NZSX50 - Good News!

[Phaedrus]

This intriguing chart was posted by W69 on the Dow thread, but its relevance here is quite remarkable.



Careful examination shows us that over the last 110 years, the average market rally has been 100% in 700 trading days. This is exactly in line with the "target" increase as featured in this thread! Isn't that spooky, possums?



I can now confidently predict that the current NZSX rally will peak at 4835.91 on 19/6/2012. Isn't that good to know?

This will be exactly 6 months to the day from NZSX50 regaining its 2007 peaks. It's nice finding your systems in tune with the cosmos, but too many coincidences become somewhat unnerving.

[winner69]

Fascinating Phaedrus .... is really 'spooky possums' sort of stuff

But is it .... cosmos (your word) and/or nature seem to work in strange ways

Paul Ormerod has some interesting articles and books about the similarities of economys/markets and nature .... intriguing stuff

[Arbitrage]

Phaedrus, Good to see you sticking your neck out on this one. There looks to be a little bit of scatter on the previous rally data. Have you considered any error limits on your predictions?

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus, Good to see you sticking your neck out on this one.

I'm not really sticking my neck out, Arb. You will notice that I craftily refrained from giving the time of the peak.

There looks to be a little bit of scatter on the previous rally data.

Aberrations all. There is but one true average. You may be one of those negative people that my astrologer warned me to avoid. She says they tarnish my aura, inhibit my creative visualisations and throw my chakras out of alignment.

Have you considered any error limits on your predictions?

I don't like to focus unduly on this, but yes, I have. See the chart in post #79.

[Novitiate]

"I'm not really sticking my neck out, Arb. You will notice that I craftily refrained from giving the time of the peak."

Thanks for this - best laugh I've had all day.

I have, of course, noted the date in my diary.

[Footsie]

Phaedrus

Im not quite sure whether you are taking the mickey out of yourself or not....

Alas, you must be making quite a bit of money at present as you seem to be in a jovial mood.

[Dr_Who]

Hey guys, good news... NZ fund managers made a return of 30% last year... *YAWN *YAWN...

NZSE have gone up 35% and they have gross 30%??? WTF?

Better to put your money in the index and pay min brokers fee.

[Glendoonie]

Footsie, you're wondering whether he's taking the mickey? The answer is right here.

... my astrologer warned me to avoid. She says they tarnish my aura, inhibit my creative visualisations and throw my chakras out of alignment.

Phaedrus, I'll diarise the 19th too

[777]

Hey guys, good news... NZ fund managers made a return of 30% last year... *YAWN *YAWN...

NZSE have gone up 35% and they have gross 30%??? WTF?

Better to put your money in the index and pay min brokers fee.

NZSE 50 31/12/08 was 2715.71.
NZSE 50 31/12/09 was 3230.15.

Increase 18.94%

I think it depends what dates you use Doctor. The index was down at 2522.32 at the end of Feb 09 which gives an increase of 28.06% to the 31/12/09. I think the bottom was about then. But you are right there is little point in NZ based funds. A different story off shore though.

[Hoop]

NZSE 50 31/12/08 was 2715.71.
NZSE 50 31/12/09 was 3230.15.

Increase 18.94%

I think it depends what dates you use Doctor. The index was down at 2522.32 at the end of Feb 09 which gives an increase of 28.06% to the 31/12/09. I think the bottom was about then. But you are right there is little point in NZ based funds. A different story off shore though.

Disagree 777 ..I different story off shore??...apart from ozzie (maybe some others?) off shore in 2009 was a mirage for NZ investors.
Most huge gains in those equity markets were offset by their falling currency.
NZ $ index on the other hand rose from .58 to .73

Add that currency value of the shares into the equation and the NZ Stock market yearly gain looks rather huge in comparsion to the rest of the world.