in power. :-S

[CJ]

NO doubt the Nats have made a few mistakes but Labour would also - they put in place interest free student loans and WFF and now you cant get rid of the politically.

Dont get bogged down in the detail, look at the big picture to choose your party - big picture, I like the economic policies of National, others may like the socialist policies of Labour and that is where the debate should be drawn, not on immaterial issues (immaterial to the government and the bigger picture that is)

[okay]

I'm picking the US politicians will do what all good politicians do. They will continue their usual grand standing, finger pointing, and posturing up until the eleventh hour. At which time they will decide to kick the debt ceiling "can" further down the road, with a temporary raise of the limit.

NZ has it's own political "can" being kicked down the road. National Super. It will continue to be kicked and kicked down the road, or put off to a far off date by which time the can will have turned into a barrel for the next generation.

[okay]

The world is safe for a few months. Get out the cheque book and start spending like a drunken sailor everyone!!!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-deal-shutdown

Lol. Don't get too drunk, US earnings seasons next, which is what drives the market after all

[winner69]

Wrong again I am ......NZX50 to be well north of 5000 by Xmas methinks

Whats going to stop it going up and up .... nothing

[CJ]

I'm not too worried about more Impala's, Vipers and Corvettes on our roads!

I not think NZ roads are designed for American cars - too many corners.

Give me an Evo/STI any day.

[CJ]

Wrong again I am ......NZX50 to be well north of 5000 by Xmas methinks

Whats going to stop it going up and up .... nothing

Tons of green arrows on my holdings list yesterday - and some big gains - PEB, MET, RYM, even the power co's have recovered now that MEL is over.

Bring on the sunny weather and the pre Christmas growth spurt!